Teacher Wang Yuquan, a "get" subscription columnist, held a one-day course "Outpost Innovation Course: Great Opportunities for a Few People" offline after returning from an investigation in the United States in July. The content of the course is mainly about Mr. Wang's investigation experience in Silicon Valley in the United States to judge seven trends of enterprise innovation and development in the future.
The first trend-SMEs are the main body of innovation
Data:
1. In the United States, it takes 5-8 years and more than 1 million dollars to complete the research and development of a product.
in 1981, the total investment in industrial R&D in the United States was about $5 billion; By 213, the investment in industrial R&D in the United States exceeded $3 billion, a sixfold increase.
3. In 1981, more than 7% of the R&D investment in the United States came from large enterprises with more than 25, employees; Now, the proportion of large enterprises in industrial research and development in the United States has dropped from 7% to 35%.
it takes a long time and a lot of investment to research and develop a product from bud to market. In the past 3 years, the investment in scientific research in the United States has increased sixfold, but the proportion of large companies has dropped from 7% to 35%. This shows that the main body of innovation in the United States is not these big companies, but those small and medium-sized enterprises.
This great change is due to the Bayh-Dole Act passed by the US Congress in 198. The law stipulates that intellectual property rights can retain patents and only transfer its exclusive commercial rights. In this way, more scientific research results can be applied to civilian commercial products and benefit the society, thus stimulating the vitality of American innovation mechanism.
after the promulgation of Bayh-Dole Act, a large number of small and medium-sized enterprises broke out in the United States for three core reasons:
1. Different motives
When a fortune 5 multinational company buys intellectual property rights in colleges and universities, it does not try to turn intellectual property rights into its own commercial interests, but takes products and patents into its own pocket. For example, after Kodak discovered the patent of digital camera, it immediately bought it and shelved it. Because its main business at that time was film business, it knew that if the digital camera business was to be put on the market, its film business would be devastated. So it bought the patent and protected its vested interests. However, if a small company wants to buy this patent or enjoy the rights and interests of experts, it will quickly turn it into a product and put it on the market, so as to make money.
2. Different efficiency
If a research professor wants to transfer his exclusive commercial rights and interests, the cooperation process with large companies is very complicated, but if it is a small company, he can often communicate with people who directly make decisions, so the difference in efficiency directly determines that the exclusive commercial rights and interests of many research professors will be transferred to small and medium-sized enterprises quickly.
3. The cost is greatly reduced
Before the Baidu Act, if you wanted to get a patent from a professor, only large companies might have the financial resources. However, after the promulgation of Bayh-Dole Act, research professors directly transferred exclusive commercial rights without transferring patents, and this cost became very low at once. In the past 3 years, the proportion of R&D investment by large companies in the United States has dropped from 7% to 35%, giving up 35% of the market to small and medium-sized companies in the United States.
data: from 1973 to 1983, 35 fortune 1 companies changed. However, during the decade from 23 to 213, 712 Fortune 1 companies were replaced, that is, 71.2% of Fortune 1 companies were squeezed out. Therefore, due to the establishment of the innovation mechanism of small and medium-sized enterprises, they have flourished and quickly become the main force among enterprises in the world.
the second trend-building block innovation becomes popular
building block innovation means that enterprises cooperate with other enterprises by building blocks, and both sides can quickly obtain the resources needed for development, thus realizing high-speed development, modularity of cooperation and improving social production efficiency.
building block innovation = new barrel theory: enterprises or individuals need to find out their own advantages first, and then get the qualification to cooperate with others and other enterprises, and then join hands to form a new barrel with more water.
From the point of view of technology and products, for example, to build a space shuttle, it needs various design links such as power design, streamlined design, operation panel design, material design and new financing methods. Aircraft manufacturers find the best company products and technologies in all links, and then splice them together like building blocks to form the most perfect space shuttle.
from the upstream and downstream value chain of an enterprise, if a company is very good at making products and technologies, but not good at marketing and promotion, it can find an external marketing and promotion company to do building block innovation together. For example, Luo Ji's "get" team has the ability and experience to get users' traffic, understand users' needs and sell things to users, but it lacks the ability to produce content. The Xiang Li team has the ability to produce products. As soon as the two parties join forces to make a building block innovation, Luo Ji's team will be responsible for product promotion and marketing, and Xiang Li's team will be responsible for content production and production.
The third trend-the super prediction of artificial intelligence
Oxford University's "Technology Replaces Work" reports that 47% of the existing jobs in the United States will be replaced by robots. 77% of jobs in China will probably be replaced by robots, second only to 85% in Ethiopia.
It is a historical trend that robots replace labor, and it will not be transferred by human will. In the future, there are only two types of southeast coastal enterprises: one is to actively introduce robots and use artificial intelligence to improve production efficiency; The other kind is completely defeated by the first kind of enterprises and squeezed out of the market.
in the era of artificial intelligence, machine IQ (people's understanding of machines) is the most important ability. Jobs and Bill Gates have high machine IQ. They know how to control machines and let them serve themselves. The era of artificial intelligence belongs only to those who know how to control machines. Don't regard machines as competitors. They are important partners of mankind in the future.
in the era of artificial intelligence, there are three kinds of people who will never be replaced by machines: innovators, connectors and leaders.
Innovator: It is impossible for machines to innovate from to 1, and the task of innovation still needs to be completed manually.
connector: the connection between machines is emotionless, it is the connection between programs. Emotional connection needs to be carried out between people, and machines can't replace human beings.
leader: each team and organization can only be led by people. Machines can never have leadership, including cohesion, appeal and appeal.
conclusion: the super-prediction in the era of artificial intelligence, the most competitive in the future is actually the super-organism of man-machine combination. In this organism, there are innovators, connectors and leaders, as well as a large number of machines that can be infinitely expanded and extended.
the fourth trend-future innovation in cities where universities gather
Professor Zhou Qiren believes that everything needs density. The more smart people gather, the more good ideas can be inspired, and more innovative companies will emerge. In the history of human development, the emergence of any creativity is not evenly distributed, and innovation is densely distributed. This is why many Internet entrepreneurs are mainly concentrated in the cities of North, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, and information summary, entrepreneur summary, entrepreneurship summary and innovation summary have been formed in these cities.
there are usually a large number of high-quality colleges and universities in cities where innovation-intensive areas are located, and innovative companies will also gather in those cities. For example, in the United States, the city with the highest density of innovation and entrepreneurship is Denver, Colorado, and many of the universities ranked within 1 in the United States are in Denver. Moreover, many single areas in Denver are leading in the United States and even the world. For example, the technology of forest fire prevention in Denver is the most advanced in the United States. Because in the local area, many companies that make forest fire prevention products cooperate with professors of local colleges and universities, which makes forest fire prevention technology have a leading position in the United States.
which city will have the highest density of entrepreneurial innovation in China in the future? To make a simple inference, it is the city with the largest number of full-time undergraduate courses. At present, the top six cities with the largest number of full-time undergraduate courses in China are: Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Xi 'an, Nanjing and Wuhan.
The symbol of the fifth trend-enterprises transforming scientific research achievements is "dual-length system"
Dual-length system: it is a military command system, which emphasizes the separation of the two rights of people and things. In the army, the commander is responsible for directing the war, and the political commissar is responsible for the ideological work of the soldiers. This is the separation of personnel rights. When it is applied to an enterprise, the symbol of becoming a scientific research achievement-transforming enterprise is the "dual-length system". The CEO with rich experience is in charge of specific people, and the chief scientist is in charge of specific technologies and products.
In America, there are 2-year-old scientific geniuses, but there are no 2-year-old industrial experts. Scientific genius = chief scientist, industrial expert = ＝CEO.
It is a very common phenomenon for young people to be chief scientists in the United States. Nowadays, scientific research is actually doing research on the shoulders of predecessors. For many young people, as long as you are good at accumulating and learning from predecessors' experience quickly, you will soon be able to stand on the shoulders of predecessors and realize the continuation of scientific research results quickly.
in business management, the experience, intuition and judgment of the CEO are more important than what you learn from books. If you want to be a successful high-tech enterprise with scientific research achievements as its main business, you should try to make your enterprise become a "dual-length" command system, with people with industrial experience as CEO and those with management skills and R&D achievements as chief scientists, and they should cooperate with each other.
The sixth trend-application innovation is the application of application innovation in ancient China in the future. The seismograph invented by Zhang Heng in the Eastern Han Dynasty is a typical product of application innovation. After ancient earthquakes, houses may collapse, fires, plagues, etc., and if local officials do not handle them properly, there will usually be riots, unrest or rebellion. The army knows the earthquake information and it takes a long time to get to the scene. So there was the seismograph, which detected where the earthquake happened in the fastest time, and immediately sent troops to maintain social stability.
There is still a huge market for applied innovation at present. In essence, the progress of a social innovation is actually driven not by scientists, but by entrepreneurs, because they know the market demand best and the user demand best, which will drive the development of the whole technological innovation reversely.
Take UAV as an example. If this innovation is limited to UAV itself, it is a scientific innovation. However, if this technology is turned into application innovation, you will find that there are many demands in the market: for example, you can use drones to patrol the border, and deploy a drone device every ten kilometers on the border line. The drones frequently fly on a fixed route in these ten kilometers. The border guards only need to sit in their own posts and look at all the pictures sent back by drone cameras, so they can know where the border is in trouble, which can greatly save the number of border patrol troops and their workload.
if entrepreneurs want to do a good job in application innovation, there are two steps:
the first step is to find market business opportunities and key needs of users.
the second step is to find the technology behind the demand and sign an exclusive license agreement (exclusive commercial rights) to protect the achievements of application innovation.
entrepreneurs who master advanced technology will be the first driving force of the future society, because only entrepreneurs can find the demand for applications, not scientists.
the seventh trend-the innovation direction of China manufacturing
China manufacturing is a typical hardware enterprise, and there are two key points in hardware enterprise innovation: the first is that your innovation should be from to 1; Second, you must be able to achieve infinity from 1, so that you can lock this victory and realize a complete closed loop of technological innovation.
a negative example is Tesla. The United States is responsible for Tesla's R&D and innovation from to 1, and China needs to achieve mass production from 1 to 1 million and 1 million, which will lock the whole field of electric vehicles in Tesla. It doesn't matter who invented technology, but who mastered it is the most important thing.
if China's manufacturing industry wants to be ahead in the future, it needs three key capabilities: 1. large-scale, 2. complex products and 3. open manufacturing capability.
mass production: large-scale manufacturing and mass production can be realized.
complex product: a commodity may have more than five parts, so it is defined as a complex product.
open manufacturing capability: flexible production. If the internal standards of your manufacturing enterprise are more perfect and rigid, your open manufacturing ability will be worse.
The upgrading of China's manufacturing industry is only the golden period of the last decade. In the next decade, once the 3D and 4D technologies are mature, China's manufacturing industry will face great dangers. America is not waiting for us, it is just trying to replace us.
Summary: Looking at the seven trends of future innovation from the experience of Silicon Valley in the United States
The first trend, small and medium-sized enterprises will become the main body of innovation
The second trend, building block innovation will become the third trend, artificial intelligence will be the next hot spot for innovation
The fourth trend, and the future innovation will be in the cities where universities gather
The fifth trend, the transformation of scientific research results. Application innovation is the seventh trend in the future
, and the innovative development of China manufacturing is the open manufacturing capability
Thank you for listening to this issue of "Guo Gang Lecture", and we are glad to provide you with valuable knowledge services.
Writer and narrator: Li Guogang