Editor? |? Li Guozheng
Produced? |? Bangning studio
According to the entrepreneurial blueprint of electric vehicles, in the past year (2022), the world should be like this: there have been three-wheeled electric vehicles driven by solar panels installed on the roof. Electric buses filled with natural light have mushroomed in the city, and the soft gray reminds people of luxurious Manhattan apartments. Commercial express uses Matt electric trucks to shuttle around the country, transporting more things with less money.
Electric vehicle startups seem to be an infinite industry topic. In the past few years, startups have raised millions of dollars from investors and potential customers. Investors are told that the future of electric vehicles is just around the corner.
However, before the dream came, the builders of those "future" dreams were already mired in paying bills. In the environment of high interest rates, they are also facing problems such as rising costs, government investigations, lawsuits, turnover of executives, and investor fatigue. For many electric car start-ups, prosperity is becoming a disaster.
Jeff Osborne, a senior analyst at TD Cowen, an American investment bank owned by Toronto-Dominion bank, said that "there will definitely be a low tide", and he focused on sustainable development and mobile technology. "To put it bluntly, these stocks have been seriously out of favor. It is still unclear who will laugh at the end. "
Now, many electric car startups are trying to pay their bills. Auto News combed the latest financial declaration documents of 65,438+00 start-ups and calculated their monthly capital consumption rate, indicating how long each company's cash can support its expenses. According to the cash on hand, 10 companies are ranked as follows:
Of these 65,438+00 electric vehicle start-ups, only 4 have enough cash on hand to pay the operating expenses for one year or more. According to the latest documents provided by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), only two companies can pay cash consumption for more than two years.
Several companies, including Nikola, Faraday Future and Arrival, have been questioned about their ability to continue to operate. Some of them are facing investor lawsuits or government investigations by institutions such as the US Securities and Exchange Commission, while others are dealing with multiple such issues at the same time. Some companies have been the targets of embarrassing short selling reports by investment research companies. To a large extent, the products they promised to investors and the public are still out of reach.
To be sure, companies in all walks of life have this situation, and they are not sure whether they can fulfill their promises. For any startup, success is extremely rare, let alone an automobile manufacturer. However, compared with the good times in 2020, the optimism of the electric vehicle startup market has dropped significantly.
The spring tide rises first.
At that time, the clock was set back to 2020, and both enterprises and investors were delighted with the sudden upsurge of electric vehicles.
At that time, presidential candidate Joe Biden actively proposed incentives to encourage drivers to replace their old cars with American-made electric cars. After being elected, Biden promised to build 550,000 electric vehicle charging stations. Meanwhile, California Governor Gavin gavin newsom issued an executive order requiring all new passenger cars sold in California to achieve zero emissions by 2035.
Then, companies such as FedEx and Amazon invested and reached an agreement to electrify their express fleet. The most attractive thing is Tesla's success. The company's stock rose by more than 650% in 2020, and its market value reached $658 billion by the end of that year, exceeding the sum of Ford Motor Company, General Motors Company and Fiat Chrysler Company at that time. What beautiful flowers!
Now that I think about it, 2020 is actually a transitional stage. Prior to this, "in the American market, the main tone is a bit like letting the market judge and decide, and then developing electric products to see what happens," said S&; P) Stephanie Brinley said, "After 2020, it is obvious that the time has come when government policies are more supportive of promoting the transition to electric vehicles, which means that money can be made here."
The low interest rate at that time also made it relatively easy for startups pursuing Tesla's dreams to raise funds. At that time, at least 20 companies related to electric vehicles went public through special purpose acquisition, including Nicola, Canoo and Lordstown Motors. Even electric car companies like Workhorse Group, which have not been listed in reverse, have received more attention and investors' interest.
Seth Goldstein, a stock strategist at Morningstar, believes that some investors and consumers may be eager to believe the company's ambitious claims because of its declared values, including saving the planet.
"Especially among retail investors," Goldstein added, "when analyzing electric car companies, skepticism may be reduced." Some companies go too far in their promises, even to the point where they are accused of fraud.
▍ "rotten apples"
In September, 2020, Hindenburg Research published a report about Nicholas, calling it "a complicated scam".
The company later admitted that in a video, a truck seemed to be driving on its own power on a desert road, but this was not the case. The us securities and exchange commission launched an investigation into this. In the end, Trevor Milton, the founder of Nicholas, was convicted of fraud. Nicholas reached a settlement with the US Securities and Exchange Commission for $65,438+$25 million.
Coincidentally. In 20021year, J Capital Research, a short-selling company, released a report saying that Faraday's future "is nothing more than a barrel that collects money from American investors and then pours it into the debt black hole created by its founders".
A spokesperson for Faraday Future said that "the inaccurate allegations disclosed in the report are not supported by censored evidence". The Securities and Exchange Commission of the United States subsequently launched an investigation, and the company experienced a revolutionary restructuring.
Now, these companies are facing other pressures.
Both Nicholas and Faraday expressed "great doubts" about their ability to continue to operate in their annual declaration documents in 2022.
In the latest filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission, Nicholas has about seven months' cash to pay the operating expenses. Nikolai started selling battery-electric heavy trucks last year and plans to produce hydrogen fuel cell trucks in the second half of 2023.
Faraday will have less than a month's cash to pay the operating expenses in the future. A spokesperson for Faraday Future said in a statement that the company has raised additional funds and expects to receive an additional $65 million in the next month. Although "some problems have hindered our progress in the past", Faraday plans to deliver cars to the first customers in April in the future.
The spokesperson said that Faraday is "satisfied with the cash flow currently supporting the production and delivery of flagship FF 9 1 Futurist" in the future.
But these "rotten apples" (meaning black sheep) and other problems have begun to consume investors' confidence in other companies' electric vehicles.
Robert Bollinger, founder and CEO of Bollinger Automobile Company, said that some investors see these surveys as the reason why they don't want to continue investing.
In 2020, Brin's financing activities provided more than $20 million in net cash. The following year (202 1), this figure dropped to about $9 million. Mullen bought the controlling stake in Bollinger Band at the end of 20021,but in June 2022, the cash in Bollinger Band could only cover more than one month's operating expenses. At present, the company has just restarted its original products-two electric off-road vehicles, but it is still waiting to start producing Class 4 trucks.
▍ The dilemma of American "Wei Xiaoli"
At first, electric car startups were worried that they could not produce enough cars. Now, they should be worried about sales.
For many electric vehicle startups, last year was full of supply chain restrictions and manufacturing problems, which hindered their efforts to get started quickly.
Now, young companies like RIVIAN, Lucid and Fisker are facing a more urgent challenge this year: adjusting factory operations before cash reserves run out.
In the past few weeks, the results released by these electric car manufacturers show the urgency of their predicament. Although these companies are currently producing cars, their losses continue to increase because it is difficult to rectify the assembly line and boost sales as planned. This weakens their financial buffer and increases the possibility of raising more funds.
RIVIAN 202 1 raised nearly $654.38+0.2 billion in initial public offering, which was once abundant, but last year it burned $6.6 billion in cash. Analysts predict that the company may spend about $6 billion more according to the expected expenditure this year.
Despite the company's cost-cutting measures and efforts to increase the output of its only factory in Normal, Illinois, executives still expect it to be difficult this year. Rivian predicted in February this year that in 2023, the company will produce 50,000 electric trucks, SUVs and trucks, far below Wall Street's expectations. This figure caused the company's share price to fall 18% the next day.
Lucid, a manufacturer of high-end electric vehicles, also performed poorly in some aspects. The company reported that the booking volume in the second half of 2022 dropped from 37,000 vehicles in June to 65,438+28,000 vehicles at the end of February. In 2023, a modest output target was set.
"Last year, we focused on solving production bottlenecks," said Peter rawlinson, CEO of Lucid. "Now it is sales, which is my current focus."
Fisker, a California-based electric vehicle startup, went public through reverse mergers and acquisitions in 2020. The company released a more optimistic profit report and told investors that it plans to launch the first electric SUV Ocean in the coming months. After the February financial report was released, the company's share price soared by 30%.
However, Fiske's time to complete the annual output target is tight, and there is almost no room for mistakes. The company reported that it had $736 million in cash by the end of 2022, and its total expenditure this year is expected to reach $6 1 billion.
Supply chain problems and government approval have been plaguing Fiske, which has about 20 months of cash on hand to support its operations.
Henrik Fisker, CEO, said, "We are working with suppliers who encountered problems during the COVID-19 outbreak. For example, if there is not enough manpower, they may not be able to get some components they need. This must be very difficult. "
In addition, the company has been waiting for certification approval in the United States and Europe.
The spring tide has subsided.
Compared with the first listing in 2020 and 20021,the prospects of these startups have changed greatly.
Once upon a time, investors were enthusiastic about companies that promised to reshape the automobile industry, and the financial market invested a lot of money in the field of electric vehicles, hoping to find the next Tesla. These ambitious car manufacturers have made billions of dollars even before making or selling cars.
According to Dealogic data, in the past three years, investors have invested more than $654.38+023 billion in these electric vehicle start-ups through public offerings, reverse mergers and other financing mechanisms.
However, in the past year, Wall Street's patience with the manufacturing difficulties of these startups began to disappear.
& ltP cl This article is from Bunning Studio, written by Hao, and the copyright belongs to the author. Please contact the author if reproduced in any form. The content only represents the author's point of view and has nothing to do with the car reform.