What are the internal and external conditions for the transformation of China's economic development mode?

At present, the foundation of the transformation of China's economic development mode is still very fragile, short-term problems and long-term problems are intertwined, and unfavorable factors at home and abroad influence each other, making it more difficult to promote the transformation of economic development mode. Population development trend and scientific and technological innovation cycle are the most decisive driving forces of modern economy. They not only determine the change cycle of productivity and consumption power, but also tell us the characteristics of consumption cycle and innovation cycle of labor force through consumption life cycle and work life cycle. Based on the economic cycle formed by the trend of population consumption and the trend of scientific and technological innovation cycle, this paper analyzes the changes of internal and external conditions for China to transform its economic development mode. 1. Changes in internal conditions population and consumption: First, the trend of getting old before getting rich. China has entered an aging society, so it is necessary to plan ahead, make a good development strategy plan, take the initiative to deal with the structural changes of population aging, and adjust development ideas. Secondly, there are a large number of people who need employment. The tolerance of social unemployment must be considered in China's transformation of growth mode, adjustment of economic structure and industrial upgrading. Finally, the change of population stratum structure restricts consumption. Among them, apart from the income and consumption structure gap between urban and rural areas and regions, the polarization structure of wealth distribution is more important, which has brought fundamental constraints to the transformation of development mode. Technology and investment: At present, the R&D investment of developed countries such as the United States, the European Union and Japan accounts for 86% of the total R&D investment of all countries in the world, and more than 90% of the world's invention patents are owned by developed countries; Among the invention patent applications in China, applications from abroad account for 82%; Only about three-tenths of enterprises in China have independent intellectual property rights and core technologies, and 99% of them do not have their own patents. Due to the lack of core technology, cars, mobile phones, computers, program-controlled data machines and other products produced in China have to pay high patent fees abroad; Information, biology, medicine, major equipment manufacturing and other fields are often controlled by people. In terms of R&D investment, China mainly focuses on scientific research institutions far away from production, and the investment in enterprise technology promotion and upgrading is seriously insufficient, which leads to the failure of independent innovation of enterprises to form a virtuous circle and becomes a bottleneck restricting the further development of China's economy. In terms of investment, the growth model of government-led infrastructure construction strategy and foreign-led export-oriented strategy has little potential. As the investment rate has been kept at more than twice the GDP growth rate in recent 20 years, the problems of overproduction and overcapacity in China are very serious. It can be said that the economic development model of "Sandao Pass" (excessive growth of fixed assets investment, excessive money and credit, and excessive foreign trade surplus) which lasted for nearly 20 years has come to an end under the new international and domestic economic situation. In order to reduce the impact of the international financial crisis on China's economy, the China government has adopted a two-pronged approach of fiscal and monetary policies: on the one hand, it has launched a two-year 4 trillion fiscal stimulus plan, the scale of which is equivalent to directly contributing nearly 7% of economic growth every year; On the other hand, the amount of new credit in 2009 was about 9.5 trillion, exceeding the sum of new credit in the previous two years. These policies and measures have achieved positive results, but in the case of low interest rates and long-term excess liquidity in the capital market, there is also the danger that the bursting of the asset bubble will lead to huge wealth effect losses and credit losses. 2. Changes in population and consumption under external conditions: First of all, the sharp decline in the consumption cycle of the "baby boomers" in developed countries (the population born in 1946- 1964 is the main consumption group in western society at present) will definitely reduce China's external consumption demand and change its demand structure. Secondly, the international financial and economic crisis has had a great impact on western consumption, which has also led to the reduction of imports to China, making us have to adjust the current export-oriented policy. In the next few years, the era of China's export-driven growth will basically come to an end. Technology and investment: Developed countries use the international financial crisis to further strengthen monopoly and strengthen intellectual property protection. At the same time, the American economy is slipping into a cyclical trough since World War II. The decline of technological innovation cycle slows down the development of production field; The decline of US dollar's international status, the reduction of global dividend and the rise of world trade protectionism have restricted the United States from obtaining excess profits by raising taxes and technical standards through US dollars. On the one hand, the international financial crisis has brought the American financial system and large enterprises into a period of buffer adjustment, on the other hand, huge aid has led to the continuous expansion of the US fiscal deficit; All these make the investment, import and export of the United States in the world decline, thus weakening its influence on world production and consumption, and reducing the engine role of the United States in world economic development. In addition, the impact of a large number of hot money on the open economy still exists, and these speculative "flying geese" capitals have no substantial promotion to the economies of the affected countries. Trade environment: The world economy is facing the challenges of multiple crises such as food, energy and finance. After the rapid development of emerging economies, the world market is facing the challenge of re-division, economic friction will inevitably escalate, and the world will enter a new round of trade protectionism. At the same time, China's economy is highly dependent on foreign countries, so it is impossible to digest so much excess capacity only by increasing domestic demand, and the international financial crisis has also made it impossible for China's exports to grow at the past speed. It can be said that the foundation of the transformation of China's economic development mode is still very fragile, short-term problems and long-term problems are intertwined, and unfavorable factors at home and abroad influence each other, making it more difficult to promote the transformation of economic development mode. The way of transformation should start with maintaining market fairness and social justice, so as to prevent and control the distortion of development policies by government officials and entrepreneurs, help the people to help the weak, the small and the new, and provide broad market space and strong policy support for ordinary people's employment and entrepreneurship. This is the most important content that needs to be started in the current transformation of economic development mode. If China wants to change its development mode, it must learn from the historical lessons of the world's development mode, actively change its development ideas and adjust its development mode in time according to the changes of internal and external basic conditions. According to Scientific Outlook on Development's people-oriented thought, in order to change the growth mode of the infrastructure construction strategy dominated by government investment and the export-oriented strategy dominated by foreign capital, we must abandon the one-sided pursuit of GDP without considering the input of resources and environment, and reform the assessment mechanism and index system of the government and leading cadres in all walks of life as soon as possible. It is necessary to shift from the concept of supporting the excellent, the strong and the foreign capital to supporting the weak without restraining the strong, focusing on supporting the weak, helping the poor, supporting the elderly, supporting the young and supporting the new, and focusing on improving the ability of independent innovation; Adjust the incentive and restraint mechanism of macro, meso and micro policies, focus on preventing and controlling the investment impulses of governments, banks and large enterprises at all levels, strictly control overcapacity, change from encouraging expansion to encouraging innovation and industrial upgrading, focus on adjusting the balance between total supply and total demand, and focus on adjusting the imbalance between resource distribution and income distribution; Focus on supporting the development of small enterprises, promote the employment rate of vulnerable groups, increase investment in education, training and medical care for poor population groups, and enhance their viability. What socialist market economy needs is market fairness and social justice. Unfair market, unjust society and high economic growth cannot bring people a general sense of happiness and security. Therefore, preventing and controlling the distortion of development policies by government officials and entrepreneurs, helping the poor, helping the small and helping the new, and providing broad market space and strong policy support for ordinary people's employment and entrepreneurship are the most important contents that need to be started to change the mode of economic development at present.