■? Cost pain point is the source.
The cost of large-scale promotion of electric vehicles is a difficult problem. To solve the cost dilemma, car companies mostly hope on battery suppliers: technological breakthroughs in supply chain bring about cost reduction. A few car companies choose to solve their own problems, and Weilai and Tesla are the representatives of this school: the former chooses the power exchange mode and the latter improves the battery technology.
In the second half of 2020, the two companies successively released plans to reduce the cost of electric vehicles. In August, Weilai released the battery leasing scheme (BaaS), which shifted the battery cost and lowered the threshold for users to buy cars by separating vehicles from electricity and leasing batteries. In September, Tesla Battery Day, Musk announced the "five-step" plan, and the new battery technology will reduce the cost of the whole vehicle by more than half.
"Weilai's BaaS service model"
At present, these two methods are still in the exploratory stage, and it is hard to say which is better. However, compared with Tesla's dead battery technology, Wei Lai chose to put eggs in different baskets.
The essence of power exchange is a business model-reconstructing the value of power batteries, which is what Weilai is good at. Before the breakthrough of battery technology, reduce the cost of vehicles by changing electricity; Once the technology breaks through, Weilai can also "sit back and relax". In Wei Lai's own words: "Give users one more choice" is actually giving themselves one more way out.
It seems that inspired by Weilai, many China car companies have taken action. In addition to car companies, power exchange operators such as Aodong New Energy, Botan Technology and Space-time Electric are also major players in the field of power exchange, and some companies have even been deeply involved in power exchange for more than ten years. From the latest development, early players have seen the possibility of profit.
■? Profit in a single scenario
In terms of operation, the power exchange mode has been initially profitable in taxi scenes in some cities.
Aodong New Energy is an earlier enterprise in China. In 2000, it began to explore the technology of power exchange, and it was widely promoted on 20 16. Among the first batch of pilot cities such as Beijing, Guangzhou, Xiamen and Lanzhou, Guangzhou and Xiamen broke even in more than two years, and the utilization rate of power exchange stations remained at 60%-80%.
Blue Valley Wisdom is a holding subsidiary of BAIC New Energy, which is mainly responsible for power exchange and battery recycling. At present, it has demonstrated and operated power exchange stations in more than 20 cities across the country. Blue Valley's wisdom experience also proves that in cities where land and power costs are insensitive, the operation link is already profitable.
The profit of power exchange mode depends on many key factors: station construction cost, electricity price, battery cost, labor cost, vehicle scale and operational efficiency.
Among them, the construction cost and electricity price are hard costs, which are different in different cities. In second-tier cities like Xiamen, land prices and electricity prices are low, and operators can break even faster; In a first-tier city like Beijing, the land price is expensive, the electricity price is expensive, and the economy of electricity exchange is greatly reduced.
Compared with the invariable factors such as land and electricity, the favorable variable of power exchange is the maturity of power exchange technology. With the intelligentization of power exchange stations, some power exchange stations can be unattended, and reducing manpower can greatly reduce operating costs.
The intelligentization of the power exchange station has also brought about the improvement of operational efficiency. In the past, it took 3-5 minutes for a car to change electricity. Blue Valley Wisdom and Geely Automobile's latest intelligent power exchange station can shorten the power exchange time to 90 seconds.
From the beginning of renting and public transportation, the mode of changing electricity is constantly infiltrating into the network car market. With the increase of travel layout of car companies, the scale of network car continues to increase, which is expected to further promote the development of power exchange mode.
Judging from the known layout, BAIC New Energy has begun to test the water for the power grid, and based on its light travel platform, it has launched a number of EU300 quick-change models in Sanya, Hainan. Geely Automobile also plans to launch electric vehicles around Cao Cao's travel platform.
Another major part of the cost of power stations is spare batteries. Generally speaking, power stations should reserve a lot of spare batteries, and large power stations should reserve more than 20 batteries. In the small-scale demonstration stage, the cost pressure of battery replacement is not obvious, but with the large-scale development of power replacement mode, the cost pressure of battery will gradually become prominent. In the next stage of the development of power exchange mode, battery cost will become the most urgent problem for operators.
■? Capital leverage incites the trading ecology of power and money.
If the power exchange mode wants to run smoothly, not only the operators should make profits, but also the participants in the whole industrial chain should have appropriate interest distribution. In this regard, the industry's understanding is: with the help of financial leverage, incite the ecology of electricity exchange.
The core of the business ecology of the power exchange model is to transfer costs and share costs-first set up a battery asset management company to transfer battery costs, and then share costs through battery life management.
This means that battery asset management companies must be established in many ways, and car companies, battery companies, operating companies and financial institutions all need to become ecological participants.
Wei Lai has demonstrated the transfer cost. The battery asset management company jointly established by Weilai includes Weilai, Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd., Hubei Ketou, Guotai Junan and other parties.
Weilai also promoted the separation of vehicle and electricity in property rights, found a legal basis for the centralized management and operation of batteries, and cleared a heavy obstacle for the latecomers.
Aodong New Energy has a similar layout, and a battery bank will be established in the near future to centrally manage battery assets.
Whether it is called a battery asset management company or a battery bank, it is a carrier to transfer battery costs. If the power exchange mode wants to develop on a large scale, such a platform is necessary-otherwise, no enterprise can bear the huge battery cost alone.
The battery replacement ecology also involves battery life cycle management. At present, the main idea of the industry is to use it step by step, and then disassemble and recycle it. Two-wheeled motorcycles, three-wheeled electric vehicles, low-speed electric vehicles and energy storage stations are the main scenes of battery cascade utilization.
Ideally, the battery that has been used step by step will be dismantled and recycled back to the battery enterprise. Many battery companies, such as Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd., said that if the battery circulation link can be opened, the battery price is expected to be further reduced.
■? No standardization of solutions.
The commercial ecology of power exchange is becoming clearer, but it is difficult to unify the battery standards, which is still the core problem limiting the large-scale development of power exchange. Ten years ago, the power exchange model was stifled; Ten years later, the problem still exists.
The battery standard is unified, which is very difficult on the technical level, involving many standards such as battery specification and size, mechanical connection, electrical connection, management system and so on.
Beyond technology, the deeper difficulty lies in the sensitivity of car companies to market discourse power and product differentiation. In a short time, it is difficult for car companies to accept battery standardization.
Faced with this situation, the power exchange operators put forward a compromise strategy: to build an enjoyable power exchange platform without requiring car companies to unify battery standards.
In order to adapt to the battery size of different car companies, the power exchange station should be redundantly designed according to the maximum battery size of the cooperative car companies. At the same time, operating companies should also communicate with car companies, so that car companies can install a communication module in the battery pack to realize information interaction with the power station when changing electricity.
It should be noted that the power exchange technology itself is different. At present, the mainstream route has plug-in power stations, represented by Aodong New Energy and Blue Valley Wisdom; Bolt power station, represented by Weilai; Box-by-box power station represented by Botan Technology. Car companies should also adopt the same technical route as the power exchange platform when choosing to cooperate with the power exchange station.
"Weilai Automobile Quick Power Exchange Latch Mechanism"
Although there are many difficulties, from the feedback of operating companies, car companies generally have a high willingness to cooperate with * * * to enjoy the power station change. At present, Aodong New Energy has reached cooperation with six car companies: BAIC, GAC, SAIC, FAW, Dongfeng and Changan. Blue Valley Wisdom also plans to launch a power exchange platform that can be compatible with five models of different car companies at the same time next year.
The power battery is caught in the technical bottleneck, and it is difficult to balance the cost, safety and performance, but it also gives the opportunity to re-enter the stage for the power exchange mode. Realizing profit in a single operation scenario is not enough to prove the value of the power exchange model. The key to the popularization of power exchange is the business model with battery assets as the core. The business story of changing electricity has just begun. (Text/car home? Xiao Ying)