The cities that were the first to tighten controls on the property market after the epidemic were the first to upgrade their purchase restriction policies - two months later, Hangzhou and Dongguan have recently stepped up controls to close past policy loopholes.
Since July this year, more than 10 cities across the country have tightened controls on the property market. The reason behind this is not only because the market fever in these cities has not subsided in recent times, but also to prevent further overheating of the market during the "Golden September and Silver Ten". In the context of the recent emphasis by the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the Central Bank and other departments on "housing for housing, not for speculation" and "three stability", the industry expects that more cities across the country will follow suit and tighten, especially in some hotspot cities with overheated markets, which may trigger stronger Strong control measures.
The continued popularity has led to increased regulation
The first "10,000 people shake" real estate was born, the "20,000 people shook" came, the "40,000 people shook" appeared, and the "50,000 people shook" "People Shake" came out... The sensational title of the self-media article recorded the madness of Hangzhou's property market in the past few months.
The so-called “10,000-person lottery” refers to some properties with cheaper prices and better location conditions, attracting tens of thousands of people to participate in the lottery for house purchase. More and more people are applying, and the winning rate for real estate projects is getting lower and lower. "The price of new houses is cheaper than the price of surrounding second-hand houses, so everyone is rushing to apply for the lottery." Xiao Zhou, a well-known real estate agency in Hangzhou, gave an example. The average price of one of the "Internet celebrity" properties is 28,000 yuan, while the surrounding second-hand houses are The average price is more than 40,000 yuan, and the price inversion is too obvious.
After the epidemic eased, Hangzhou’s booming property market introduced a new regulatory policy on July 2, which required that housing acquired by high-level talents through priority purchase should not be listed for trading within five years. Yesterday, two months later, Hangzhou tightened controls again, requiring an increase in the supply of residential land and continuing to implement the "limit housing price and land price competition" transfer method for residential land; requiring the strengthening of prudent management of housing loans, strict implementation of differentiated housing credit policies, and strict Implement income recognition standards and monthly payment-to-income ratio requirements, and strictly prevent consumer loans, personal operating loans, etc. from being used for home purchases in violation of regulations.
Behind the upgraded purchase restrictions is the heating up of the property market. Property market data for 70 large and medium-sized cities in July released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that Hangzhou’s new home sales price index was at the mid-range level, but the month-on-month increase in the second-hand home price index ranked second in the country. According to statistics from the Shell Research Institute, the cumulative residential land transactions in Hangzhou from January to August increased by 21.3% year-on-year, and the cumulative area of ??new home transactions from January to August increased by 10.9% year-on-year. In August, the new home viewing index and subscription index increased slightly month-on-month. The transaction cycle has been shortened for two consecutive months.
Similarly, Dongguan has also recently strengthened detail management based on the previous "7·25 New Deal", especially the purchase restriction groups and the sales restriction period. The cumulative planned construction area of ??residential land sold in Dongguan City from January to August increased by 178.9% year-on-year, and the cumulative area of ??new house transactions increased by 14.8% year-on-year. The recovery speed is better than that of cities at the same level. At the same time, data from the Shell Research Institute shows that Dongguan’s subscription index increased month-on-month in August. Rising, the new home transaction cycle continued to shorten in August, market demand continued to be released, and the market heat continued unabated.
Closing loopholes to curb speculation
When the policy was introduced yesterday, the Hangzhou Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau explained that the move was to implement the principle that "houses are for living in, not for use." "speculation" requirements, support reasonable owner-occupied demand, curb speculation and real estate speculation, and promote the stable and healthy development of Hangzhou's real estate market.
From the perspective of the industry, the key to curbing speculation in real estate is to close policy loopholes and prevent real estate speculators from taking advantage of them. Previously, Beijing launched a series of regulatory measures intensively after the "March 17 New Deal" in 2017, which has a strong deterrent effect.
The regulatory measures introduced by Hangzhou in July were considered to be aimed at “real estate speculation” through the new talent policy. Recently, Hangzhou's talent introduction has hit a new high: as of the end of July this year, the number of newly introduced college students under the age of 35 in Hangzhou this year reached 234,072, exceeding the total last year. This new policy aims to close the loophole of "relocating and settling for real estate speculation". The latest policy clarifies that those who settle in Hangzhou as parents and their adult children must have been an independent home-buying family for three years, and can purchase newly built commercial housing and second-hand housing within the purchase limit. Previously, parents who relied on their children to settle down could buy a house after settling in an urban area; but this time the policy is clear and a three-year waiting period must be met. "This is also to prevent various types of household real estate speculation." said Yan Yuejin, research director of the E-House Research Institute think tank center.
Look to Dongguan again.
Dongguan’s new policy clarifies the time for continuous payment and the implementation methods for donation and transfer of housing. "The policy is to crack down on real estate speculation, check for deficiencies and fill in the gaps, cut off the entry mechanism for real estate speculation, and provide policy guarantees for the stable development of the market." Pan Hao, senior analyst at Shell Research Institute, analyzed.
In Pan Hao’s view, Hangzhou’s new policy at this time is a complement and refinement of past policies under the background that the national real estate market as a whole requires “housing for living, not speculation” and “three stability”. Prevent market overheating during the "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" periods.
Overheating cities will face regulatory upgrades
In addition to continuing to implement "limits on house prices and land price competition", strengthening prudent management of housing loans, and adjusting the identification standards for households without houses, Hangzhou's new policy also requires Real estate companies should give priority to meeting the house purchase needs of households without houses: For hot commodity housing projects, real estate development companies should formulate sales plans based on the principle of giving priority to meeting the house purchase needs of households without houses, and increase the proportion of housing supply for households without houses.
In the past two months, more than 10 cities including Hangzhou, Dongguan, Ningbo, Zhengzhou, Shenzhen, Nanjing, Changchun, and Haikou have introduced control policies to cool down the property market. The industry expects that more places will follow suit.
“The direction of regulatory policies changed in July and August. From the overall easing in the first half of the year, a tightening trend began.” Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline Real Estate, believes that the first half of 2020, when real estate regulation was loose, has passed , Tightening of regulation is inevitable, and it is expected that at least more than 30 cities will introduce tightening policies with different degrees of intensity in the near future.
“Especially in the second half of this year, hot cities are expected to focus on stabilizing housing prices and combating real estate speculation.” Yan Yuejin analyzed that as the Yangtze River Delta, which is the first to recover in the property market, should focus on stabilizing housing prices and combating real estate speculation. Housing prices and the implementation of "housing for living, not speculation" are important ideas for real estate development. In the future, it is expected that some cities with overheated housing prices will also upgrade control measures in terms of home purchase policies, loan policies, and real estate transaction order.