The lithium iron phosphate industry chain involves the upstream raw materials phosphoric acid, iron phosphate, and lithium carbonate, the midstream cathode material lithium iron phosphate, and the downstream lithium iron phosphate batteries and complete vehicles. The back-end market also includes power scrap lithium iron phosphate batteries. Dismantling, echelon utilization and wet recycling.
In 2019, new energy vehicle sales experienced negative growth due to a sharp decline in subsidies. It is expected that my country's new energy vehicle subsidies will no longer decline in 2020, but the pressure to reduce the cost of bicycles still exists, and lithium iron phosphate batteries are relatively expensive in terms of cost. Sanyuan has a greater advantage and has once again entered the market's sight. This article mainly explains the recovery logic of lithium iron batteries in the power field, emphasizing the application advantages of lithium iron batteries in the field of low-end passenger cars and the active exploration of some companies in this regard.
Battery performance is determined by the material performance level. As a type of lithium battery, lithium iron phosphate batteries (LFP batteries) have obvious advantages and disadvantages: low cost, high cycle times, poor low-temperature performance, and energy density. Low. Special indicator data determines that the share of LFP batteries in new energy vehicles is gradually being eroded by ternary batteries with higher power density and energy density. The current installed capacity is mainly concentrated in passenger cars and special vehicles. The installed capacity in the field of passenger cars The share is lower. However, with the substantial changes in subsidy policies, the pursuit of high energy density of ternary batteries has encountered cost resistance. Under the pressure of reducing costs, looking for other batteries to replace ternary batteries is an idea that car companies have always adhered to. LFP batteries, which are 10-15% cheaper than ternary batteries, have become one of the options that car companies are considering for low-end passenger models.
The cost of LFP batteries is 10-15% lower than that of ternary batteries. The difference is mainly reflected in the material systems of the two batteries. In the ternary battery system, the battery accounts for 40% of the total vehicle cost, of which the ternary cathode material accounts for about 30% of the battery cost. The ternary cathode material has a high content of cobalt, nickel and manganese valuable metals. Although the price of cobalt has dropped from the highest point of 680,000 yuan/ton to 280,000 yuan/ton, plus nickel manganese salt and lithium carbonate/lithium hydroxide materials and processing costs, the ternary cathode material has a high content of valuable metals. The price of yuan materials is in the range of 120,000-180,000 yuan/ton. The LFP cathode is mainly composed of iron phosphate and lithium carbonate. With the lower price of the two, the final LFP cathode price is only 41,000-45,000 yuan/ton. In addition, LFP batteries mainly use dry separators, and the price is lower than the wet separators used in ternary batteries. Ultimately reflected in the cell price, the cost of LFP cells can reach 0.55 yuan/Wh, while the cost of ternary cells is around 0.65 yuan/Wh. The price difference between the two will exist for a long time due to the price difference of cathode materials. Adding the pack link, the absolute value of the price difference between the two is about 0.15 yuan.
In 2019, subsidies for new energy vehicles dropped sharply and local subsidies were cancelled, resulting in the average subsidy for a bicycle falling by as much as 70%. In absolute terms, the subsidy amount for mini cars and small cars has plummeted from the range of 40,000 to 50,000 yuan to less than 18,000 yuan. Cost reduction will be the main line for low-end passenger cars in the next 2-3 years.
Lithium iron phosphate has a greater cost advantage than ternary batteries. From the cathode material, to the battery system, to the entire vehicle, and even the entire use process. The cost reduction path comes from the continuous decline in material prices and the improvement of iron-lithium battery technology. Taking a small car with 40 kWh of electricity as an example, the ternary battery costs about 40,000 yuan and has a range of 350 kilometers; while the lithium iron phosphate battery costs 32,000 yuan and has a range of 300 kilometers; it sacrifices 50 kilometers of theoretical range (the actual range is reduced by 20 -30 kilometers) can bring about 8,000 yuan of cost reduction space to car companies.
On the usage side, the average annual usage cost of iron-lithium models during the entire life cycle is about 4,300 yuan lower than that of ternary models. Therefore, we believe that the switch from ternary to iron-lithium for low-end models is the most common goal orientation of car companies and consumers.
Judging from the new car recommendation catalog of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, entering 2020, the proportion of iron-lithium batteries in passenger cars has rebounded significantly. The latest recommended catalog shows that the proportion of iron-lithium batteries in passenger cars has exceeded 20. Among them, the facelifted models of SAIC Roewe ei6 plug-in, Roewe eRX5 plug-in and MG MG6 plug-in are also confirmed to be replaced with lithium iron phosphate batteries. This is a change in car companies' new understanding of lithium-iron batteries. Compared with ternary batteries, lithium-iron batteries save costs and have little impact on performance. The plug-in hybrid model itself has a charge of about 15 degrees, and the battery weighs 120 kilograms. Switching from ternary to iron-lithium, with the same capacity, the battery weight increases by only 10 kilograms, and the cruising range is affected by about 5 kilometers, but the cost drops by 3,000 yuan. We expect this trend to continue to strengthen in 2020, and the use of iron-lithium in passenger cars is expected to accelerate.
In the development process of China's automobile industry, independent car companies have always been in a passive situation, but there are still some models that have become sacred cars among the people. The term "magic car" is used because they stand out in the fierce competition in the auto market and create sales myths and high-quality reputation. China's domestically produced sacred cars, headed by Wuling Hongguang, have left a deep impression on consumers with their high quality, low price, durability and low cost. Wuling Hongguang is even known as the "Qiu Mingshan Divine Car".
The first model of Wuling Hongguang, an A-class MPV model owned by SAIC-GM-Wuling, was launched in 2010 and was positioned as a minivan. Wuling Hongguang's perfect balance between power and economy, as well as its performance in handling and safety, have subverted people's traditional impression of commercial vehicles. Since its launch, the car has topped the sales rankings in the MPV segment for seven consecutive years, with monthly sales reaching 82,500 units at its peak. In 2019, Wuling Hongguang sold a total of 375,000 vehicles, ranking fourth in domestic car sales and second among independent models, second only to Haval H6. As of the end of 2019, the cumulative sales of Wuling Hongguang series models reached 4.5 million units. Strong user accumulation, excellent word-of-mouth feedback and extremely high cost performance are important factors for the continued sales of Wuling Hongguang series models.
In addition, the sales volume of Wuling Rongguang, another special-purpose vehicle owned by SAIC-GM-Wuling, also reached 160,000 units in 2019, ranking 7th in the 2019 independent model sales rankings. Wuling Rongguang, the first model launched by Wuling Rongguang in 2008, is positioned as a minivan and can be used for both commercial and cargo purposes.
In 2012, Wuling Rongguang was fully upgraded. The extended version extended the length of the vehicle to 4490mm, the width and height to 1615mm and 1900mm respectively. It upgraded from the original 7 seats to 9 seats, with more space. After three generations of facelifts, Wuling Rongguang has now expanded to multiple versions such as V, S, extended version, single and double rows and small trucks.
Independent car companies are the main force in electrification, but the electrification rate of the top 10 independent models sold in 2019 is relatively low. Only 3 models have corresponding electric vehicles on sale. Independent car companies have not effectively used the high sales and high reputation effects of hot-selling models to develop the electric market. On the one hand, models based on gasoline vehicle platforms that are purely telephone-based will have certain disadvantages in terms of battery life; on the other hand, competition between gasoline-electric models on the same platform is also one of the considerations for car companies. We believe that car companies are more willing to launch new cars based on pure electric platforms to enter the market, but new platforms do not equal new brands. The penetration effect of hot-selling brands in the consumer market is significantly better than that of new brands.
In the second half of 2019, SAIC-GM-Wuling began the electrification process of related popular models. Wuling Hongguang and Rongguang took the lead, and both entered the 326th batch of new car announcement lists released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. Both will launch pure electric models with high and low endurance versions, and will be subdivided into multi-functional versions and transportation versions. From the perspective of battery matching, the Wuling Hongguang high-endurance version is equipped with lithium iron phosphate batteries from CATL. The battery parameters are (335V/125Ah), which is equivalent to a charged capacity of 41.88KWh.
The low-endurance version is equipped with a lithium iron phosphate battery provided by Guoxuan Hi-Tech. The parameters are (323V/105Ah), which is equivalent to a charged capacity of 33.92KWh. Wuling Rongguang is exclusively equipped with lithium iron phosphate batteries by Penghui Energy. The battery parameters of the high-endurance version are (368V/113Ah), which is equivalent to 41.58 kilowatt hours of electricity, and the battery parameters of the low-endurance version are (314V/113Ah), which is equivalent to 35.48 kilowatt hours of electricity.
Following the announcement of the new car, the two sacred cars quickly entered the recommended catalog of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. According to the 11th batch of recommended catalogs in 2019, the high-range version of Wuling Rongguang models has a range of 310 kilometers and an energy density of 131Wh/kg; the low-range version has a range of 260 kilometers and an energy density of 126Wh/kg. The high-endurance version of Wuling Rongguang model has 41.6 kilowatt-hours of electricity, a range of 300 kilometers, and an energy density of 125Wh/kg; the low-endurance version has 35.4 kilowatt-hours of electricity, a range of 252 kilometers, and an energy density of 125Wh/kg. In addition, the Wuling van truck listed on Guangxi Automobile has a cruising range of 270 kilometers and is supplied with lithium iron phosphate batteries by Penghui Energy.
SAIC-GM-Wuling launched 3 brands in one go based on its sacred Wuling Hongguang and Rongguang fuel vehicles, with a total of 10 models of pure electric vehicles. In addition, in the field of passenger cars, SAIC-GM-Wuling is also about to launch low-end passenger models such as E300/E300L, which is expected to open up space for small car penetration. We assume that the sales penetration rate of Wuling Hongguang and Rongguang models is 20, and adding the E100/200 increase and the E300 new model, Shangtong's five electric vehicle transformation is expected to drive the increase in iron lithium battery to more than 5GWh.
In the post-subsidy era, car companies’ acceptance of lithium iron batteries has been greatly improved. Lithium iron batteries are not only widely used in low-end passenger cars, but also begin to appear in mid- to high-end models. Battery figure. In the mid-to-high-end field, BYD took the lead in launching the latest blade battery, which adopts the lithium iron phosphate route. The system energy density reaches a maximum of 160Wh/kg. The modified battery is used in its high-end model Hanshang, with an actual energy density of 140Wh/kg and a maximum range of 605 kilometers. , is the biggest breakthrough in the battery life of iron-lithium models.
To put it simply, the so-called "blade battery" is a large battery cell with a length greater than 0.6 meters developed by BYD. It is a long battery cell solution, arranged together in an array, like a "blade" Insert it into the battery pack as well. Making the battery cells flat and elongated involves improving the integration efficiency of the battery pack. The improvement is mainly reflected in the space utilization of the power battery pack. The volume energy density can be increased by 50; the weight energy density has also been improved. On the other hand, the long battery cell solution is directly connected to the shell on both sides, which ensures that the battery core has a large enough heat dissipation area to conduct internal heat to the outside, thereby matching higher energy density. In terms of cost, the cost of blade batteries is about 10% lower than that of batteries with traditional structures, which can effectively save battery costs.
The squeeze on the share of iron-lithium batteries by ternary batteries began in 2016. In the field of passenger cars, ternary batteries quickly replaced iron-lithium batteries, and the installed capacity share gradually increased. In the field of special vehicles, the installed capacity of ternary batteries has also increased significantly. However, in the field of passenger cars, due to policy reasons, ternary battery support has not been released. Throughout 2019, my country's power battery installed capacity reached 62GWh, passenger cars installed 42GWh, passenger cars installed 14.55GWh, and special vehicles installed 5.4GWh. Passenger cars have become the main field driving battery installations. Therefore, the share of ternary batteries in the total installed capacity has increased rapidly, reaching 40GWh, with an installed capacity share of 65%, an increase of 10GWh from 2018; while the installed capacity of iron lithium batteries is only 20GWh, the installed capacity has experienced a growth bottleneck for three consecutive years, and the installed capacity share has dropped to 32%. .
Based on the shift from subsidy changes to cost-oriented changes, we are firmly optimistic about the continued improvement of iron-lithium supporting facilities in the passenger car field. The recovery of iron lithium in new energy automobile applications is a long-term process, and its share in power installed capacity will maintain a stable proportion.
From the perspective of a single model, the production and sales scale of the electric version of Wuling Rongguang/Hongguang Shenche is expected to reach 100,000 units, and the installed capacity will reach 4GWh; in the long term, we estimate that 50% of domestic A00 models, 30% of A0 models, and 10% of A Class cars and 30 plug-in models are expected to be equipped with LFP batteries. Based on the sales forecast data of each model in 2020, the increase in LFP battery installed capacity will be as high as 10GWh, and the installed capacity of iron lithium will reach 30.37GWh, reaching 36GWh and 42.6GWh respectively in 2021-2022. GWh. As the low-end models of global mainstream car companies have begun to turn to LFP batteries, we believe that in the long run, LFP batteries will have more room for growth in the field of new energy vehicles.
The lithium iron phosphate industry chain involves upstream raw materials phosphoric acid, iron phosphate, and lithium carbonate, midstream cathode material lithium iron phosphate, and downstream lithium iron phosphate pools and complete vehicles. The back-end market also includes power scrap lithium iron phosphate batteries. Dismantling, echelon utilization and wet recycling. From the perspective of industrial concentration and corporate purity, the cathode and battery factory business is relatively pure and is the first choice for investment.
CATL: The largest share of iron-lithium batteries, focusing on passenger cars
CATL is the absolute leader in the battery sector, with ternary and iron-lithium batteries running in parallel. Of the 32GWh installed capacity in 2019, 21GWh was ternary and 11GWh was iron-lithium. Lithium-iron batteries are mainly used in buses. Since the second half of 2019, the company's lithium-iron batteries have begun to be used in passenger models. This supply of lithium-iron batteries to Tesla is expected to further establish the company's industry position in the lithium-iron segment. In terms of ternary batteries, the company has established cooperative relationships with many mainstream car companies at home and abroad, and has set up battery factories in Europe. In the future, the company is expected to benefit from the outbreak of electric vehicles in Europe and further consolidate its market share. High-growth logic is expected Keep delivering.
Penghui Energy: a low-cost player focusing on LFP power batteries
The company is a small but beautiful comprehensive supplier of all-round lithium batteries, with a strong presence in consumption, power (including light power), and storage. It is involved in both energy and power tool fields. In terms of power batteries, the company has been deeply tied to SAIC-GM-Wuling for 19 years, providing 60 battery packages for the Baojun E100/200 series. At the same time, it has won the exclusive package for SAIC-Wuling Rongguang pure electric models. In 2019, the installed capacity of power batteries was 0.7GWh, ranking among the top 10 in China. The company has shifted its focus to lithium iron batteries in the power battery business. At the same time, in the energy storage sector, it supplies backup power for tower base stations and actively expands the European energy storage market. In the future, the company will benefit from the explosive demand for batteries such as power, 3C digital and energy storage, and its profit elasticity will be strong.
Defang Nano: LFP cathode material market share ranks first, and the low-cost solution cannot be copied
The company is currently the purest lithium iron phosphate cathode material target in the A-share market. In 2018, nano-lithium iron phosphate material revenue was 1.01 billion yuan, accounting for 96.13% of the company's revenue. The company is the core supplier of lithium iron materials for CATL. Its shipments of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials have grown rapidly. In 2019, the shipment volume was 22,000 tons, of which the supply ratio to CATL reached 72%, accounting for 60% of its procurement volume. The company's lithium iron cathode leads the industry in terms of process technology and cost. It adopts "autothermal evaporation liquid phase synthesis nano-lithium iron phosphate technology". The raw materials are lithium carbonate, nitric acid, iron source and phosphoric acid. It is similar to the industry's traditional "lithium carbonate phosphate". There are significant differences between the "iron" hydrothermal method and the low-cost path cannot be copied.
Xiangtan Electrochemical: Potential undervalued iron-lithium cathode target
The company is a holding company under the Xiangtan Municipal State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the Xiangtan Electrochemical Department. Its main business is the production and sales of electrolytic manganese dioxide and new energy batteries. Materials, centralized urban sewage treatment, industrial trade, etc. It is a high-quality supplier for secondary battery manufacturers such as Hunan Shanshan, Qingdao Qianyun, and Thornton New Energy.
The company holds 16 shares of Yuneng New Energy. Yuneng New Energy is one of the core suppliers of lithium iron phosphate, and its clients include CATL, BYD and Yiwei Lithium Energy. Yuneng New Energy currently has a lithium iron phosphate cathode production capacity of 30,000 tons, with shipments exceeding 10,000 tons in 2019. The sales channel was established with the help of Xiangtan Electrochemical. The company and German Nanotech are in the first echelon of iron-lithium cathodes, and the products have high compaction density.
Guanghua Technology: LFP Rising Star, the circular industry chain has become a reality
The company’s main business is PCB electronic chemicals and chemical reagents. In 2017, it entered the lithium battery materials industry and has successively deployed battery recycling, phosphoric acid Iron lithium & iron phosphate project, iron lithium cascade utilization project. In the first half of 2019, the company's lithium battery materials business scale accounted for 18%, an increase of 5 percentage points from the end of 2018. It is expected that the proportion will reach 19% for the whole year of 2019. The company has built an annual production capacity of 10,000 tons of iron phosphate. Based on the wet purification technology of electronic chemicals, the company's iron phosphate is of superior quality and the product sells for a price higher than the market. The lithium iron phosphate cathode production line has been completed and is currently being verified. In the back-end market, the company has deployed power battery recycling business and is one of the five demonstration companies. The company has full-chain capabilities from cascade utilization to wet processing, and is a direct beneficiary of the increased volume of battery scrapping. The secondary utilization business of iron lithium batteries has gradually increased in volume and has become a growth point for the company's revenue and profits.
China Baoan: Subsidiary Beterui is one of the leaders in LFP cathode materials
The company holds a 75% stake in Beterui, which is a rising star in the cathode field and is growing at an impressive rate. At present, Beterui's main cathode material products include NCA single crystal products, polycrystalline products and LFP series. The company started producing cathode material lithium iron phosphate in 2015. In 2018, it became the third largest company in the domestic lithium iron phosphate market. The current production capacity is 30,000 tons. The 15,000 tons production capacity in Changzhou is expected to be put into operation in the middle of the year. The shipment volume in 2019 is about 13,000 tons. ton. The company's cathode materials' revenue ratio has also increased rapidly, from 9.70 in 2015 to 36.80 in 2018, gradually becoming the company's main revenue business. As the company's production capacity is further released in the future, the impact of cathode materials on the company's profitability will become more obvious.