In the previous article, we analyzed and looked forward to the background and impact of the upgraded version of the "Plastic Restriction Order", and introduced the advantages and disadvantages of several degradable plastic products. We believe that in the policy promotion Next, industry demand will explode!
In this article, we will specifically calculate the market space of degradable plastics in several major scenarios such as takeout lunch boxes and online shopping bags, and further pursue the " Market opportunities under the influence of the "Plastic Restriction Order" policy!
01
Timetable for the new “plastic restriction order”
An alternative market worth hundreds of billions is taking shape
In recent years, the Internet High popularity and the rapid rise of the "lazy economy" have led to explosive growth in online shopping, takeout and other industries, and the corresponding use of takeout lunch boxes, online shopping bags, and plastic bags has surged, and these discarded plastic products have become A new source of "white pollution" has emerged.
As the global demand for improving the environment becomes stronger and stronger, various countries have successively introduced or improved their own "plastic restriction" policies to address the pollution problem of disposable plastic products. The use of degradable plastic products is considered The most effective solution to eradicate "white pollution".
In January this year, my country launched an upgraded version of the 2007 "Plastic Restriction Order" - the "Opinions on Further Strengthening the Control of Plastic Pollution" issued by the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Ecology and Environment.
Compared with the 2007 "Plastic Restriction Order", the new version of the "Plastic Restriction Order" puts forward stricter requirements in the manufacturing and use of plastic products, proposing a comprehensive ban on the import of waste plastics, express delivery, takeaway, etc. Or limit the use of single-use plastics. In addition, enterprises that violate regulations will also be included in the record of breach of trust.
The new version of the "Plastic Restriction Order" will be implemented in three steps. In accordance with the principle of "banning and limiting a batch, replacing a batch of recycling, and regulating a batch", it will be divided into three periods: 2020, 2022, and 2025. section, clarifying the phased tasks and objectives for strengthening plastic pollution control.
By the end of 2020, the production and sale of disposable foam plastic tableware and disposable plastic cotton swabs will be prohibited; the production of daily chemical products containing plastic microbeads will be prohibited. By the end of 2022, the sale of daily chemical products containing plastic microbeads will be banned.
Regarding the use of plastic products, the opinions set forth regulations in four aspects: non-degradable plastic bags, disposable plastic tableware, hotels, hotel disposable plastic supplies, and express plastic packaging, and set clear time limits. surface.
For non-degradable plastic bags:
For express plastic packaging:
For disposable plastic tableware:
Currently, except for our most In addition to commonly used plastic bags, express delivery, agricultural film, and takeout are also major consumers of disposable plastics. In these three major application areas alone, nearly 5 million tons of plastic waste are generated nationwide every year. There is a huge space for degradable plastic replacement in the future. .
As far as the express delivery field is concerned, thanks to the popularity of online shopping, the business volume of my country’s express delivery companies has ranked first in the world for five consecutive years since 2014, and its business volume exceeds that of developed countries such as the United States, Japan, and Europe. The combined national economies account for approximately half of the world’s total.
Among them, in 2018, the national express delivery industry consumed 50.71 billion express waybills, approximately 5.3 billion woven bags, approximately 24.5 billion plastic bags, and approximately 43 billion meters of tape. According to this estimate, the national express delivery industry produced approximately 800,000 tons of plastic waste in 2018.
By 2019, the national express delivery business volume has reached 63 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 24%. Calculated based on the same proportion of growth rate, the national express delivery industry will produce approximately 990,000 tons of plastic waste in 2019.
At the 2016 Global Smart Logistics Summit, Cainiao Network announced that it would join 32 Chinese and global partners to launch the Cainiao Green Alliance - the "Green Movement Plan", promising to replace 50% of packaging materials and fillers by 2020. It is 100% biodegradable green packaging material.
Combined with the upgraded version of the "Plastic Restriction Order" for express plastic packaging, we will have a replacement demand for no less than 400,000 tons of degradable plastics by 2022, and by 2025 , the demand for degradable plastics in the express delivery field alone will exceed 1 million tons.
As far as the field of mulch film is concerned, mulch film is widely used in the field of agricultural planting. With the promotion and popularization of mulch film, the usage of mulch film has been increasing in various places in recent years, and the usage has been stable at 2.4 million tons for many years. above.
As far as take-out lunch boxes are concerned, my country's take-out orders reached 10.96 billion in 2018. According to a survey by the environmental organization "Natural University", each take-out meal consumes an average of 3.3 lunch boxes and produces approximately 160g of plastic. Based on this calculation, my country's food delivery industry consumed more than 1.75 million tons of disposable tableware plastic in 2018.
Then, based on 2018 statistical data, in the three major fields of express delivery, agricultural film, and takeout alone, the replacement space for degradable plastics is close to 5 million tons. If we calculate based on the average median of 20,000 yuan per ton, the corresponding market space can reach 100 billion yuan!
02
Domestic technological breakthroughs have been achieved
Leading companies will benefit deeply
Due to global “plastic restriction” and “plastic ban” laws In recent years, the global demand for degradable plastics has continued to grow steadily.
According to statistics from IHSMarkit, global demand for biodegradable plastics was 360,000 tons in 2018 and will grow to 550,000 tons in 2023, with an average annual compound growth rate of 8.85.
From the perspective of the geographical composition of the consumer market, because developed countries such as Europe and the United States have earlier formulated corresponding policies to promote the development of degradable plastics, the largest consumer market for degradable plastics is currently in Europe and the United States, with Western Europe accounting for Half of the global degradable plastic consumer market.
At the same time, Europe and the United States have also become the fastest growing regions in the degradable plastic industry, such as the United States, Italy, Germany and other countries.
Thanks to the implementation of its "plastic restriction" and "plastic ban" policies, companies such as Nature Works, Danimer Scientific, BASF, and Mater-Biopolymer in these regions have grown into world-renowned degradable plastics faucet.
At the beginning of this year, our country issued an upgraded version of the "Plastic Restriction Order", which comprehensively banned the import of waste plastics, banned or restricted the use of single-use plastic products in express delivery, takeout, etc., and proposed a clear timetable. It is expected that our country can The promotion and popularization of degradable plastics will accelerate. In the future, my country is expected to become the country with the fastest growth rate in the degradable plastics market.
From the perspective of composition, degradable plastic products are currently mainly divided into four categories: starch-based plastics, PLA (polylactic acid), PBS (including PBSA, PBAT, etc.), and PHAs. Among them, PLA (polylactic acid) is currently the most mature biodegradable plastic with the largest output and the most widely used industrialization.
Currently, the global PLA production capacity exceeds 500,000 tons/year, of which the American Nature Works company has an annual production capacity of 150,000 tons, accounting for approximately 30% of the world's polylactic acid production capacity. The production of polylactic acid is still in its infancy in my country.
Since the upstream raw materials for PBS, such as PTA and adipic acid, have abundant production capacity in China, PBAT among PBS polyesters is developing faster globally and has a larger application scale due to its cost and performance advantages.
PBAT has good thermal stability and excellent mechanical properties, and can be widely used in food packaging, cosmetic boxes, medicine boxes, tableware, disposable medical supplies, agricultural films and other fields.
In my country, the development of PBAT technology is relatively mature and easier to industrialize. At present, the Institute of Physics and Chemistry Technology of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, the Institute of Chemistry of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Tsinghua University, and Xinjiang Lanshan Tunhe Polyester Company have formed PBAT production process package and related patented technologies with independent intellectual property rights.
Currently, among A-share listed companies, Kingfa Technology, Ruifeng High-tech, Yifan Pharmaceuticals, Jinming Precision Machinery, etc. have relevant technical reserves in the field of degradable plastics, and some companies have successfully put into production and successfully launched To the market, we will become the first batch of beneficiaries of the implementation of my country’s upgraded version of the “Plastic Restriction Order” in the future.
Kingfa Technology: The company is the only fully biodegradable plastics manufacturer in Asia that fully masters the core technologies of polymerization, modification and end-use applications. The company ranks among the top five in the world in terms of sales of degradable plastics and ranks first in Asia.
The company has mastered the production capacity of a variety of petroleum-based polyester biodegradable plastics (PBSA, PBAT, etc.). The Zhuhai PBSA degradable plastic project has achieved industrial production in 2011, and the products have obtained Recognized by the European Union and continues to be exported to Europe and the United States.
In terms of production capacity, the company's current biodegradable plastics are mainly PBSA and PBAT, with a total production capacity of about 60,000 tons. Against the background of plastic bans in many places in Europe and the further implementation of domestic plastic restrictions, the company's degradable plastics business is expected to usher in new development.
Ruifeng High-tech: The company’s affiliated research center has not only mastered relevant technologies through independent research and development and technical cooperation, but has successfully passed the pilot test, and the performance of its PBAT biodegradable plastic products has also reached international standards. advanced level.
On the evening of March 16, the company announced that it planned to invest no more than 320 million yuan to build a PBAT biodegradable plastic project with an annual output of 60,000 tons. The construction period of the project is 15 months and is expected to be completed and put into production before the end of June 2021. After the project is put into production, it will help optimize the company's product structure and cultivate new growth points.
Qixiang Tengda: The company has an annual output of 150,000 tons of PBS production line, which is a third-generation fully biodegradable plastic material that can be used to make disposable products such as packaging materials, tableware, sanitary products, and mulch films. .
Yifan Pharmaceutical: As the global leader in calcium pantothenate, the company has a production capacity of 8,000 tons, accounting for 35% of the global market share. In recent years, the company has also accelerated its layout in the field of degradable biomaterials. Among them, its wholly-owned subsidiary Hangzhou Xinfu is building a degradable plastic production capacity of 20,000 tons (including PBAT and PBSA, and has put into production 10,000 tons), which accounts for only 10,000 tons of the company's total production capacity. The proportion of revenue is small.
Jinming Precision Machinery: The company is one of the brand representatives of my country’s professional thin film equipment going abroad. Its products are exported to more than 50 countries and regions including Japan, Israel, Russia, Central Europe, the Middle East and Southeast Asia.
The company has successfully developed degradable agricultural film production equipment and other products, breaking the long-term dependence on imports. With the arrival of the intensive construction period of domestic degradable plastic projects, the company serves as the upstream equipment provider for degradable plastics. Business can open up new development space.
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