The comparative advantage of China's manufacturing industry is obvious (although the performance in different industries is different, even very different), and it is in a dynamic transformation to a great extent. This comparative advantage is not only reflected in a large number of low-cost labor and other factors, but also in the advantages of the large-scale processing and assembly industry, which is constantly upgrading to a high degree of processing, and the huge domestic market scale and potential indispensable for industrial development. These comparative advantages have largely formed China's unique international competitive advantage, and have won and will continue to win a more favorable position in the international division of labor. If the development of China's manufacturing industry is mainly due to the opening-up and market-oriented reform, then after China's entry into the WTO, the comparative advantages of China's manufacturing industry will be fully and effectively brought into play in a more open and market-oriented environment, and greater benefits will be gained in the process of actively participating in economic globalization.
Of course, in the manufacturing field, the maturity, openness and comparative advantages of different industries are very different, and the impact of joining WTO on these industries is uneven. In the long run, there are two main factors that affect the international competitiveness of industries: first, relying on the comparative advantages of resource endowment and factor cost, it has long-term and basic characteristics, which determines the long-term trend and basic pattern of international division of labor, international trade and transnational investment; Second, the competitive advantage that depends on the competitive strategy and institutional conditions is obviously strategic and selective. China is in a period of drastic changes in economic system, industrialization process and supply-demand structure, and the factors affecting China's industrial competitiveness, especially its dynamic comparative advantage and competitive advantage, are very complicated and changeable. From the background of China's entry into WTO, the trend of industrial internationalization and globalization, degree of marketization, degree of opening to the outside world, industrial maturity, domestic demand potential and dynamic comparative advantage will have a more direct and obvious impact on industrial development prospects and competitive advantages. Therefore, based on these factors, we try to establish an evaluation method of China's industrial development prospect under the background of WTO entry, so as to comprehensively evaluate the short-term and long-term impact of WTO entry on various manufacturing sectors. Its main points include: first, to seek a unified evaluation method for industrial development prospects under the background of WTO, which is generally applicable to industrial departments and makes all industrial departments compare horizontally in a coordinate system; Second, organically combine short-term countermeasure research with long-term trend research, broaden the research horizon, and accurately grasp the long-term development direction of various industries after China's entry into WTO; Thirdly, through the evaluation of industrial development prospects under the background of WTO, the direction and basic ideas of government policy adjustment in the coming period are clarified. At present, the basic trend of the development prospect of China's manufacturing industry should be a high degree of processing, and the manufacturing industry should develop in harmony with other manufacturing departments and internal departments. China has entered the late stage of industrialization, which is characterized by the development of heavy equipment industry. At present, the competitive advantage of China's manufacturing industry is low, the innovation ability is not strong, science and technology are out of touch with economic development, the proportion of foreign capital is high, and the productivity has no advantage compared with foreign countries. In order to solve the current manufacturing problems, this paper analyzes the gap between China's manufacturing industry and developed countries and the deep-seated reasons for China's backwardness, and puts forward that we should integrate mechanism innovation, system innovation and technological innovation to create a good environment for the rapid development of China's manufacturing industry and manufacturing technology and enhance China's international competitiveness and status as soon as possible.
Manufacturing industry is the source of industrialization, the driving force of modernization and the pillar of national strength. Without strong manufacturing capacity, a country will never become an economic power. At present, China's industrialization process is in the middle stage of transition from low level to high level. According to the experience of developed countries, it will take at least ten years to fully realize industrialization. Manufacturing industry is divided into processing manufacturing and equipment manufacturing. Macroscopically, China's manufacturing industry has developed so rapidly that there is now a saying that "China has become the factory of the world". This statement seems to have two bases: first, the contribution of manufacturing industry to China's exports; The second is the development speed of manufacturing industry. China has completed the primary stage of industrialization, which is characterized by the rapid development of labor-intensive industries and light industry structure. At this stage, China developed the processing and manufacturing industry to the extreme. The hat of "world manufacturing factory" is not worthy of the name, but is confined to the field of consumer goods. With the industrial upgrading, we have inevitably developed into the "heavy chemical industry stage" characterized by the equipment manufacturing industry, which some people call the "post-industrial era". Equipment manufacturing refers to the production of means of production, characterized by capital-intensive and technology-intensive, including energy, machinery manufacturing, electronics, chemistry, metallurgy, building materials and other industries. According to China's general experience, every percentage point increase in GDP in the stage of light industry can help 3 million people find jobs, but in the stage of heavy chemical industry, it will drop to 700,000. In the stage of heavy chemical industry, it is inevitable to encounter various thorny social and economic problems. Based on the development of manufacturing industry at this stage, this paper tries to solve some problems existing in manufacturing industry and provide some suggestions for the future development of manufacturing industry. 1. Status of manufacturing industry in China
1. 1 actual productivity
At present, the overall scale of China's manufacturing industry is equivalent to that of Germany, so it can be said that it is a big manufacturing country. The popular saying is that China's labor force is cheap, its products have price advantages, and it is very competitive in the international market. However, the competition of manufacturing competitiveness between the two countries depends on production efficiency, that is, the labor cost consumed per unit product (or the same product and output value). The average wage in America is 47. China's 8 times, but to create the same manufacturing added value, the labor cost in the United States is only 1. Three times that of China. Compared with Japan and China, these two indicators are 29. 9 and 65,438+0. They are 2 respectively. This is the data of ten years ago, and now the labor cost in China has gone up a lot. In other words, our productivity is declining. At the same time, the low-level production capacity is seriously surplus, and more than 80% of the main industrial products in the country are underutilized or seriously insufficient, and a large number of production capacity is vacant; There is a serious shortage of high-level production capacity, and important equipment basically depends on imports, which also limits the improvement of productivity.
1.2 lack of innovation and core competitiveness.
The self-sufficiency rate of key technologies is low, the external dependence of technology reaches 50%, more than 60% of equipment needs to be imported, the contribution rate of science and technology to development only accounts for 30%, and invention patents only account for 1.8% of the world total. China's economic development is mainly supported by foreign key technologies and equipment. The conditions supporting the survival of Chinese enterprises are: first, relying on the advantages of low-cost labor, relying on low-price competition, and lacking the accumulation of funds and technology; Second, relying on the local market advantage supported by the rapid development of macro-economy, we will strengthen macro-economy and weaken enterprises. The great advantage of human capital conceals the embarrassment that China enterprises lack core technology. If this unfavorable situation is not changed, the adjustment and upgrading of industrial structure will face serious obstacles, and China's manufacturing industry may pay a huge price for it.
1.3 The organizational structure of enterprises is small and scattered, with low industrial concentration and poor economies of scale.
Manufacturing is the industry with the most significant scale benefit. However, due to the failure to establish a production system that meets the requirements of market economy and has a reasonable industrial concentration, the organizational structure of enterprises is very scattered. So far, China has not formed a group of large enterprises and enterprise groups that represent the advanced level of the industry, occupy a large market share and have international competitive advantages, nor has it formed a group of small and medium-sized enterprises with technical characteristics in specialization and cooperation.
1.4 Low-end products are over-expanded, and high value-added products rely on imports.
Enterprises blindly expand production for a long time, which leads to the overcapacity of China's manufacturing industry to produce products with low added value or low technology content. 87% of the 382 major industrial products are in oversupply, while high-tech industrial products still rely heavily on imports.
1.5 Low resource utilization and low economic efficiency.
Although the country has emphasized technological innovation in recent years, the contribution rate of technology to output is still very low. China's labor cost is 4 18% of that of the United States, while the per capita output value of American manufacturing industry in 2000 was $86,559, which was 18 17 times that of China. In addition, China's energy utilization rate is 32%, while that of developed countries is 42%, while industrial pollution emissions are 10 times that of developed countries. Moreover, the value-added rate of China's products is 30%, while that of the United States, Germany and Japan is 48%, 47% and 4 1% respectively. This shows that there is a problem of low resource utilization rate in the input-output process of China manufacturing industry.
1.6 lacks management ability and global marketing ability, and price war has become the main means of competition.
Many companies in our country still haven't changed their business methods according to international practices, which leads to a great discount on the competitiveness of enterprises, and price war has become the main means of competition, leading to disorderly price competition in manufacturing industry. At the same time, China enterprises are very lacking in global marketing experience, and mainly rely on foreign distributors or partners to promote China products in the international market.
1.7 Lack of world-class multinational companies.
In 2003, among the top enterprises in China 100, there were 57 manufacturing enterprises, 33 in the last 50, 24 in the top 50, and only 3 in the 10, including 2 in the energy industry and 0 in the automobile industry. From the distribution characteristics of former 10 industries, the energy industry, telecommunications industry and financial industry have developed rapidly, while the manufacturing industries such as electromechanical industry and chemical industry are relatively weak. Manufacturing multinational companies are huge, and the scale and strength of China enterprises are far from it. Even the first-ranked China Oil and Gas Company ranks only 8 1 on the list of the world's top 500 companies, and its operating income is only 2. 1% of that of ExxonMobil. The annual revenue of China FAW Group is only 7. 147% of that of General Motors.
1.8 institutional obstacles still exist. If the weak ability of scientific and technological innovation is the biggest bottleneck restricting the development of China's manufacturing industry, then the institutional disadvantages of "two skins" of science and technology, economy, science and technology, education and economy formed during the planned economy period are the biggest obstacles restricting China's independent technological innovation.
China's science and technology and education, science and technology and economy, education and economy have long been in a state of separation. The functions of science and technology and education in serving the economy are not strong, science and technology, education and economy are fragmented, it is difficult for industry, learning and research to interact, and there is no national macro-coordination mechanism. The integration and utilization of limited scientific and technological resources in the whole society and the coordinated and orderly operation of scientific and technological forces are not in place. China's science and technology system has its own unique tasks, objectives, systems, organizational mechanisms and evaluation systems, so it is not closely related to the education system and industry, and it is out of touch with the value chain of personnel training, knowledge transfer, achievement transformation, research and development, production, sales and service of the whole product. The closed management system of science and technology in some scientific research units leads to their separation from manufacturing enterprises, and they cannot carry out scientific research closely around the problems and needs in the production of enterprises, so the results are not easy to enter the market. However, the education system, which lacks affinity with scientific and technological circles and business circles, lacks engineering, scientific research training and production practice, and lacks innovative spirit and ability due to the defects of the education system. Especially in the national strategy, the development direction of science and technology is quite different from that of China's manufacturing industry. Scientific and technological innovation not only failed to promote the development of China's manufacturing industry, but also hindered the development of China's manufacturing industry, which violated the principle of the relationship between them. Solve the current manufacturing problems and realize the rapid development of manufacturing industry.
2. 1 Taking advantage of the spillover effect of foreign capital, the east and the west develop in parallel. With the rapid development of globalization, there is a new strategic trend in manufacturing transfer.
R&D links began to shift to developing countries, and this trend is constantly strengthening. Of course, the core R&D remains in the headquarters of multinational companies, and its regional headquarters or branches are mainly engaged in localized R&D. The transfer of R&D links of multinational companies in developed countries has accelerated their technology transfer and strengthened their technical control over their investment enterprises. Accordingly, the foreign investment of multinational companies is more in the form of sole proprietorship, and the growth of M&A investment is also obviously accelerated. Although foreign capital has set high barriers to technical barriers at this stage, spillover effect is still inevitable. Domestic-funded enterprises should constantly improve their technical level and innovation ability in order to better digest the advanced technology of absorbing foreign capital; In the future, the eastern region should pay more attention to the quality of foreign investment, encourage foreign-funded enterprises to set up R&D centers in China and introduce the most advanced technology to China. In addition, it is also very important to take various measures to encourage foreign-funded enterprises to cooperate with domestic enterprises, universities and various scientific research institutions in research and development. For the western region, due to the low level of productivity, it is still unable to undertake the spillover effect of foreign capital. When introducing foreign capital, we should combine the local economic development level and introduce it selectively, instead of blindly pursuing a higher technical level. At present, the main task of the western region is to increase the capital investment in scientific research and development, improve the technical level and human capital level of enterprises, and actively create conditions to enable local enterprises to obtain the spillover effect of foreign capital. At the same time, the western region should give full play to the advantages of abundant labor force, vigorously develop processing and manufacturing industries, create a better investment environment, reduce logistics and trade costs, and actively undertake industrial transfer in the eastern region. If we don't do this, the gap between the east and the west will continue to widen.
2.2 From the height of national strategy, it is clear about the important position of manufacturing industry. First of all, the whole society should form a * * understanding: although China is currently in the process of social transformation, the basic national conditions of China's unfinished industrialization tasks have not changed; The core position of manufacturing industry in the industrial system has not changed, and its material base position in the sustainable development of national economy and society has not changed. Therefore, we can't be divorced from the national conditions, we can't replace industrial economic development with knowledge-based economic development, and we can replace industrialization with informationization. We can only coordinate the development of industrial economy with the development of knowledge economy, and organically combine industrialization with informatization. Second, we should fully understand the irreplaceable key position and role of manufacturing industry and manufacturing technology in the history of human social development, and the deep relationship between manufacturing industry and industrialization, informationization and modernization in China from a brand-new perspective of combining history with reality and science with humanities. We should also clearly see that the stage of industrialization cannot be bypassed in the process of human civilization. Even in today's knowledge-based economy, the economic carrier of developed countries is still manufacturing, and the leading industry of China's economy is also manufacturing. Third, we should stand at the height of a sovereign country's security and development strategy and firmly establish the view that "the rise and fall of the manufacturing industry determines the rise and fall of the country." We should constantly compare and study the manufacturing technical strength at home and abroad, so as to know ourselves and ourselves. We should learn from the painful lessons that countries such as Britain and the United States neglected the manufacturing industry in history, and learn from the successful experience that industrialized countries such as the United States, Japan, Germany and South Korea have become world economic powers because they attach great importance to the development of manufacturing industry. We should set our goals and firmly grasp the correct direction of China's economic development. 2.3 Establish an integrated operation mechanism of science, technology, education and economy. First of all, the state should establish and improve the macro-coordination mechanism of science and technology, education and economy, and strengthen the three interfaces of science and technology and education and science and technology and economy to make them an organic whole.
National and local governments should set up technical innovation coordination institutions from top to bottom, strengthen the guidance and regulation of scientific and technological innovation activities of enterprises, research institutes and universities, and enable universities to establish technological innovation partnerships with enterprises and research institutes. To put science and technology education in an extremely important position, it is necessary to formulate the plan of combining science and technology with education at the national level, introduce China's scientific education standards and technical education standards as soon as possible, and implement the strategy of "rejuvenating the country through science and education" more effectively. Secondly, it is necessary to deepen the reform of science, technology and education system, deepen the reform of government administrative management system, formulate policies on science, technology and education that are consistent, coordinated and coherent with economic reform, and create a good institutional and policy environment for the combination of science, technology, education and economy. Thirdly, enterprises, universities, scientific research institutes and scientific and technological intermediaries should boldly explore new modes and mechanisms of cooperation in Industry-University-Research, promote the combination of education and scientific research and development between universities and scientific research institutes, promote the cooperation between universities and enterprises in personnel training and scientific and technological innovation, accelerate the transformation of scientific and technological achievements into real productive forces, and promote the complementary and interactive development of partners. Finally, China's higher engineering education should take the lead in building a bridge between the training objectives of colleges and universities and the talent demand of enterprises, directly face the main battlefield of engineering practice, social and economic construction, cultivate a large number of engineering and technical talents, cultivate enterprise management talents who know both technology and management, and closely link talent training with solving enterprise technology and management problems.
Put them together. Make engineering education adapt to the needs of technological innovation and management innovation of modern enterprises as soon as possible.
2.4 Actively cultivate large enterprises, improve concentration and scale efficiency.
Manufacturing is an industry with remarkable economies of scale. At present, the scale of manufacturing enterprises in China is generally small, which is one of the important reasons for the high cost and lack of price competitiveness of manufacturing products in China. Generally speaking, there are two ways to set up large companies and enterprises: one is to set up large enterprises by snowballing capital accumulation, but this way of setting up is a long process, which cannot alleviate the realistic international competitive pressure faced by China's manufacturing industry in a short time. The second is through acquisition, merger and reorganization. This is the main way to set up large enterprises, and it should be said that this is also the main way to set up large enterprises in China in the future. The focus of government work should be on the formulation of property rights reform policies of state-owned enterprises and the construction and improvement of capital market, so as to create conditions for the establishment of market merger mechanism.
2.5 urge manufacturing enterprises to become the main body of technological innovation as soon as possible.
First, starting with the reform of property right relationship and property right structure, we should carry out deep-seated reform of state-owned enterprises and carry out institutional innovation closely around the core of economic system, so as to make the boundary of property right clearer and the management of property right more standardized, and truly make substantial progress in the operation mechanism of state-owned enterprises and the reform of China's economic system. So as to ensure that the enterprise becomes a completely market-oriented economic entity with full freedom and autonomy, so that it can stand on the global market and exercise its survival and self-development ability in the fierce market competition. Second, we should establish the survival of the fittest and exit mechanism in the market economy, including the death system such as enterprise bankruptcy. Market economy is mainly manifested in the exit mechanism of enterprise competition. Only when the garbage after competition is removed, innovation will not be hindered, and it will be beneficial to the establishment of R&D mechanism and technological innovation mechanism and the promotion of core competitiveness of enterprises. At the same time, the whole society should also have a sound risk transfer mechanism to help those enterprises that are brave in taking risks and innovation to relieve their worries. Third, the state should guide enterprises to change from the traditional competitive development mode of reducing costs to the competitive development mode of focusing on market and technological innovation. We should learn from foreign successful theories and experiences, apply industrial engineering management techniques and methods to achieve system efficiency and benefit goals, implement enterprise reengineering and knowledge management, combine enterprise system construction with management level improvement, establish scientific organizational structure and business process, and take management innovation as a powerful lever to incite enterprise technological innovation. Fourth, the market-oriented selection and appointment of directors, managers and chief executives of state-owned enterprises should be implemented to keep pace with the market-oriented operation mechanism of state-owned enterprises. First, it is necessary to remove the direct personnel control link between the government and enterprises. As the soul and core of modern enterprises, the selection and appointment of enterprise managers can no longer be an administrative order of the government. Second, it is necessary to implement an open, fair and just recruitment system, and replace the administrative and official appointment and removal mechanisms with competitive and market-oriented recruitment mechanisms. Third, it is necessary to cultivate a fully competitive, free and orderly flow of enterprise management talent market and ensure that state-owned enterprises can absorb professional management talents with entrepreneurial spirit, innovative consciousness and ability to control the market economy from the market. Fifth, strengthen the construction of enterprise technology center and strengthen enterprise research and development mechanism. First of all, the state should focus on supporting a number of large enterprise groups to establish market-oriented technology centers and actively promote technological research and innovation of small and medium-sized enterprises. It is necessary to guide enterprises to adjust their technological development ideas on the basis of tracking and imitating, and combine independent development and innovation with the introduction, digestion, absorption and improvement of foreign advanced technologies. Second, business leaders should improve their understanding of technology centers, attach great importance to R&D, constantly strengthen the strength of R&D, adopt diversified financing methods, and increase investment in R&D funds. It is necessary to put forward medium-and long-term development plans and formulate specific project implementation plans, so that the technological innovation of enterprises can be truly implemented. Fundamentally change the situation that China's scientific and technological research and development and achievements transformation mainly rely on state investment. The third is to seek the management and operation mechanism of enterprise technology center suitable for the national conditions. It is necessary to build an incentive mechanism to encourage scientific and technological personnel to research and develop new technologies and products, and form independent intellectual property rights, such as implementing the reward system for patentees and service inventors; Establish an original scientific and technological innovation award fund; Take intellectual property as a factor of production and participate in income distribution. This will create conditions for researchers to realize their own value and maximize their innovation potential.
Generally speaking, the integration of mechanism innovation, system innovation and technology innovation is the most important aspect of the rapid and high-quality development of China's manufacturing industry. The manufacturing market in the world is vast. As a big manufacturing country, China must seize the opportunity, find the gap between itself and developed countries, improve it according to its own national conditions, and create a good environment for the rapid development of China's manufacturing industry and manufacturing technology, so as to enhance China's international competitiveness and status as soon as possible. I believe that in the near future, China will become a real manufacturing power in the world.