Wengu BT finance
As the Spring Festival approaches, nucleic acid has proved to be an essential passport for returning home.
According to the forecast of the Ministry of Transport, Spring Festival travel rush has sent about 654.38+07 billion passengers this year, with an average of about 40 million passengers per day. Based on the official guidance price of 80 yuan/time and re-examination every seven days, the market income of nucleic acid detection is at least 654.38+03.6 billion yuan for only one Spring Festival travel rush upsurge.
With the market increment of 1000 billion, nucleic acid detection has jumped to the forefront, and many people have not discovered that this business can be too profitable.
First, a set of data, intuitively feel how profitable nucleic acid testing is?
You are not mistaken, the net profit has skyrocketed dozens or even hundreds of times!
According to incomplete statistics, at present, 3 1 listed companies in the concept sector of nucleic acid detection have announced their performance forecasts for 2020, of which 29 are growth.
Sheng Xiang Bio, a manufacturer of nucleic acid detection reagents, is the company with the highest increase in this field. It was only in August 2020 that it landed on the Science and Technology Innovation Board, which was known as the "first anti-epidemic stock". In 2020, the net profit will increase by 2.52 billion to 2.77 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 70 times!
This also makes founder Dai Lizhong worth more than 65.438+05 billion yuan, ranking among Forbes billionaires.
Look at Daan Gene, another leading nucleic acid detection reagent company. In 20 19, Daan gene still faced great pressure to survive, and its annual net profit dropped to 92 million yuan. However, relying on the nucleic acid detection business, the net profit in the first quarter of 2020 was 654.38+86 million yuan, and the net profit for the whole year in 2020 is expected to reach 2-22 billion yuan, almost more than four times the sum of the previous five years!
The performance of companies providing nucleic acid testing services is also very bright.
Dean Diagnostics, a giant medical diagnosis institution, predicts a profit of 71.200 million-81.600 million yuan in 2020, a year-on-year increase of1.05%-1.35%; Jinyu Medical, the largest third-party medical testing institution, tested more than 30 million people in 2020, and it is estimated that the profit in 2020 will be14-15.6 billion yuan.
Employees of a third-party testing organization told the media that their company only passed the qualification examination in May last year, and nucleic acid testing has become the highest contribution source of income. The year-end bonus has been paid in advance, and the salary doubled in June this year from 5438+ 10.
It's not over yet. In addition to the profit growth rate, the nucleic acid detection business also has an amazing figure-gross profit margin.
As early as March 2020, the state encouraged third-party testing institutions to carry out nucleic acid testing and implemented a two-track price system with public hospitals. In other words, third-party testing institutions have independent pricing power.
At that time, the market price of third-party testing institutions was mostly 200-400 yuan/person. But what about the actual cost? According to the procurement information released by the government, the average price of extraction reagents is about 10 yuan, and the average price of detection reagents is about 15 yuan.
In this way, the profit of nucleic acid detection reagents can be as high as 80% or more! In fact, it is indeed true. Daan Gene disclosed in the semi-annual financial report in 2020 that the gross profit margin of its nucleic acid detection kit products was 85.39%.
Compared with 60% gross profit margin of Nongfu Spring, it is indeed more profitable than selling water!
Nucleic acid testing service institutions also need to increase the cost of manpower, equipment and transportation. The gross profit margin is relatively low, but it can also reach about 50%, which is also considerable.
Nowadays, nucleic acid detection has become an urgent demand. The state requires all county-level hospitals to have the ability of nucleic acid sampling and testing, which not only drives the further growth of third-party testing institutions, but also greatly increases the sales of related experimental equipment.
It is reported that during the five years from 20 15 to 20 19, the sales volume of PCR detectors for biological related instruments in Sheng Xiang was less than 1000. As a result, in 2020 alone, this number rose to more than 6,000. It is reported that the orders of some instrument manufacturers have been placed in the second year.
Interestingly, the nucleic acid detection industry has also spawned many niche businesses.
Someone started to act as an agent for WeChat business, posting advertisements of third-party testing institutions on social platforms such as friends circle, and each person could get a commission of 5- 10 yuan. According to media reports, some WeChat services can introduce 100 customers a day and earn about 1000 yuan a day.
But some people use their brains and choose to sell fake nucleic acid test reports. Recently, an absurd news, the owner of a copy shop in Shanxi Province issued a false nucleic acid test report of 1 1 by modifying his name and ID card, and earned 200 yuan. As a result, he was detained in administrative detention for 15 days and fined 1000 yuan.
Not everyone can fly above the tuyere. And the dividend period of this outlet may not last long.
Unlike masks, nucleic acid testing is a threshold business.
The threshold is not for testing reagents, but for approval. According to industry insiders, the detection reagents related to pathogenic pathogens belong to the third category of in vitro diagnostic reagents, which is the highest level of inspection in medical devices. In general, it takes 3-5 years or even longer for nucleic acid detection reagents to be developed, applied clinically and certified.
Since the outbreak of COVID-19, National Medical Products Administration has quickly started the emergency examination and approval procedures for medical devices, speeding up the examination and approval and expanding the supply. Some powerful leading enterprises seized this opportunity, got on the bus early and seized the market.
But problems also follow. With the lowering of approval threshold and the entry of a large number of enterprises, there are signs that supply exceeds demand in the market. It is worth mentioning that nucleic acid detection reagents are not To C products, but To B/To G, which depends on the centralized procurement of medical institutions.
First of all, the bid-winning enterprises with centralized procurement are often leading enterprises with strong production capacity and high technology, which is undoubtedly bad news for small enterprises that want to share a share in the middle of the track change.
According to public information, as of the end of 65438+February, there were as many as 24 nucleic acid detection reagent products approved by the Food and Drug Administration. Since April 2020, all provinces in China have collected 16 reagents, and only 19 of these 24 enterprises were shortlisted. Among them, all Daan genes won the bid, while Antu Bio, Dongfang Gene and Yousida all won the bid only 1 time.
More importantly, centralized procurement is the direct cause of reducing profit margins.
It can be seen that the official guidance pricing of all provinces and cities is decreasing step by step. Take Beijing as an example, it has dropped from the earliest 180 yuan to 120 yuan, and now it has dropped to 80 yuan, and it can also be reimbursed by social security.
Behind it is the declining purchase price. Hubei Province is the first province in COVID-19 to start centralized procurement of testing packages, and the final bid price is 8 1% lower than that before centralized procurement. 65438 129 October, Jilin Provincial Public Resource Trading Center explicitly required that the price of nucleic acid detection kit should not be higher than12 yuan/person in principle; The price of virus antibody detection kit is not higher than 5.8 yuan per person in principle.
Take Zhijiang Bio, one of the first enterprises to obtain the registration certificate of nucleic acid detection kit, as an example. In the first quarter of 2020, the gross profit margin of this suite was 87.96%. After centralized collection, the gross profit margin of the winning reagent dropped to about 50%, and the price plummeted from 64. 13 yuan/person to 65.438+05 yuan/person, with a decrease of 76.6 1%.
The price of Daan gene is even lower. In the latest solicitation in Zhejiang Province, the bid price has been reduced to 10 yuan. According to the performance forecast of Sheng Xiang Bio in 2020, the lowest price of nucleic acid detection reagent is only 8.88 yuan/person, which is about to bottom out.
Government orders are big orders, and enterprises have basically pushed the price to the extreme in order to win the bid.
When an industry starts a price war, it is basically far from profit.
In addition, the burden of nucleic acid detection server enterprises is heavier. In order to expand the market scale, it is necessary to continuously expand the third-party laboratory, which is an asset-oriented business. The cost of the third-party laboratory does not include the purchase of kits, but also includes related instruments, manpower, protection costs and so on.
The market price of PCR instruments is about 50,000 yuan/set, which is better than 100000, but the detection ability is limited, and it may only be about1000 samples per day. The labor cost is high, and the nucleic acid extraction is basically done manually. In order to keep up with the demand, many enterprises temporarily recruit a large number of testing personnel with high salaries. In addition, it costs a sum of money to equip with protective clothing, goggles, N95 masks, latex gloves and sample storage tubes. Other companies have set up automatic reservation backstage, and data management and risk monitoring are invisible expenses.
Once these are invested, they are all costly and may even lose money. Therefore, enterprises should also calculate their accounts and not blindly expand their production capacity, otherwise the tide will recede and the naked swimmer will be himself.
It is reported that the highest daily test volume of the dean's diagnosis is 600,000 cases, while that of Jinyu Medicine is only 350,000 cases.
It can be clearly seen from the financial report of Jinyu Medical that although the income and profit are accelerating, the accounts receivable are also increasing, with an increase of 53.83% in the first half of 2020, accounting for 45.71%of the company's total assets; Cash withdrawal is slower, the payment period is extended from 98 days to 2 12 days, the cash flow is reduced from 95.8 1% in 20 19 to 69.76%, and the net cash ratio is reduced from 164.43% to 42.99%.
Southwest Securities predicts that in 20021year, BGI medical testing revenue will shrink by 60.5% year-on-year. Among them, the sales volume of nucleic acid detection reagents will be reduced from 75 million to 20 million.
What is more alarming is that those companies with a high proportion of nucleic acid detection performance can maintain the current high valuation once their business shrinks sharply.
At present, nucleic acid detection reagents are still in the dividend stage of "small profits but quick turnover". However, with the global epidemic control and the progress of vaccination and testing technology in COVID-19, supply and demand will become more rational.
Many third-party testing institutions have launched some value-added services in order to maintain their own profits. For example, relying on "timeliness" and "high efficiency" to attract business, we launched a two-hour door-to-door delivery and two-hour results.
However, these are not long-term solutions. Maybe we can look overseas.
According to customs statistics, in 2020, China exported 654.38+800 million test kits to COVID-19. By the end of 2026, 5438+0.1.29,547 companies had obtained the EU standard certification of COVID-19 test suite.
At present, nucleic acid detection boxes of many listed companies such as BGI, mike biological, Fosun Pharma, Antu Pharmaceutical and Sheng Xiang Bio have passed FDA certification.
Under the situation that the epidemic situation in Europe and America continues to deteriorate, enterprises with export qualifications undoubtedly have another way to make money, and their profits are also high.
It is reported that China's current single-day detection capacity can reach 654.38+billion person-times, while the United States also exceeded 654.38+billion person-times in September last year, and the market demand is huge.
Compared with the low price charged by our government, the market price of the kit in the United States can be as high as 2000 dollars (about RMB), and the production and export price in China is about RMB in 40 yuan, which is also profiteering!
According to foreign media reports, a woman in the United States was told to pay $27 18 (about RMB18,000 yuan) after completing nucleic acid testing at a free testing station, of which $2 10 (about RMB 1359 yuan) was the cost of nucleic acid testing, and the remaining $2,508 was the laboratory service fee.
American insurance companies do not pay for laboratory services. For some enterprises with laboratories overseas, this is undoubtedly a profitable business.
According to media reports, some companies are optimistic that the sales of kits exported to Europe, America, Japan and South Korea in 2020 will bring nearly one-third of their own net profit in 20 19.
Wuxi PharmaTech pointed out in the financial report that with the rapid growth of overseas customer orders and the continuous improvement of the company's capacity utilization rate and operating efficiency, the company's overall operating income achieved strong growth in the second half of 2020, with a year-on-year increase of more than 30%. Daan Gene also said on the interactive platform that the export sales of nucleic acid detection reagents currently account for about 20%.
According to insiders, COVID-19 has brought an opportunity for the outbreak of nucleic acid detection industry, but as the epidemic situation gradually approaches the new normal, nucleic acid detection will not always be the most profitable sector for these leading enterprises.
In fact, judging from the commercial characteristics of ICL (third-party medical examination and pathological diagnosis business) where nucleic acid testing is located, it is destined to be a long-term business.
ICL is a labor-intensive industry with long supply chain, many links involved and high cost. Leading enterprises will survive better, because they have relatively stable operations and economies of scale and can continue to make money. However, due to the low technical threshold, it is difficult to have a monopoly oligarchy.
From the perspective of market development, according to the forecast of the National Health and Family Planning Commission, the industry of ICL (third-party medical examination and pathological diagnosis business) will maintain a high-speed growth of 30% in the next few years, and it will exceed 25 billion yuan in 2020 and 30 billion yuan in 20021year.
Simply put, there is a market and money to make, but don't expect huge profits every day. The way out for nucleic acid testing is tightening. Are you sure you want to get on the bus?
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