Introduction: In my long career, I have absorbed all kinds of extremely simple basic concepts, which are often helpful to solve practical problems. I will introduce you to five such concepts, and then I will introduce you to a typical case. This problem is how to turn the $2 million in hand into $2 trillion. I will try to solve this problem through several useful basic concepts. Then, it expounds the important educational enlightenment infiltrated in it. It ends in this way because my original intention is to promote education, and today's game is also to explore a better way of thinking.
the first point is that in order to simplify the problem, the most obvious major decisions should be made first. The second point of view is to follow Galileo's conclusion that the real world of science can only be expressed by mathematics, which is like the language of God. His view is equally applicable to the tumultuous earthly life. When you learn a lot, not being able to use math freely is like a lame person taking part in a track and field competition. The third point of view is that when dealing with problems, we should not only think deeply, but also think reversely. As I said before, the farmer wants to know where he will die, so that he can avoid it. Many problems can't be solved by positive thinking, which is why Karl Jacoby, an algebra scientist, talks about "thinking in reverse, always thinking in reverse". Pythagoras school also proved that the root number 2 is irrational through reverse thinking. The fourth view is that the best and most practical wisdom is the most basic academic wisdom, but there is a very important premise: we must think from the perspective of multiple disciplines. In life, we should always use all the concepts that are easy to understand in the basic subjects of freshmen. If we can use them freely, we can put forward various methods to solve the problems. Some academic institutions or bureaucratic enterprises have very narrow views. They are divided into specific disciplines or sub-disciplines, and areas beyond their own scope are regarded as restricted areas. When using the thinking of expanding disciplines, you must follow Ben Franklin's teaching in Poor Richard: "If you want to finish it, start doing it. Otherwise give up. " If you are completely familiar with other people's thoughts, once you encounter something you are not familiar with, you can only spend money to get expert advice, which is very harmful, not only because it will lead you to a complicated way, but also because a character in Bernard Shaw's pen said, "The so-called profession is just a business of deceiving laymen." In fact, he also said something that Bernard Shaw was worried about. Usually, it is not because the professional consultant with narrow knowledge intentionally neglects his duty, but because of his subconscious prejudice. Because his financial motives are different from yours, his cognition is bound to be affected. Therefore, as a proverb goes, "For a man with a hammer, all the problems in his eyes are like nails." This mental defect will also test him. The fifth point of view is that the truly significant and outstanding achievements are usually in the combination of various factors. For example, pulmonary tuberculosis can be effectively suppressed because of taking at least three different drugs regularly for a long time, and other lollapalooza effect, such as airplane driving, follow the same pattern.
Now I ask you a practical question:
It's Atlanta in 1884, and you, like 2 others, have been brought before an eccentric rich man named Gloz. You have something in common with him: first of all, you will often apply the above five effective viewpoints to solve problems, and you will also understand the basic ideas of all courses in the university (even more so in 1996). However, all the examples of inventions and basic ideas are limited to before 1884, and you and Glacz know nothing about what happened after 1884.
Glacz invested US$ 2 million, half of which was used to set up a charitable foundation in Glacz to invest in a non-alcoholic beverage manufacturer. Glacz hopes to give this beverage a charming name-Coca-Cola.
if you can convince Glacz, your business plan will make his fund reach $2 trillion in 15 years-that is, by 234, after excluding the large amount of dividends paid every year, the value of the new enterprise will reach $2 trillion, and the other half of Glacz's assets will be transferred to your name. If you have 15 minutes to promote yourself. What are you going to say?
My countermeasure is to use only the above effective viewpoints and the knowledge that smart junior students can master when promoting Glacz.
Glacz, in order to simplify the problem, we made a simple and wise decision:
First of all, you can never create this $2 trillion by selling ordinary drinks, so we will make your drinks named after Coca-Cola a strong and legal brand. Second, we will start from Atlanta, then open the markets in other parts of the United States, and then we will successfully and quickly promote new drinks to the whole world. We need to develop a product with global appeal, because it uses effective basic elements, which must be found in basic academic courses.
Let's use mathematical principles to illustrate our specific goals:
By reasonable speculation, by 234, there will be about 8 billion beverage consumers in the world. By then, consumers will be richer than those in 1884. Most of each consumer's body is made up of water, and they must drink about 64 ounces every day, which is the amount of eight 8-ounce packages. Therefore, if our new drinks and other similar drinks improve the taste in the new market, so that the global water consumption increases by 25%, we can occupy half of the global new market. In 234, we can sell 2.92 billion 8-ounce products, and if each can make a net profit of 4 cents, we can make a profit of 117 billion dollars. With this gratifying growth rate, the goal of $2 trillion will be within reach.
the key question is whether we can achieve the goal of 4 cents per share of net profit in 234. The answer is yes, provided that you can create drinks that are popular all over the world. 15 years is a long time. Just like the Greek drachma (currency unit, abbreviated as GD), the dollar will definitely depreciate. On average, the actual purchasing power of global beverage consumers will increase, and the demand for drinking water will increase greatly due to the influence of low prices to promote consumer experience. In addition, due to the development of science and technology, the production cost will decrease in terms of Constant purchasing power. The above four conditions are favorable for the profit target of 4 cents per bottle.
think backwards. according to the situation in 1884, the net profit of each product was 1/4 of 4 cents or 7/1 of 1 cent. If our new product can really blow a whirlwind around the world, the profit target is easy to achieve.
Therefore, we decided to solve how to enhance the attractiveness of products on a global scale:
First of all, in 15 years, we created a new beverage market, and a quarter of the world's water consumption came from this market. Second, we must occupy half of the new market, and the sum of our competitors will occupy the other half, which will lead to the "ensemble effect".
at the same time, we must use all the advantages to solve the problem, that is, the powerful combination of various factors will produce the desired results. Fortunately, as long as we don't doze off in the freshman class, we will soon find a solution to these complicated problems.
after further simplifying the problem, we come to the conclusion that the best and simplest decision is to rely on a strong brand, which naturally allows us to understand the essence of the enterprise from the basic academic concepts. In essence, enterprises must be able to create and maintain a conditioned reflex, taking the trademark and appearance of "Coca-Cola" as a stimulus, and buying and drinking our products will produce the reaction we hope.
how to create and maintain conditioned reflex? Psychology textbooks provide two answers:
(1) operant conditioning;
(2) Classical conditioned reflex is also called Pavlov conditioned reflex for a few years, a great scientist in the former Soviet Union.
since we expect to achieve the result of ensemble, we must combine these two techniques of conditioned reflex-to establish stimulating conditions that can produce these two effects.
Operational conditioning is not difficult to solve. We must: (1) let customers get the highest return; (2) After the reaction we expect, if competitors also use operant conditioning, we should minimize the behavior it brings to our customers.
In order to establish the reward conditions in operant conditioned reflex, we found that several points are very practical:
(1) calories and other values in food; (2) Taste, texture and fragrance as consumption stimuli are based on neural network pre-programming theory in Darwin's natural selection theory; (3) irritants, such as sugar and caffeine; (4) The cooling effect of people in the case of overheating and the warming effect in the case of supercooling.
in order to achieve the effect of ensemble, incentives should be provided in all the above conditions.
First of all, we quickly decided to produce a cold drink. Under the condition of overheating, the heat resistance effect of the cold drink will be more obvious. In addition, too much heat will consume more liquid, and vice versa.
We also made a quick decision to add syrup and caffeine to our drinks. After all, tea, coffee and lemonade have become very popular.
one more thing, we must make up our minds to keep trying and successfully develop a special taste after repeated failures, so that customers can get the greatest pleasure after drinking mixed sugar water with caffeine. In order to prevent competitors from using the principle of operant conditioned reflex to offset the favorable reflex effect we have actively created, there is a countermeasure: we should firmly establish a view to make drinks spread all over the world in the shortest time, so that people can drink our products anytime and anywhere. After all, if a competitive product has not been tried, it will not be able to generate incentives in difficult choices. Every couple understands this truth.
Next, Pavlov's conditioned reflex principle is used, which uses the psychological effect produced by the simple "connection" between accidents. Just ringing the bell without presenting food, the dog Pavlov used to do the experiment will also secrete saliva; People are eager to have drinks in the hands of advertising models, even if they can't have such a beautiful woman. So, Glacz, we use Pavlov's conditioned reflex to create an impression of dignity and elegance, and let consumers naturally associate drinks and promotions with what they love or admire.
Expanding Pavlov's conditioned reflex will cost a lot of money, especially for advertising. Although the speed of expenses may be much faster than expected, when the money is spent on the cutting edge. When we are making great strides in the new market, our competitors are spending a lot of money to launch advertisements, creating the advantages of Pavlov's conditioned reflex. At that time, we will inevitably encounter obvious scale disadvantages. Combining this result with the effects of scale advantages, we can firmly hold at least half of the new market. If the distribution of consumers is loose, scale will bring cost advantage to our distribution.
in addition, according to Pavlov's effect of connecting two things, we will carefully choose the taste, texture and color for the new beverage. In order to create classic conditioned reflex, we choose an exotic and elegant name "Coca-Cola" for the product, instead of a popular name-"Glacz syrup and caffeine mixed drink". In addition, the Pavlov effect should be used to make drinks look like wine instead of soda. If the beverage itself is clear, we add artificial pigment and press carbon dioxide into drinking water, which is the product with the characteristics of champagne and the appearance of expensive beverage, but the difference is that its taste has been improved, making it more difficult for competitors to imitate. Because we try our best to combine the taste with the high-end psychological effect, the taste of the beverage should be different from the traditional taste, which will raise the threshold for competitors and will not let the products that happen to be similar in the market enjoy the benefits.
what else can you find from the psychology textbook that is helpful for establishing a new enterprise? Humans also have a "Monkey see, monkey do" nature, which is often called "social proof" in psychology. Under the influence of social recognition, imitating other people's consumption behavior can not only encourage customers to try our drinks one after another, but also let consumers experience the rewards of drinking. When designing advertisements or promotions, try to further expand profits; Social recognition should be considered when promoting current and future consumption. Compared with other similar products, the improvement of sales ability comes from the success of sales of each bottle of products.
Glacz, thus, by combining (1) Pavlov's conditioned reflex; (2) the powerful effect of social recognition, and (3) energy drinks with wonderful taste, refreshing and refreshing, form operational conditioned reflex. Due to the comprehensive effect of various factors, product sales will be the best in a long time, which is tantamount to the chemical self-catalytic reaction, that is, the advantageous effect of multi-factor synthesis we expect.
The logistics work of the enterprise and the strategy of branch school are very simple, and we can sell our drinks through two channels:
(1) selling them as syrup to cold drink selling departments or restaurants; (2) It is sold as a complete bottled carbonated beverage. In order to achieve the effect of ensemble, we can do both in two ways.
in order to achieve the strongest effect of Pavlov effect and social recognition, we will spend a lot of money on advertising and promotion, and more than 4% of the price of syrup will be used for advertising.
The products of several syrup factories can be sold all over the world. In order to reduce unnecessary shipping troubles, we need to distribute to a large number of bottling factories all over the world. If "the first-sale price" can be established (just like the electric light bulb invented by GE), both our raw slurry and the complete bottled products can maximize the profit. The best way to firmly grasp the control of profits is to make each independent bottler become a subcontractor instead of a buyer of syrup, and certainly not a permanent franchisee of syrup, allowing it to fix the price of syrup at the initial level.
in order to prevent outsiders from obtaining valuable patent rights for formula, we will strictly guard against the secret recipe from leaking out. In order to create the Pavlov effect, we will also make a lot of hype in the preservation of secret recipes. With the development of food engineering, others will eventually copy our tastes with high accuracy, and then we will be far ahead. Because there are strong brands and perfect "readily available" global distribution points, the reproduction of taste will not be an obstacle to our progress. The food industry will be used by us, such as the invention of refrigeration technology, faster transportation, and the technology of adding sugar flavor to drinks without adding sugar calories for dieters. In addition, related beverage opportunities will follow, and we must firmly grasp them.
Finally, let's use jacoby's reverse thinking to check the enterprise development plan.
what should be done to avoid unpleasant things? There are four clear answers.