How many decades (centuries) can people live at most?

Up to 13 years old The oldest person in the world is found in India

According to the residents of the village, Daifuji Devi, an elderly woman living in Brown Village, Himachal Pradesh, northern India, is at least 13 years old. If her age can be confirmed, she will become the oldest person in the world, 14 years older than the known oldest woman in China.

Dienis Kumar, a lawyer in Chandigarh, recently told the media that although Dewei has no birth certificate, according to her family history, she is at least 13 years old. He said that Devi gave birth to his eldest daughter at the age of 25, got married at the age of 2, and gave birth to his son Keshav Ram at the age of 28, and now his son is 8 years old.

Kumar said that he started to investigate Devi's family history three months ago, and there are two very important evidences to prove her age. First of all, one of her grandchildren is 8 years old. Second, one of her living sons is 12 years old.

Devi is still in good health, and she can still collect firewood on the mountain by herself. She said that she drinks two cups of milk and eats a piece of millet bread every day, and she has only been to the hospital twice in her life. (Xinhua News Agency)

No one can live forever. Even if we find the secret of immortality, we will die because of infectious diseases, murders and accidents. Among people of different ages, the mortality rate of teenagers is the lowest. In developed countries, this figure is .5% per year. This means that even if we can stay young forever, .5% people will die every year for various reasons, only 95% people will live to be 1 years old, and 5% people will live to be 1 years old.

On the other hand, aging is undoubtedly the most important factor leading to our death, which makes none of us live to be 1 years old, and only a few very lucky people can live to be 1 years old. "When the wine song, life geometry? It's like morning dew. It's hard to go to Japan! " Cao Cao's eternal swan song can be transformed into an eternal question: how old can people live? This question can be divided into three parts: what is the longest life span of human beings? What is the average life expectancy of human beings? What is the life expectancy of everyone?

Although some people try to predict the longest life span of human beings, these predictions are untenable whether based on superstition or science. In fact, we have no reason to think that there is an upper age limit at which a person can live but will definitely die. Natural selection cannot evolve such a "design". Although everyone will eventually die of old age, aging is a process of wearing away the "machine" of life, and there is no upper limit that is approaching gradually. We can say for sure that no one can live to be 1 or 1 years old, but it is impossible to know exactly how many years a person can live at most. For example, if a car manufacturer introduces a new car, we know that if we continue to use this car, it will eventually be scrapped. We can estimate its service life according to its original design, but unless we design a device to automatically scrap it when it reaches its service life, some cars will continue to be used after its service life expires. We can't infer what their longest life is. The only way is to investigate the life of all these cars, find out the one with the longest life and take it as the longest known life of the car. The same is true of the longest life span of human beings. We can't theorize it, but we should regard the oldest person in history as the oldest person known to mankind.

who is the oldest person in history? People may immediately think of the symbol of China's longevity-Peng Zu. It is said that he was born in Xia Dynasty and was 8 years old at the end of Shang Dynasty. This is nonsense, of course. Official historical records, the so-called "official history" or twenty-four histories, are more reliable. In the book Five Miscellaneous Groups, Xie Zhaozhe in the Ming Dynasty once made a statistic: "Life is a hundred years old, and it is exhausted, so more than one hundred and twenty people will not die, which is called a lost demon. However, Han Dugong is 18 years old. Jin Zhaoyi, 2 years old. Yuan Wei Luojun, 17 years old, was always thirty-six Cao Cao, and he was fine and fresh, and he died at one hundred and twenty. Luoyang Li Yuanshuang, 136 years old. Zhong Li Gu Siyuan, a 122-year-old man, has a fleshy head. The people of Yucheng are 24 years old. They don't eat grains and drink the milk of their great-grandchildren's wives. Zhang yuanshi county, a 116-year-old from Shangjin County, Jingzhou, is superior to others and can't eat differently. Fan Mingyou Xianbei slave, 25 years old. ......。 This is all recorded in the official history. " Among them, Bai Juyi, a great poet in the Tang Dynasty, mentioned "Luoyang Li Yuanshuang" in his preface to Nine Old Pictures. He settled in Luoyang in his later years. At the age of 74, he organized a "Nine Old People's Club" with eight elders, the oldest of whom was Li Yuanshuang, who was 136 years old. According to these records, there are many elderly people who lived over 12 years old, and some even lived over 2 years old.

There are similar legends and records abroad. According to the Jewish Bible-Genesis, before the flood, the life span of human beings was surprisingly long. The king of longevity was Methuselah, who lived 969 years. This is also nonsense, of course. Interestingly, like the Pentecostals of Moses, in Genesis, God also set the longest life span of future generations at 12 years ("The Lord says that since man is flesh and blood, my spirit will not live in him forever; But his life can still be one hundred and twenty years old "). However, in western history, there are also some people who have lived beyond this sacred period. The most famous is Thomas Parr, the birthday boy of England. The old man is a farmer in Shropshire, and the parish chronicle records that he was baptized in 1483. According to legal documents, he inherited his father's inheritance (a small farm) in 1518. Marriage records show that he got married for the first time at the age of 8 in 1563, and had a son and a daughter, but both died young. At the age of 1, he wore white clothes in church to make up for his unfaithfulness to his wife and the birth of an illegitimate child. In 165, 1 years after his wife died, he got married for the second time at the age of 122. In 1635, Earl of London heard about Parr's deeds when he visited Shropshire, so he took him to London to meet King Charles I. At this time, Parr had been blind for 2 years, but his wit made the king sit up and take notice of him. He was treated well and the king painted a portrait for him. Unfortunately, a few weeks later, he died on the spot while enjoying the palace feast. Dr. Harvey, the discoverer of blood circulation, conducted an autopsy on him and thought that he died of "acute indigestion caused by unaccustomed luxury diet". Charles I ordered Parr to be buried in Westminster Abbey, which is only used to bury kings and great men. The cemetery still exists today, and the epitaph says that he "lived for ten dynasties, ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………

however, the biggest problem with these historical records is that there is no conclusive evidence to prove that they are accurate and reliable. In the traditional society of respecting the elderly, people will exaggerate their age consciously or unconsciously, so it is doubtful whether their statement is true. Take Parr as an example, we know the exact year of his death, and even his death certificate has been preserved to this day, but there is no reliable data to prove that he was indeed born in 1483. The most reliable birth record is the birth certificate that only appeared in modern times. We have conclusive evidence to prove that the longevity champion is a French woman Jeanne Louise Calment. Her birth certificate shows that she was born on February 21, 1875. She sent away her husband (died in 1942), her only daughter (died in 1934) and her only grandson (died in 1963). In 1965, a lawyer signed an agreement with her to give her a monthly living allowance of 5 dollars in order to inherit the apartment she lived in after her death. At that time, the lawyer was only 47 years old and she was 9 years old, so the deal seemed to be a good deal for the lawyer. Unfortunately, 3 years later, after paying $184, (more than double the market value of the apartment), the lawyer died at the age of 77, but he could not get the ownership of the apartment, because Mrs. Carmen was still alive, and according to the agreement, the lawyer's family had to continue to pay her living expenses every month. At the age of 85, Mrs. Carmen began to learn fencing; At the age of 1, she still rode a bike; At the age of 11, she moved into a nursing home; On her 121st birthday, she released a record called "Time Housewives", which included some soundtrack memories. On August 4, 1997, she died in a nursing home at the age of 122 years and 164 days. The oldest person is Chiyo Izumi, a Japanese. He was born on June 29th, 1864 in Yi Shi-machi, Tokushima, Kagoshima Prefecture, and died on February 21st, 1986 at the age of 12 years and 237 days. He worked until he was 15.

after the death of Mrs Carmen, Mrs Maud-Ferris-Luce of Michigan, born on January 21st, 1887, became the champion of longevity. After her death on March 18th, 22, the title of Longevity Champion was passed on to a Mrs. Kitagawa Shou from Kagoshima City, Japan, who was also born in Yixian Town on September 16th, 1887. The oldest male is Yukichi Nakaganji, born on March 23, 1889, who lives in Kogun City, Fukuoka Prefecture, Japan. Few people can live to be 114 years old or above. It is estimated that only one in every 2.1 billion people can live to be 114 years old or above. No one knows whether these people will live longer than Mrs. Carmen. At present, we can only set the longest life expectancy of human beings as 122 years. However, this record will definitely be broken in the future, especially with the population growth, the number of people participating in the longevity competition increases, and with the improvement of medical and nutritional conditions, more and more people can live to the natural age, and the possibility of breaking the record will greatly increase.

no one can know how long anyone will live. But we can predict the average life expectancy of the population from the statistical point of view, which is the average life expectancy. If we want to know the life expectancy of a certain population, the most direct and accurate method is to calculate the average life expectancy after all their deaths. But this method is impractical, because it means that we have to wait for more than a century to make statistics. In fact, demographers use an indirect, inaccurate but much simpler statistical method. For many years, many governments have been counting the number of births and deaths every year, as well as the age of the deceased. The census also counts the number of people living in each age group. With this information, demographers can calculate the death risk of each age group and the survival probability of the next year. This survival probability forms a "life table", which shows the estimated life expectancy of people at any particular age. This estimate is called "periodic life expectancy" and varies according to the annual statistics. In 21, the average life expectancy in China was 71.8 years, while in 1981 it was 67.77 years, an increase of 4 years in 2 years. Before the founding of New China, the life expectancy of China people was only 35 years. According to the World Population Prospects published by the United Nations, the average life expectancy of developed countries is 75 years, while that of developing countries is 63 years. This shows that the average life expectancy of China is close to that of developed countries, and some areas have exceeded the average level of developed countries. For example, according to the statistics of the Population and Employment Statistics Department of the Shanghai Municipal Bureau of Statistics, the average life expectancy in Shanghai in 2 was 78.77 years, including 76.71 years for men and 8.81 years for women.

The life expectancy of different age groups constitutes a "life table". Life table generally separates men from women, including three columns: average remaining years, average remaining days and the probability of living to the next birthday. According to the life table of American population in 2, the average remaining life of men and women born in 2 (that is, the average life expectancy from 2 to death) is 73.5 years (26, days) and 79.6 years (29, days) respectively. If you are a 35-year-old American male in 2, the table shows that your average life expectancy is 14,92 days (4.8 years). Please note that the average remaining life is an average, which means that for a 35-year-old man, about half of them will live for more than 14,92 days, while the other half will live for less than this number. The watch also tells you that the probability of living to 36 is 99.8%.

if you carefully observe the probability of living to the next birthday in the life table, you will find that the probability of different age groups is different, and the probability of children and adolescents is the highest. The probability remains at around 99% before the age of 6, and then it begins to decline gradually, and then it drops sharply after the age of 9. For a 11-year-old man, the probability of living to his next birthday is less than half. This probability reflects the difference of mortality among people of all ages. Benjamin Gompertz, a British insurance statistician in the 19th century, first discovered this rule. In 1825, when he was working in a British insurance company, he tried to find a simple method to estimate the mortality rate of all ages, which was obviously very important for life insurance. After collecting and counting the mortality rate in his area, he found an interesting rule: the infant mortality rate is very high, and then it decreases year by year until it reaches the lowest point at the age of 1-15. After puberty, the mortality rate rises sharply, doubling about every 1 years (that is, the probability of death at the age of 25 is twice as high as that at the age of 15, the probability of death at the age of 35 is twice as high as that at the age of 25, and so on), and this trend continues until the age of 8. Next, Gomez investigated the mortality rates of Britain, France and Sweden in different historical periods, and found the same law. So he thought he had discovered a natural law-"the law of mortality". Later, researchers found that this rule also applies to other animals: at sexual maturity, the mortality rate reached its lowest point, and then the mortality rate began to increase exponentially. There is a biological reason behind Gompertz's law. Natural selection works through reproduction, if harmful factors (such as pathogenic genes) are regenerated in the body. ......