What are the chances that the lawyer will win the case?

Exactly what you said.

First, as far as this case is concerned, it is basically impossible to have a guarantor. Unless your friend is sick or something.

Second, the lawyer only defends from the perspective of innocence and minor crime, but to have such a plot, the lawyer's words alone are not enough.

Third, in theory it is possible to plead not guilty, but from a practical point of view, a lighter plea may be more realistic.

Fourth, what affects the outcome of the trial the most is, in the words of a lawyer, which can only be discussed after reading the paper.