Judging from the actual situation, there is no so-called probability that the procuratorate's criminal protest is successful and the second instance overturns the first instance. Whether the people's court will overturn the judgment of first instance needs to be verified based on the actual situation of the people's court and relevant laws and regulations. Please determine the specific situation according to the judgment of the people's court. Article 243rd of the Criminal Procedure Law of People's Republic of China (PRC), if the presidents of people's courts at all levels find that there is an error in ascertaining the facts or applying the law, they must submit it to the judicial committee for handling. The Supreme People's Court has the right to send back or instruct the people's courts at lower levels to retry the legally effective judgments and rulings of the people's courts at all levels. If the people's courts at higher levels find that there are indeed mistakes, they have the right to send back or instruct the people's courts at lower levels to retry. The Supreme People's Procuratorate has the right to lodge a protest with the people's court at the same level in accordance with the procedure of trial supervision if it finds that the legally effective judgment or ruling of the people's court at all levels is wrong, and the people's procuratorate at a higher level has the right to lodge a protest with the people's court at the same level in accordance with the procedure of trial supervision. When a people's procuratorate protests a case, the people's court that accepts the protest shall form a collegiate bench for retrial. If the facts of the original judgment are unclear or the evidence is insufficient, the people's court at a lower level may be ordered to retry.
Filing a case by protest means that the defendant refuses to accept the judgment of the original trial and applies to the higher court for appeal. Filing a protest itself cannot guarantee its success rate, and its result will depend on the specific circumstances, evidence and handling process of the case, as well as the situation of each link in the appeal process.
For lodging a protest, if the defendant applying for an appeal can provide sufficient and powerful evidence to prove that the judgment of the original trial was seriously wrong, unfair or illegal, it may achieve a high success rate and thus get a fair treatment. At the same time, the application for protest also needs to comply with the corresponding legal provisions, such as the time of filing an appeal and the jurisdiction of the court. If these conditions and regulations are not met, the appeal application may be rejected.
However, it should be noted that the appeal can't be won only by citing new evidence or new arguments. When reviewing the protest, the procuratorate or the higher court will also review, debate and judge whether the original trial procedure is legal and whether the judgment is reasonable, so the success rate of the appeal is not absolute and needs to be evaluated according to the specific circumstances of the case.
Therefore, for lodging a protest, the defendant needs to make a decision according to the specific case and seek professional legal advice and help to ensure the reasonable maintenance of his own situation.
I hope the above content can help you. If in doubt, please consult a professional lawyer.
Legal basis:
Article 2 18 of the Criminal Procedure Law of People's Republic of China (PRC).
If the victim or his legal representative refuses to accept the judgment of first instance of the local people's courts at all levels, he has the right to request the people's procuratorate to lodge a protest within five days after receiving the judgment. After receiving the request of the victim and his legal representative, the people's procuratorate shall make a decision on whether to protest within five days and reply to the request.