At 8: 00 pm on March 16, Vanke launched the "Vanke Star City" project in Shenzhen by selling houses online. The 288 suites launched that night were all sold out within 7 minutes, with sales of 299 million.
On March 20th, three properties in Suzhou were opened at the same time, and nearly 900 suites were launched. Whether it is online sales or offline housing selection projects, it is almost "second light". On March 24th, Shao, CEO of Longhu Group, specifically mentioned the "record" of one of its projects at the performance meeting: 3 1 1 suite source, and 10 was robbed in minutes.
He also said that as one of the regions where the real estate market is recovering rapidly, the transaction scale in the "Yangtze River Delta" region has returned to 80% of the normal level.
With the further control of the COVID-19 epidemic, the real estate market is recovering rapidly. Among them, the reappearance of "robbing houses" seems to mean that the previous backlog of market demand is being released in a centralized way, and may promote a retaliatory rebound in the market.
How to interpret this signal? The insiders believe that the sales of some projects in Suzhou exceeded expectations, which is not only caused by the backlog of demand, but also the result of the new talent policy. As a first-tier city, Shenzhen has a strong demand. Generally speaking, the phenomenon of "grabbing houses" under the recovery of the market has both universal significance and particularity. The demand structure based on just-needed demand and the policy tone of "housing and not speculating" also determine that it is difficult for the market to experience irrational fluctuations.
The turnover has recovered by about 70%.
Suzhou's grand occasion of "grabbing houses" is not only due to the backlog of demand in the early stage, but also the timing of three projects.
Earlier in the day, Suzhou introduced a new talent policy, and undergraduate education (no more than 45 years old) can be directly settled without social security; Junior college (no more than 35 years old) can be settled in social security for 6 consecutive months.
This also means that the purchase threshold of Suzhou property market will be further lowered.
Although the policy will be implemented from May this year 1, its impact on market expectations cannot be ignored. A person from a real estate enterprise in Suzhou told 2 1 Century Business Herald that March and April are the "Koharu" of Suzhou property market every year, but this year, due to the COVID-19 epidemic, there is a backlog of demand. The introduction of the new talent policy has stimulated these demands. She revealed that after the introduction of the new talent policy, the number of telephone calls and field trips of the company's projects have increased.
In response to the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic, after the Spring Festival, various localities have successively introduced policies to support housing enterprises. In March, the policy direction gradually extended from rationalization measures to expanding supply and stimulating demand, and the new talent policy was one of them.
Before the New Deal in Suzhou, Guangzhou, Shantou and Foshan successively introduced the New Deal for Talents in mid-March, further relaxing the conditions for settlement. Also in mid-March, Jinan had the conditions to relax the purchase restriction, and Luzhou stimulated the market by issuing housing subsidies.
On March 24th, the official micro-signal of Haining Daily reported that during the one-month period when Haining held the Shang Yun Housing Expo, the policy of "non-Haining registered population is restricted from buying houses in Haining" was temporarily not implemented.
Recently, although there is a precedent that the property market policy has been suspended due to excessive loosening, Yan Yuejin, director of the think tank center of Shanghai Yiju Real Estate Research Institute, still believes that the moderate loosening of the property market policy within the framework of "one city, one policy" will be the recent trend. The stimulus of these policies, coupled with the concentrated release of backlog demand during the Spring Festival holiday and epidemic, has become the main driving force for the rapid recovery of the property market in the near future.
According to the data of Shanghai Yiju Research Institute, since the end of February, the volume of new houses in major cities has gradually picked up from the bottom. By mid-March, the transaction volume of new houses in the national real estate market had recovered to 70% of the level at the beginning of the year.
In terms of second-hand housing, RealData pointed out that in the 18 cities covered by chain homes, "the average transaction volume of the second-hand housing market has increased by 9 1.3% every week in the past four weeks". Last week (March1June-22), the turnover was equivalent to 75% of the average weekly level in March last year. Among them, the volume of transactions in Guangzhou, Qingdao and Xi 'an exceeded the same period of last year, Shanghai-Chengdu was close to the same period of last year, and the recovery in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region was relatively slow.
Shao said at the performance meeting that it is expected that the real estate market will return to normal level by April this year. With reference to the fact that the epidemic has been further controlled and the real estate industry has resumed work, this view can quite represent the mainstream view of the industry.
The price will not go up sharply.
With the release of demand and the recovery of the market, will a retaliatory rebound similar to "grabbing houses" occur on a large scale?
Yan Yuejin believes that the occurrence of "grabbing houses" has its particularity, such as policy stimulus and backlog of demand, and even does not rule out the practice of "hunger marketing" by housing enterprises. But overall, with the rapid recovery of supply, there will be no large-scale retaliatory rebound in the market.
He said that high inventory and short-term capital chain pressure will force real estate enterprises to speed up the push, thus rapidly increasing market supply. At the policy level, all localities are also "giving a green light" to increase supply.
For example, in March 10, Dongguan issued the relevant document "Improving the system and mechanism of promoting consumption", which emphasized "simplifying the process of housing price filing". Changchun is also in March.
On the 23rd, a document was issued to lower the threshold for applying for pre-sale permit.
According to the statistics of major institutions, since March, the supply scale of both new and second-hand houses has increased significantly.
However, a real estate enterprise in Beijing pointed out to the 2 1 Century Business Herald that the change of demand side is more sensitive than the stepped supply side, which has a certain "herding effect". Therefore, in the process of market recovery, demand tends to increase rapidly, and short-term demand is inevitable. He said that the recent visits and sales of some new housing projects in Beijing are better than the same period last year. Due to good sales, many projects began to cancel the previous preferential measures.
According to 2 1 century business report, in many cities, preferential measures have been cancelled. However, except for some second-hand houses, the phenomenon of price increase has not yet appeared on a large scale.
Yan Yuejin said that at present, the driving force for rising house prices does exist. Among them, the market price of new houses is difficult to rise sharply due to measures such as price limit. In contrast, the price of second-hand houses is more likely to rise.
But he also pointed out that even if there is a "small spring" in the market in the future, the price will not rise sharply. Because under the continuous regulation in recent years, just need has become
As the main body of the current demand structure, this part of the demand is more rational and more sensitive to price changes, and they will not support the sharp rise in housing prices. At the same time, in "
Under the control idea of "living in a house without speculation", various control policies will not be loosened on a large scale, and there is no room for a sharp rise in house prices.