Will the premium increase after the second comprehensive reform?

The rate of the second comprehensive reform of auto insurance has decreased and increased, and the curtain of the second comprehensive reform of auto insurance has gradually opened! According to the regulatory requirements, all regions will adopt the latest independent pricing coefficient of commercial auto insurance by the end of May at the latest, and Beijing, Tianjin, Fujian and other provinces and cities have taken the lead in piloting on April 28th. Previously, the industry predicted that with the adjustment of the independent pricing coefficient of commercial auto insurance, auto insurance pricing will be further liberalized, the auto insurance price of "good car owners" will be further reduced, and the premium of high-risk car owners will be further increased. "The feeling is quite obvious. My car insurance was originally the lowest price given by my friend. I didn't expect it to drop again. " Mr. Cai's private car insurance, who lives in Tangshan, Hebei Province, will expire in June. Recently, he found that the commercial insurance premium in 200 yuan was nearly 1.000 yuan last year, but only1.000 yuan this year. According to the policy information provided by Mr. Cai, the commercial insurance premium was11.72 yuan last year, and this year's renewal offer was reduced to1kloc-0/4.98 yuan, with a price reduction of 17%. The decline in commercial insurance premiums of car owners not only benefited from good driving habits, but also enjoyed policy dividends. As early as the end of 2022, the CBRC issued the Notice on Further Expanding the Floating Range of Independent Pricing Coefficient of Commercial Auto Insurance (hereinafter referred to as the Notice), which further expanded the pricing autonomy of property insurance companies by expanding the floating range of independent pricing coefficient of commercial auto insurance. The circular clarified that the floating range of independent pricing coefficient of commercial auto insurance was expanded from [0.65, 1.35] to [0.5, 1.5], which was called "the second comprehensive reform" by the industry. At present, Beijing, Tianjin, Fujian and other provinces and cities have started the first batch of new rate standards on April 28th, and the implementation time of other provinces and cities shall not be later than June 1 day in principle. The adjustment of independent pricing coefficient directly affects the auto insurance premium. According to the calculation formula of commercial auto insurance premium (commercial auto insurance premium = benchmark premium ×NCD coefficient × independent pricing coefficient), the adjusted auto insurance premium can be lowered by 23% at the highest and raised by 1 1% at the highest. Mr. Cai, who will renew his insurance in June, caught up with this wave of dividends. Auto insurance reform has always been a major event that benefits people's livelihood. According to the statistics of the Ministry of Public Security, in 2022, the number of cars in China reached 3190,000, and the number of drivers reached 464 million. After the implementation of the comprehensive reform of auto insurance, the phased goal of "reducing prices, increasing insurance and improving quality" has basically been achieved. According to the data of China Banking Regulatory Commission, as of June 2022, the average premium of auto insurance decreased by 2 1% compared with that before the reform, and 87% of consumers' premium expenditure decreased. Then, how will the second comprehensive reform of auto insurance affect the money bags of the majority of car owners? Therefore, only a few high-quality car owners are expected to get lower discounts. It is generally believed in the industry that after the insurance company implements the Notice, this adjustment will make the auto insurance pricing more refined, and the premium of car owners with good driving habits will be lower, while the premium of "high-risk car owners" will face an increase. However, there is limited room for the downward adjustment of "floor price", and only some high-quality car owners can enjoy the price reduction treatment. "It is unrealistic to reduce the cost of auto insurance on a large scale. At present, the profit margin of auto insurance is relatively small. After the economy and life return to normal, the risk rate of auto insurance will increase, and insurance companies are generally under great pressure. Therefore, the market reaction should be that the rate has dropped and risen. " Li Wenzhong, deputy director of capital university of economics and business Rural Insurance Research Institute, said that this adjustment is conducive to improving the formation mechanism of rate marketization, giving play to the decisive role of market mechanism in the allocation of resources in the auto insurance market, improving the matching degree between vehicle risks and rates, and stimulating the vitality of the auto insurance market. Soochow securities non-bank research team also said that this adjustment will make the auto insurance pricing more refined, and the premium will be lower for car owners with good driving habits. However, considering that less than 1% of the tickets are close to the "floor price" (0.65) and about 5% of the tickets are close to the "ceiling" (1.35), it is expected that the average value of the independent pricing coefficient of the industry will remain stable. If decreasing from 0.65 to 0.5 is the preference of "good car owners", then increasing from 1.35 to 1.5 will help to open a window for high-risk vehicles. "It cannot be simply understood that this is a price cut." A senior executive of a property insurance company told the beijing business today reporter today that the adjustment of auto insurance independent pricing coefficient is to make insurance companies price more accurately and truly feedback the risks of customers. At the same time, for high-risk businesses, such as refrigerated trucks, large trucks, taxis, etc. Further raising the pricing ceiling is conducive to solving the industry problems of high-risk auto insurance in some areas. But judging from the current situation, the market's response is not as sensitive and rapid as expected. Yong Yang, a salesman in charge of auto insurance for large trucks in an insurance brokerage company, told the beijing business today reporter today that at present, the business of large trucks in various insurance companies is still restricted, and the price has not changed much. The insurance of large trucks needs to be discussed separately, and the subsequent market changes remain to be seen. Regulators can adjust the floating range of auto insurance independent pricing coefficient, which can give consumers tangible benefits, but it may have a far-reaching impact on insurance companies. "The pricing of insurance companies will be more accurate, and they will be able to provide customers with differentiated pricing and services." The above-mentioned property insurance company executives said. For the future trend of auto insurance market, Huatai Securities analyst Li Jian analyzed in the relevant research report that the expansion of the floating range of auto insurance pricing coefficient enables insurance companies to reduce the discount coefficient of auto insurance, and the expansion of discount coefficient may lead to intensified competition. In the era of low expense ratio, the advantages of scale, network, data and pricing of large insurance companies are hard to be shaken in a short time. Li Wenzhong pointed out that it can be predicted that the competition in the auto insurance market will be further intensified after the auto insurance independent pricing coefficient is further relaxed. Because auto insurance is an industry with scale effect, those large and medium-sized insurance companies have stronger pressure tolerance in the competition, and the differentiation of the auto insurance market will be further intensified in the future. Some small and medium-sized companies will accelerate their withdrawal from the auto insurance market and further concentrate their business on large and medium-sized insurance companies.