However, things are a bit confusing. "The shortage of chips is a long-term thing in the whole industry, but it is not so exaggerated." "We accidentally put a gun, and these data are not true." On the one hand, it is the recognition of the status quo of "lack of core", on the other hand, it is a variety of discretion, afraid of offending each other. This not only makes us curious, what kind of reality is behind it?
Uncover the "hidden story" of chip supply
From an article "North and South Volkswagen will stop production from now on!" Lack of core will affect millions of production capacity! According to the report, there is an important message: the lack of chip supply has led to the suspension of production by North and South Volkswagen, and it is a high-end semiconductor chip, in which the positioning of high-end and above models has the most obvious impact.
Car home contacted Audi (China) for the first time, and they responded that the uncertainty of COVID-19 epidemic affected the supply of chips for some specific automotive electronic components. "The comprehensive recovery of the China market has further promoted the growth of demand, leading to the risk of interruption of some automobile production."
Car home learned about the first-line factory information. "The three factories of SAIC Volkswagen Anting have stopped, and the factory in Yizheng, Yangzhou is still in normal production." In addition, according to car home, FAW-Volkswagen has not completely stopped production.
The mainland and Bosch, as stakeholders of mass incidents, also expressed their views. Bosch public relations staff told car home, "At present, the global semiconductor parts procurement market does have an overall shortage under the influence of multiple factors."
In contrast, the response of the public relations staff of Continental Group is somewhat intriguing. "The mainland agrees with the analysis of the semiconductor industry chain by the reporting industry, which is the crux of the whole industry. However, we accidentally put the gun down. In addition, the inventory data about us is not true. "
Is the chip supply really tight? The situation is basically true. According to car home, at present, the chip supply of many car companies is relatively tight, and this tight situation may last for more than half a year.
According to the general rule, the chip procurement cycle is 6- 12 months ahead of schedule, which is mainly purchased by first-class suppliers. Under such a procurement cycle, chip supply is at an important node. I didn't expect the epidemic to hit this year, which affected everyone's judgment on the direction of the auto market. In the second half of the year, the auto market continued to improve, and the supply problem became the dominant issue.
However, why are enterprises so secretive when responding to the problem of "lack of core"? Because chip supply is a long chain, from upstream raw materials to downstream suppliers and automakers, it is of great significance. Does the shortage of supply mean that there will be problems in my production capacity and delivery? How to explain to consumers? Will it affect the long-term development of the enterprise? Therefore, this has become a "hidden feeling."
Therefore, in the face of the problem of "lack of core", Infineon's public relations staff gave a more euphemistic response. "The shortage of chips is not a business of a certain enterprise, but also involves the upstream raw materials and the entire industrial chain. There are many kinds of chips, and there are also shortages of other types of chips. "
The power of the chip
The problem that the North and South Volkswagen stopped production due to "lack of core" made us have a deeper understanding of the power of this small chip.
Automobile chips are not the first-class supply components in the automobile industry, but are often embedded in electronic controllers and assembled as first-class components, thus affecting the function of the whole vehicle.
To carry out a simple science popularization, automobile chips can be divided into three categories: the first category is processor and controller chips, which are mainly used for the control, display and operation of smart cars, such as central control, ADAS and automatic driving system, as well as engine, chassis and body control; The second type is analog chips, which are mainly used for power supply and interfaces, such as automobile Ethernet and logic, discrete chips and so on. The third category is sensor chips, such as airbags, tire pressure detection, radar and other fields.
"Application fields of different chips"
It can be seen that automobile chips involve many dimensions, such as body, instrument/infotainment system, chassis/safety, powertrain, advanced assisted driving/automatic driving, etc. ESP and ECU products occupy an important position in chassis/safety and powertrain respectively, and the importance of the core chip is self-evident.
Another important fact is the importance of bicycle chips. Give a set of public data: since 20 15, the semiconductor content of diesel locomotives has increased by 23.4% on average. Of course, under the trend of "new four modernizations", the semiconductor content in automobiles will continue to increase.
"NXP used to provide semiconductor components for BMW 7 Series bicycles at a cost of more than $300." Yao Jiayang, senior analyst of Jibang Consulting, made no secret of the "toughness" of automobile chips. He believes that cars will continue to be overweight in the process of intelligence and electrification, and the cost of semiconductor components used in a high-end model in the future will exceed $65,438+$0,000.
"Lack of Core" and then "Price Rising Tide"
However, in addition to the problem of "lack of core", another thing is happening quietly. Under the market regulation, there will inevitably be price fluctuations behind the supply relationship. I'm afraid the chip "price surge" is coming.
165438+1October 26th, an English price increase letter came out from NXP, the general supplier of automobile chip factory, which translated to the effect that due to the COVID-19 epidemic, NXP decided to raise the price of products across the board due to the double impact of serious shortage of products and rising raw material costs.
How much is the price increase? It is understood that due to the continuous shortage of wafer supply, the price increase of NXP products may jump by 5% in the next year, and some products still need customers to sign a one-year NCNR (no refund, no exchange) agreement.
Subsequently, Japanese semiconductor manufacturer Renesas Electronics announced its "price increase" for the same reason as NXP: Renesas Electronics plans to increase the prices of some analog and power products due to the increase in raw materials and packaging costs, and the effective date of the price increase is 202 1 year 1 month 1 day.
"As far as we know, Infineon is also brewing price increases, but the information has not been officially announced yet." A person familiar with the matter told car home that due to multiple problems such as raw materials and supply, the "price surge" of chip companies is likely to come.
Is it too early to judge the arrival of "price increase tide" only by the price increase of these enterprises? Let's take a look at the market position of these head enterprises. According to a set of data released by American consulting firm StrategyAnalytics, in the global automotive semiconductor field, Infineon's market share increased from 1 1.2% to 13.4%, and NXP ranked second with 1 1.3%, followed by Renesas Electronics and Texas Instruments.
The market share of the five major companies is close to half of the global automotive semiconductors. If they set off a "price hike", I'm afraid it will have a great impact.
As a core component, chips began to raise prices collectively. Whether the rising cost will be digested by downstream suppliers or transmitted to the whole industrial chain is a realistic problem. Of course, the skyrocketing price directly tests the affordability of different OEMs. More importantly, even if the price rises, it is difficult to ensure adequate supply. then what
The price increase may promote the arrival of a new round of reshuffle. China is a big country that digests automobile chips, but it has never had enough right to speak, and the core parts are subject to people. However, whether the strong will remain strong and whether the weak will be eliminated will be the problems faced by chip companies and upstream and downstream industrial chains.
What are the chances of replacing domestic chips?
We may have such a question, why did all this happen so coincidentally? Is it a coincidence that the storm of "lack of core" struck, followed by a round of "price increase tide"
China's car "lack of core" is nothing new. Zhang Qiang, a senior analyst of automobile chips, told car home that China automobile enterprises have been in a state of "lack of core" for 20 16 years. On 20 18, Xu Heyi, the former chairman of BAIC Group, mentioned that "car companies grab chips", and the tide of "lack of chips" was once again exposed. Until today, the "lack of core" of North and South Volkswagen stopped production, and the problem of "lack of core" was once again hotly debated.
Since there is such a "lack of core", can't China enterprises supply their own products? The reality is quite tragic. In 20 19, the global automobile chip market was about 3 10 billion yuan, while the domestic automobile chip industry was less than10.5 billion yuan, accounting for less than 4.5%, which was far from the 30% share of China automobile market.
Roland berger pointed out in the White Paper of China New Energy Vehicle Supply Chain that among the top 20 automotive semiconductor industries, there are only 1 local enterprises in China. Another set of data shows that in China's annual automobile market of 28 million vehicles, China's automobile semiconductor output value accounts for less than 5% of the world, and the import degree of some key parts exceeds 80%-90%.
I am afraid that technical strength is also a hurdle. As Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the National Passenger Car Federation, said, the chips used by China automobile manufacturers are basically monopolized by foreign countries, and the share of domestic chips in the global market is very small, so it is a long process to develop independent chips.
Fortunately, domestic enterprises didn't sit still, and realized the importance of automobile chips very early. In 2005, BYD began to form an IGBT (Insulated Gate Bipolar Transistor) R&D team. Of course, there are also cooperative R&D enterprises. BAIC Investment and Imagination Group jointly established Beijing Nuclear Core; Yi Cartoon Technology controlled by Geely Group and Arm China jointly established Hubei Xinqing Technology; SAIC and Infineon jointly established IGBT company SAIC Infineon Semiconductor Company.
However, there is a gap of 2-5 generations between China's automobile chips and the international advanced level, and it will not happen overnight to catch up. As Teng Ran, general manager of CCID Consulting Integrated Circuit Industry Research Center said, a number of excellent chip companies have emerged in the fields of automatic driving, car gauge sensors, car gauge power devices and car gauge niche memory. However, we started late and accumulated less technology and market. The automotive semiconductor industry in China is still in its infancy.
Editor's summary: Only self-reliance can break the curse of "lack of core"
Behind the large-scale shutdown, there is a deep reality, that is, the weakness of the domestic chip industry. The shortage of chips has also ushered in price increases. In addition to market rules, there is also a problem of the right to speak behind it. Because our core technology is "stuck", the bargaining power is not enough. When will China's chips go up? We hope this day will come soon. Only by realizing independent supply can we completely solve the pain of "lack of core" (Text/car home? Li Zhengguang)