On August 16, Dalian issued the Notice on Further Strengthening the Regulation and Supervision of the Real Estate Market (hereinafter referred to as the Notice), which carried out regulation and upgrading in the aspects of restricting the listing and trading of newly purchased houses, limiting the premium rate of residential land transfer, strengthening the price guidance of newly-built commercial housing, and strengthening the financial management of real estate, and fired the first shot of this round of property market regulation in the three northeastern provinces.
Many insiders said in an interview with the National Business Daily that the impact of Dalian's New Deal mainly lies in cracking down on real estate speculation by investors. Stabilize market expectations through the management and guidance of land and new house prices.
Short-term strike operation
As a city with the top 30 GDP among the four major cities in Northeast China, Dalian's property market regulation has been "stable" in recent years. The last regulation policy was to implement commodity housing price guidance from 2065438 to July 2009.
The reporter found out that in the 70-city housing price data released by the National Bureau of Statistics today, the sales price of new commercial housing in Dalian increased by 0.6% in July, up by 6.1%year-on-year; The increase of second-hand houses rose by 0.4% month-on-month and 6% year-on-year, leading the increase in housing prices in the three eastern provinces.
The "Notice" shows that listing transactions are strictly restricted. All newly purchased houses in Zhongshan District, Xigang District, Shahekou District, Ganjingzi District and High-tech Zone can be listed and traded for five years from the date of online signing, and second-hand houses can be listed and traded for three years; Reduce the highest premium rate of residential land in Zhongshan District, Xigang District, Shahekou District and Ganjingzi District, and adopt bidding methods such as "limiting the highest premium rate until it reaches the highest premium rate" and "turning into competitive housing area after reaching the highest premium rate", strictly limit the premium rate of residential land transfer, and achieve the goal of stabilizing land price, house price and expectation.
This also means that Dalian has expanded the scope of restricted sales and added Ganjingzi District; The restricted period of new houses was extended from 2 years to 5 years, the restricted period of second-hand houses was extended from 2 years to 3 years, and the maximum premium of 49% of land was further lowered.
Pan Hao, a senior analyst at RealData, said that on the one hand, the new policy has cracked down on investors' real estate speculation and reduced the frequency of sales by limiting their turnover time; On the other hand, the management and guidance of land and new house prices will stabilize market expectations.
In addition, "the policy of restricting sales has become a regulatory policy adopted by many cities recently, and it is also a blow to short-term operations, which fully shows the current orientation of Dalian to crack down on investment speculation and real estate speculation." Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of Yiju Research Institute, pointed out that Dalian has a good idea of confirming the reserve price, which has reduced the practice of simply controlling the premium rate in the past. "The follow-up operation of' controlling the reserve price and controlling the premium' will become an important embodiment of the land market in various places."
The premium rate of many plots peaked.
In fact, since the beginning of this year, major developers have been in a high mood to take land in Dalian, and high premium plots have appeared frequently, with the highest premium rate of many plots as high as 49%.
On February 4th, China Merchants Shekou defeated 8 real estate enterprises such as China Resources and Poly at a premium rate of 210.20 billion yuan, and won a residential land in Dalian Sports New Town, which was equivalent to the floor price of 1.654.38+0.26 yuan /m2.
On May 2 1 day, three land auctions were held in Chunpan, Ganjingzi District, Dalian, attracting 13 housing enterprises such as Jindi, Greentown, Longhu China Railway Construction, Vanke, Ocean Shipping and Country Garden. In the end, Vanke and Greentown carved up three new sites, with a total transaction price exceeding 2.8 billion yuan. Among them, the total transaction price of a piece of land acquired by Vanke is 8160,000 yuan, with a premium rate of 49%, and the comprehensive floor price is 1 12 yuan/square meter; The total transaction price of a piece of land won by Greentown is 65.438+50.4 million yuan, the premium rate is 48.6%, and the comprehensive floor price is 65.438+0.2068 yuan/square meter.
According to a data from the same institution in Dalian, although the government's land supply is insufficient, the land market turnover of Dalian in the first half of 202 1.43 million square meters decreased by 4 1% compared with last year, but the floor price of land transactions increased by 28% year-on-year. "In the first half of this year, the total sales area of the top ten housing enterprises such as Poly and China Shipping reached 2.65 million square meters, accounting for 71%of the city; Correspondingly, half of the top 10 real estate enterprises have less than 800,000 square meters of soil storage, and the demand for follow-up development is large, which makes it urgent for developers to get land. " Homology analysis of the same policy in Dalian pointed out that.
"In 20021year, the proportion of plots with high land premium rate in Dalian increased, and the proportion of plots with more than 40% was 9%, up 6 percentage points from 2020." Pan Hao further stated, "Recently, cities with high market heat have entered an intensive regulation cycle, and the land market heat in Dalian has improved or is one of the reasons for the introduction of this policy."
The "Notice" specifically proposes to strictly regulate the information release of the real estate market. Their respective media and network platforms should strictly abide by relevant laws, regulations and management regulations, strictly regulate the information release behavior, and evaluate the legality, compliance, authenticity and guidance of the released information in advance. All relevant departments have seriously investigated and dealt with illegal acts that disrupt market order, such as fabricating and spreading false statements, spreading statements about rising house prices and creating panic.
The reporter noticed that when the local auction in Dalian was hot in the first half of the year, some self-media published comments such as "202 1 Dalian house prices will rise" on social platforms, calling on fans to buy houses as soon as possible. However, some people are more rational. They think that the heat of Dalian property market is slowly declining, there are not so many people buying houses, the turnover of second-hand houses has been declining, and the second-hand houses for sale in Dalian are also increasing.
In the past three years, the growth rate of transactions has been stable.
The fiery land market has also spread to the new housing market, which is different from the tepid cities in Northeast China such as Shenyang and Changchun. Dalian experienced several months of hot market in the first half of this year.
"Since the Spring Festival this year, the market has obviously improved. Our residential products have all been sold out in the first half of the year, and only some public buildings are currently on sale. " When the National Business Daily reporter consulted the Vanke Emerald Academy project in Shahekou District of Dalian as a buyer, the property consultant of the project said so.
Coincidentally, many projects, including Dalian Sunac No.1 Hospital and China Shipping Yuelu Mountain, achieved hot sales in the first half of this year, and many high-priced projects entered the market one after another. For example, the average price of Zhonghai Donggang project is as high as 47,500 yuan/square meter, while the average price of Dalian Donggang plate has been 26,000 yuan ~ 27,000 yuan/square meter; New Hope Jinlin Jiuxi, located in Ganjingzi District, rose from the average price of 30,000 yuan/square meter at the opening of March 2, 20201to the current price of 35,000 yuan/square meter.
"According to the data released by Dalian Statistics Bureau, the year-on-year growth rate of commercial housing transaction area from 20 18 to 2020 is -7.6%,-15. 1% and 8.5% respectively. The main reason for the change from negative to positive in 2020 is that the base of the previous year was relatively low, indicating that the growth rate of commercial housing transactions in Dalian in the past three years was relatively stable. " Pan Hao said that the average transaction price of commercial housing in Dalian continued to increase this year, but in the long run, the growth rate was in a stable fluctuation range.