What is the development trend of business in the future?

E-commerce is only one aspect of the future commercial development trend. There is a saying that the success or failure of an enterprise depends entirely on its execution, which is not comprehensive and wrong. The right market, technology and geographical area are also crucial, especially as the goal of long-term economic development. Western countries also believe that choosing the right market and geographical area is the key to success, such as banking, telecommunications and technology. It just confirms the sentence that "a poor manager leads a good market industry better than a medium manager leads a poor market industry". The macroeconomic trend is the first. The acceleration centered on economic activities is not only the global economization, but also the development of regional economy. This is due to economic liberalization, the development of information technology, the development of capital market and the change of regional population migration. Today, Asia (except Japan, hey Japan is a miracle of Asian economic rise, and whether China can subvert this myth again depends on development) accounts for 13% of the world GDP, while Europe accounts for 30% of the total GDP. In the next 20 years, manufacturing and information technology industries will gather around the world and reach the peak of re-alliance. In addition, the regional economy has also accelerated its development. In the next 20 years, the United States will continue to maintain its absolute economic growth advantage. Second, the public sector "bubbles" the economy. Therefore, it is very important to strengthen production efficiency. The whole world is facing the crisis of population aging, especially in Europe, in which the population of Germany aged above (>: 75) grows fastest, reaching 33%(2005-20 15). These will inevitably lead to a decline in productivity, and pensions and medical care will certainly shoulder greater responsibilities, forcing the tax system to reform. This is the so-called "let relatively few young people support relatively many old people!" Third, the change and expansion of the consumer market. In the next 10 year, nearly one billion consumers will enter the global consumer market-people can choose their own goods freely. By 20 15, the consumption capacity of Asia has risen from 4 trillion to 9 trillion, which is basically close to the current consumption capacity of western Europe. The changes of consumers in different segments in developed countries are also obvious. By 20 15, the consumption power of Spaniards in the United States will be equivalent to 60% of the consumption group in China. No matter where, the number of consumers who master and use the same product and brand will increase. Social and environmental trends There are four aspects of social and environmental factors. Although it is difficult to predict and its impact on business is uncertain, it will completely affect people's way of life and work. Fourth, the development of science and technology will change people's way of life and communication. The technological revolution has just begun and is not yet mature. Individuals, public enterprises and commercial organizations are learning how to use information technology to design and develop knowledge. For example, some fields: bioengineering, laser technology, nanotechnology. Our working style is not only global, but also real-time, and new groups and relationships have been established (in fact, in 2005, 65,438+02% of American newlyweds met through the Internet). More than 2 billion people use mobile phones and send more than 9 trillion emails every year. In the future, the change of time and geographical position will no longer be the main limitation of social and economic development. Fifth, the "talent war" will change. Countries with relatively low wages will experience large-scale employment migration. Knowledge-intensive industries will pay more attention to well-educated talents. The number of professionals with university education in developing countries will be twice that in developed countries. For most companies and governments, global manpower and talent strategy is particularly important as a global procurement and manufacturing strategy. Sixth, large commercial organizations will face more detailed audits. Due to the globalization of business and the change of economic demand environment, the suspicion of big companies will also increase. For example, chicken plague happened a while ago, and KFC immediately made a market response strategy and made various advertising brochures to explain the procedures and processes of chicken processing to ensure people's peace of mind. Tragedy and environmental disasters are bound to occur in a certain proportion. This is not just the next five years, but the next 250 years. In the next 10 year, truly powerful global companies will appear. Commercial companies, especially large companies, have never been concerned by society. Business leaders must prove to society that persuading them will create more social welfare for people. Seventh, the demand for natural resources will continue to grow, resulting in environmental pressure. In the next 20 years, oil prices will rise by 50%. Without new discoveries and fundamental innovations, supply cannot keep up. For example, in the past 10 years, China's demand for steel, iron and aluminum has tripled. The resources of the world will be even scarcer. The shortage of water resources will be the most important crisis faced by many countries. Therefore, technological innovation, new regulations and resources utilization will be the core of the world theme, which will also promote economic development and support the needs of the environment. Trends in commercial and industrial development. A new global industrial structure has emerged. Under the influence of the development of new technology, non-traditional business models will coexist in the same market and space. Many industries are barbell-like structures, with many giants above and narrow middle. Secondly, many small-scale and fast-growing players are at the bottom. Ninth, art management moves towards scientific management. In the future, newer, larger and more complex companies will emerge and need new management tools. In fact, advanced technology and statistics will realize new management methods for millions of organizations. Today's business company leaders use mathematical calculation-decision-making technology and use quite complicated software management organization-scientific management! Tenth, ubiquitous information changes the era of knowledge economy. Knowledge is everywhere, and it will be more subdivided and specialized. The most obvious trend is that the most popular search engines, such as Google and Baidu, have created immediacy of infinite knowledge base. Knowledge acquisition has almost become global. Therefore, new modes of knowledge production, acquisition, channels and ownership will emerge! We are observing that open knowledge develops as a group rather than as an individual. Knowledge manufacturing itself will also grow, such as global patent applications, with an annual growth rate of 20% from 1990 to 2004. Companies must learn how to balance the globalization of this new type of knowledge, or how to reduce the risk of being submerged in the "information explosion"