One of the reasons: the fundamentals of supply and demand in the property market have been basically balanced, and the "big year" in which the fundamentals of the property market have picked up and improved this year is unsustainable.
According to the results of the same policy consulting and research department, around 20 10, the average number of housing units in urban households in China has reached 1.0. According to international standards, the average number of housing units in urban households has reached 1.0, which means that the supply and demand of China's real estate market have basically balanced, and the property market has entered the second half. In the future, the growth rate of incremental housing in the property market will decrease, and the real estate market will gradually enter the era of stock houses. For the future demand characteristics of the real estate market, it will reflect the market characteristics of relatively stable growth rate and more differentiated demand.
Judging from the general trend of the property market, the current property market has entered the second half, the fundamentals of supply and demand are basically balanced, and the market demand is basically met. This year, the "big year" in which the fundamentals of the property market have recovered and improved due to several rounds of "bailout" policies is unsustainable.
The second reason: after the "double drop" of the central bank, the demand for the property market will be overdrawn, and the property market will fall into the Great Depression after the madness in the second half of the year.
Since the "330 New Deal" this year, the volume and price of the real estate market in large and medium-sized cities have rebounded, mainly due to the centralized release of the backlog of demand in the past and the overdraft of market demand caused by the centralized release of demand. If housing enterprises think that the property market will keep such a trend of volume and price in the future, it is actually a misjudgment of the market, and it is very likely to fall into a passive situation when the market changes in the future.
Judging from the market development trend after the "double drop" of the current central bank, when the current market demand is released in the fourth quarter, the next round of market adjustment will come. The author believes that after the "double drop" of the central bank, the volume and price of the current round of property market rose at most until the end of the fourth quarter of this year. In other words, after the central bank's "double drop", the demand for the property market will be overdrawn, and the property market will fall into the Great Depression after the madness in the second half of the year. In terms of time, a new round of real estate market adjustment is likely to come in early 20 16. At that time, if enterprises can't "plan ahead" in the second half of this year, then housing enterprises may fall into a passive push situation, and enterprises' funds will also encounter problems.
Therefore, the central bank's policy of reducing RRR and interest rate is beneficial to the "window period". For real estate enterprises, first of all, we should actively adjust the sales rhythm, control the "window period" of running volume after five interest rate cuts and four RRR, increase the proportion of sales performance of "Golden September and Silver 10" and even the last few months of the year, and prevent the market environment from changing at the end of the fourth quarter or even the beginning of 20 16, which will lead to passive sales of enterprises.
The third reason: the expectation of US dollar interest rate hike is strong, and the global asset allocation direction shifts to US dollar assets or real estate. The symbolic significance of China's cancellation of foreign investment restrictions on the domestic property market is greater than the actual significance.
The interest rate hike in the US dollar is expected to be strong. From the asset allocation direction of global investors or wealth classes, it is their best choice to buy or increase dollar assets, and the American real estate market has more investment value. In this market background, China has liberalized the restrictions on foreigners buying houses in China. The author thinks that liberalizing the restrictions on foreigners buying houses in China will not play much role in the domestic property market, and the symbolic significance of canceling domestic restrictions is greater than the practical significance. There is a simple reason. Global investors or wealth classes will choose American real estate with higher investment value instead of China real estate market when comparing the investment value of Chinese and American real estate markets. Even if you choose to invest in China's property market, you only pay attention to the middle and high-end properties in first-tier cities and a few second-tier cities, which is difficult to change the general trend of the property market.
The fourth reason: the frequent emergence of "land kings" is the embodiment of the madness of the property market. After the madness of the property market, there will inevitably be an adjustment period, and the property market will be in the cycle of the Great Depression.
Since the beginning of this year, first-tier cities in the north, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, Hefei, Nanjing, Wuhan and other cities have frequently appeared. The author believes that the high premium and "land king" phenomenon in the land market have indeed appeared under the market background of the recovery of commercial housing market turnover this year. If the market turnover just picks up this year, developers will take land crazily in the land market. If such a "land king" takes land as the norm, then the market may soon move in another direction: the market adjustment period after madness.
No matter in what form or way, the land market has appeared the phenomenon of "high premium" and "land king". The author believes that it is not a good thing for the land market to have a "high premium" and "land king" under the market background that the real estate market is still recovering. The "high premium" and "land king" in the land market are demons. If the current land market is brewing a recovery in 2009-20 10 and 20 13, it is very likely that the market will be biased, which may lead to the tightening of the property market regulation policy from the current "bailout" period and the market will fall into a downturn again.
Judging from historical experience, the same is true. Following the frequent madness of the land market in 2009-20 10 and 20 13, the property market including the land market fell into the Great Depression in 20 16 and 20 14. Judging from the performance of the land market this year, if the phenomenon of "land king" in the land market continues to appear frequently in the second half of this year, it means that the property market will fall into the adjustment period of the Great Depression in 20 16.
The fifth reason: The more frequent the "bailout" policy in the property market, the more severe the current situation in the property market, the more problems the property market will face in the future, and there will still be more market risks hidden in the future.
Since the second half of last year, although most cities canceled the purchase restriction policy, loosened the "four central policies" and introduced the "330 New Deal", local governments issued "rescue measures", the central bank cut interest rates five times and RRR four times, and various policies related to the property market came one after another. However, the effects of these policies are short-term, which does not mean that the fundamentals of the property market will continue to rise in the future, nor does it mean that the problems in the future will become more and more serious. The author believes that the more frequent the "bailout" policy in the property market, the more severe the current situation in the property market, the more problems the property market will face in the future, and there will still be more market risks hidden in the future.
The sixth reason: for most large and medium-sized cities, there is still great pressure to destock, and the fundamentals of the property market have not changed substantially. This is the basic "national condition" of the property market, and it also determines that the property market will still face the market pressure of phased adjustment in the future.
In fact, in the short term, the current property market is still in an adjustment period, and the market fundamentals have not changed significantly. "destocking" is still the main theme of the market, and this tone will not change significantly because of the rebound in transaction volume in first-tier cities and some second-tier cities; For housing enterprises, they still face great destocking pressure, and even some housing enterprises such as Zhejiang Guangsha choose to withdraw from the real estate market; In the medium and long term, the downward pressure of economic fundamentals will lead to the problem of insufficient demand power in the property market during the period of 20 15-20 16, and will face the pressure of destocking sooner or later.