So what will happen to the trend of pig prices this year? When do the highs and lows appear? Is there a trace behind the skyrocketing pig price? Xiao Zhi invited Mr. Wang Zhong, the chief consultant of Mouyi Consulting, to analyze the pig market for 23 years from the bottom logic.
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What is the difference in the fifth pig cycle?
When it comes to pig prices, we can't avoid the pig cycle. Historically, we have gone through four complete cycles, and this year we are in the process of the fifth pig cycle. Our new pig cycle is very different from the past four pig cycles.
The first is that large enterprises are relatively more rational. Now the pig industry structure has been dominated by large enterprises, which will be more rational than retail investors.
Secondly, the increase or decrease of production capacity is smaller and faster. Up to today, in the fifth pig cycle, the output of fertile sows has hardly decreased, but some retail investors have sold their piglets. The production capacity completed last year was completed in only four months last year.
The third is that the current cycle is likely to be shortened. The pig cycle, which was completed in the past four years, may be completed in 18 months, not exceeding 24 months at most, and the range will gradually decrease under the policy adjustment of Fage.
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When will the turning point come in 2023?
The most important thing to predict the market is to know which node of the pig cycle is at this moment.
You can think about it. When the price of pigs was 15 yuan in 22 years, why did anyone expect 20 yuan? If we had known in advance that 1 1 would start to plummet, or even drop by 1 yuan a day, would someone have blindly pressed it? This is because we don't know the position of the cycle, which leads to the wrong decision.
So where are the highs and lows of this cycle? Teacher Wang Zhong thinks that the high point appeared in June 5438+last year 10. As for the low point, it is almost close to the bottom now. However, because the standard pigs have been losing money for two months in a row, the productivity of sows has not decreased. In this case, it is only a bottom check, and it has not yet reached the polishing stage. When the production capacity is really reduced and the price of piglets falls below the cost line, that is the real bottom.
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What will happen to the pig price in 23 years?
First, many pig farmers made money last year, and some even made a lot of money. Under the expectation of such huge profits, more people will raise pigs or even fry pigs with emotions in 2023, so this year's pig market will never be so calm.
Second: As far as we know, fertile sows have not been detoxified at all, and they still maintain a historical high, reaching about 44 million. In fact, some retail investors can really get rid of sows, and some large enterprises will even increase their holdings. Secondly, the piglet production capacity has not gone. Now the price of 7 kilograms of piglets has reached 400 yuan, and there are still several hundred dollars in profits, so the production capacity of piglets has not gone. Finally, up to now, after the Spring Festival, there is only about 10% left in Fei Da, but there are many standard pigs. At present, there may not be many standard pigs in the hands of retail investors, and a large number of standard pigs are actually in group enterprises.
Third: Now the price of 30 kg piglets is as high as 550~600 yuan. Many people have been fattened for the second time, and the mood of pig farmers has not retreated.
To sum up, Mr. Wang Zhong believes that the current pig cycle is still in the downward period and has not yet bottomed out. Even if the price rebounds, it is not a real reversal. No matter how high the rebound is, even if it rebounds to 10, it will definitely fall. There is no doubt about it.