Overseas institutional investors continue to increase.
After four consecutive months of net selling, in July, the data of foreign institutional investors' bond purchase turned from negative to positive. China Foreign Exchange Trading Center announced that in July, foreign institutional investors * * * reached a cash transaction of10310/billion yuan, of which 5 188 billion yuan was bought, 5 123 billion yuan was sold and 6.6 billion yuan was bought.
At the end of July, overseas institutions held 3.5 1 trillion yuan of inter-bank market bonds, a decrease of about 60 billion yuan compared with the end of June.
According to industry insiders, the scale of bonds held by overseas institutions is affected by the scale of net purchase and the scale of bond redemption. At present, more than 40% of RMB bonds held by overseas institutions have a maturity of less than 1 year. If there are many bonds due in the current month, even if it is a net purchase, its holding scale may still decline.
Judging from the change of holding scale, the downward trend slowed down in July. In June, the interbank market bonds held by overseas institutions decreased by about 90 billion yuan, and in July, this value has been reduced to about 60 billion yuan. Yu, a senior analyst of Oriental Jincheng Research and Development Department, believes that the decline in the balance of liabilities held by overseas institutions is expected to gradually narrow in the future.
In July, the number of foreign institutional investors participating in the China bond market continued to increase. The data shows that eight overseas institutions entered the inter-bank bond market in that month. By the end of July, * * * overseas institutions 105 1 home.
The trend of long-term holding remains unchanged.
According to industry insiders, the marginal improvement of foreign investment in RMB bonds in July was mainly due to the sustained recovery of China's economy, the rebound of the spread between China and the United States in July and the overall stability of the RMB exchange rate.
The economic data in July showed that China's policy of coordinating epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development continued to be effective, the national economy continued to pick up and improve, and the fundamentals of long-term improvement remained unchanged.
In terms of spreads, Xie, chief macro analyst of China Merchants Securities, said that in July, the yield of US bonds fell more than that of China's bonds, which promoted the marginal recovery of spreads between China and the United States and improved the marginal capital flow in the bond market.
"After a round of rapid adjustment in the first half of the year, the RMB exchange rate remained stable as a whole in July. For overseas institutions, exchange rate risk has also weakened. " Yin Ruizhe, chief fixed income analyst of China Merchants Securities, said.
In the eyes of the industry, foreign institutional investors bought RMB bonds in July, indicating that their trend of optimistic about RMB assets has not changed fundamentally, indicating that the prospect of attracting RMB assets is still optimistic.
Wang Chunying, deputy director and spokesperson of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, said earlier that China bonds not only have diversified investment value, but also have actual capital allocation needs and more fundamental support. China's bond market accounts for about 3% of foreign investment, and China's bond market still has room for improvement. In the long run, foreign capital will steadily increase its holdings of RMB bonds.
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