Recently, Yunnan Province officially issued "Several Opinions on Supporting the High-quality Development of Kunming", proposing that by 2025, Kunming's GDP will reach 1 trillion, and the permanent population will be100000; By 2035, the total economic output will quadruple on the basis of 2020, and a regional international center city radiating South Asia and Southeast Asia will be built.
Kunming and Nanning are divided into China-South Asia Expo and China-ASEAN Expo. These two cities are both known as the "bridgehead" between China and ASEAN, and they have been secretly competing for 20 years.
What impact will the construction of Yunnan Plus Strong Province Association have on Guangxi and even the southwest region?
The dispute between Yunnan and Guangxi over the "bridgehead of ASEAN" has a period of "enmity". In 2002, with the idea of building China-ASEAN Free Trade Area put forward by the state, Yunnan and Guangxi proposed to become the frontiers of open cooperation for ASEAN.
According to the records at that time, Yunnan was the first country to hold an international exchange event to serve the economic and trade cooperation between China and ASEAN. However, in order to support the development of frontier ethnic autonomous regions, the state finally decided to hold the China-ASEAN Expo in Nanning, Guangxi.
For such a result, Yunnan has neither been discouraged nor lost confidence, but has strengthened its internal strength construction and waited for the opportunity to come. In 2009, the United States put forward the strategy of returning to the Asia-Pacific region and vigorously intervened in South China Sea affairs, which made the situation in Southeast Asia particularly complicated.
As a result, China's maritime lifeline will be quite dangerous once it is controlled by the United States.
So for a country, eggs can't be put in the same basket. At this time, Yunnan's land advantage has been particularly valued. In 2009, state leaders visited Yunnan and asked Yunnan to give full play to its advantages as an important land route to Southeast Asia and South Asia.
Since then, Yunnan's strategic position in the country has been significantly improved. 20 12 Kunming South Asia National Commodities Fair was upgraded to China-South Asia Expo, with specifications equivalent to China-ASEAN Expo.
20 15 Yunnan has been entrusted with the mission of accelerating the construction of a radiation center for South Asia and Southeast Asia. The national "One Belt, One Road" strategy has positioned Yunnan as a radiation center facing South Asia and Southeast Asia. Guangxi is positioned as an important gateway for the organic connection of the "Belt and Road".
We must know that there are many portals and hubs in the Belt and Road (such as Urumqi and Sanya), but not many of them can get the title of regional center. Moreover, the radiation range of Yunnan in South Asia is more than that of Guangxi.
In a sense, Yunnan's strategic position in the country has been higher than that of Guangxi. Behind Yunnan's status jump, it is the result of "good weather, favorable geographical position and harmonious people". In fact, Yunnan has made great contributions to the cooperation between China and ASEAN in recent years.
On the cooperation platform, Kunming South Expo has been held for only a few years, and the number of exhibitors, transaction amount and brand influence have all crushed Nanning China-ASEAN Expo; The president has been fighting for the bridgehead in ASEAN! Nanning VS Kunming, who is more likely to play? "I have done the analysis.
In terms of regional economic cooperation, in recent years, Yunnan has vigorously promoted the construction of China-Myanmar oil and gas pipeline, China-Thailand Economic Corridor and China-Laos Mo Ding Economic Cooperation Zone. What about Guangxi? I really can't find any tangible results.
From the perspective of import and export trade, the total import and export value of Guangxi's foreign trade in 2020 is 486,654.38+0.3 billion yuan, of which the total import and export value to ASEAN countries is 237.57 billion yuan. In the same period, the total import and export volume of Yunnan's foreign trade was 268 billion, and the total import and export volume to ASEAN countries was 12306438+0 billion yuan.
At first glance, Guangxi seems to be the "bridgehead" for docking ASEAN.
Careful observation shows that Vietnam accounts for 85% of the total trade volume between Guangxi and the ten ASEAN countries. It turns out that the so-called docking with ASEAN countries is actually a country in Vietnam.
Yunnan is different. The trade shares of Myanmar, Thailand, Laos and Vietnam are relatively balanced, and the trade structure is more diversified.
Judging from the number of pavilions (by the end of 2020), there are only six in Nanning, the capital of Guangxi, and eight in Kunming, the capital of Yunnan, more than Bangladesh and Maldives.
In terms of transportation infrastructure, Guangxi's slogan of "relying on the southwest and facing Southeast Asia" has been shouted for 20 years, but the border traffic is still "a mess". Pingxiang, a border city bordering Vietnam, will not be connected to the high-speed rail until 2023, and the transportation infrastructure in Beibu Gulf is still being repaired.
On the other hand, in Yunnan, the "eight provinces and five countries" channel has basically taken shape.
In recent years, Guangxi has benefited from the construction of a new land and sea passage in the west, and its import and export trade has ushered in great development. In 2020, the container of Beibu Gulf Port will exceed 5 million TEUs and rank among the top ten coastal ports.
Behind the rapid development of Beibu Gulf Port, goods from southwest areas such as Chongqing and Sichuan are shipped to the sea through Beibu Gulf Port, and finally reach Southeast Asian countries by rail, road and sea.
The premise of the prosperity of this large passage is that Guangxi is the only seaport in the west. If there is a second sea passage in the western region, the strategic position of Beibu Gulf will be greatly reduced.
In 2003, after missing the China-ASEAN Expo, an official in Yunnan said that with the construction of the Trans-Asian Railway Corridor, Guangxi's proud seaport would become a "chicken rib".
For more than ten years, Yunnan has spared no effort to build the Trans-Asian Railway Corridor. At present, the Trans-Asian Railway International Corridor has begun to take shape. The Trans-Asian Railway is divided into central line, western line and eastern line, most of which are passenger and freight lines.
Among them, China-Laos Railway will be fully opened to traffic by the end of this year, and the first phase of the China-Thailand Railway, the China-Myanmar Railway (the section in China has started) and the Myanmar section have also started surveying.
It is estimated that by 2030, the central line and the western line will all be connected. By then, Yunnan is expected to become the fastest and most convenient sea passage in the western region.
Yunnan is closer to the southwest hinterland of China, with the largest number of ASEAN countries bordering it, directly radiating the whole Indo-China Peninsula and Indian mainland.
In terms of land transportation, you can reach Laos, Thailand, Cambodia, Malaysia and Singapore in one day by taking the Trans-Asian Railway Central Line from Kunming, which is much shorter than the time by sea from Beibu Gulf now.
From the point of view of shipping, it takes about 10 days to reach Singapore from Chongqing via Beibu Gulf Port. If you leave Singapore again, it will take longer to go to the Middle East and Europe.
After the China-Myanmar Railway is fully opened to traffic, the time and distance between Yunnan and the Middle East and Europe will be at least 1000 nautical mile shorter than the current Beibu Gulf Port-India/Middle East route, saving at least half a month.
From the perspective of water transport, at present, China, Laos, Myanmar and Thailand have reached an understanding on the Lancang-Mekong River shipping development plan and promoted the construction of a "golden waterway".
The Mekong River, the second largest river in Southeast Asia, goes straight into the hinterland of Indochina Peninsula. After the completion of the second regulation project of Lancang-Mekong waterway, it will be able to sail 500-ton ships all the year round.
It will greatly reduce the cost and time for Yunnan to go to sea and open up the second largest sea passage in southwest China.
Guangxi now has the functions of sea-rail combined transport and river-sea combined transport, which can also be realized in Yunnan in the future, and Yunnan has advantages that Guangxi does not necessarily have.
In the past 30 years, the main battlefield of China's economy has been the port. In the next 30 years, this battlefield is likely to move to the airport. Ports solve the problem of bulk commodity transportation, and airports solve the problem of high value-added industries and rapid flow of talents.
Judging from overseas development experience, the seaports of new york, London and Hongkong, which are traditional international shipping centers, are declining, while the airports are growing.
Domestically, thanks to the high-speed rail hub and aviation hub, Zhengzhou's strategic position in transportation is higher than some traditional coastal port cities.
At present, the development of aviation industry in Yunnan is obviously stronger than that in Guangxi, and the number of airports in Yunnan ranks third in the country.
Among them, Kunming Changshui Airport ranks sixth in the country in passenger throughput in 2020, and the navigation points in Southeast Asia and South Asia rank first in the country, while Guangxi is a small airport except Nanning and Guilin.
Nanning Wuxu Airport, the largest airport in Guangxi, has a passenger throughput of 6.5438+005800 passengers (in 2020) and a cargo and mail throughput of 6.5438+007.110,000 tons, which is simply a drop in the bucket compared with Kunming Airport (32.99 million passengers and 420,000 tons).
Did you see that the Yunnan Trans-Asian Railway Corridor is not just as simple as three railways, but behind it is the deep construction of a large transportation system of railway+highway+inland river shipping+airport, which will directly change the regional economic map and weaken Guangxi's seaport advantage from a strategic position.
It is worth noting that in the latest national comprehensive three-dimensional transportation network planning outline, Kunming has successively obtained two heavy strategic positioning, one is an international comprehensive transportation hub city and the other is an international aviation (freight) hub, while Nanning has not obtained either.
The future dispute between Guangxi and Yunnan as "the bridgehead of ASEAN" is actually the competition between Kunming and Nanning. Judging from the current development trend, Kunming has obvious advantages.
The data shows that Kunming has gathered more than 60% high-tech enterprises, more than 70% scientific and technological innovation resources, more than 90% scientific research institutes and institutions of higher learning, and its main economic indicators are close to one third of the province.
In 2020, the GDP of Kunming will exceed 673.3 billion, 200 billion higher than that of Nanning. This time, Yunnan will once again strengthen the construction of a strong province, which will undoubtedly continue to strengthen Kunming's economic and demographic strength and increase its chips in attacking the third city in southwest China and regional megacities.
The Master Plan for the New Land-sea Passage in the West (20 19) is guaranteed until 2025. If Guangxi does not establish its own core advantages during this period, once the national policy dividend is over, it will be at a disadvantage again in the new round of regional competition.
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