As of May 2 1 day 12, the Wenchuan earthquake has caused 4 1353 deaths, 274,683 injuries and 32,666 missing.
Experts predict that the impact of the earthquake on China's economy will gradually emerge, and the economic loss will probably far exceed the loss of 1.5 1.65 billion yuan caused by the snowstorm.
According to the preliminary estimation of relevant departments, the earthquake caused losses of industrial enterprises in Sichuan to exceed 67 billion yuan, and the number of enterprises affected by the earthquake exceeded 1.4 million. The loss of private property is expected to be much greater than that of enterprises. Last week, JPMorgan Chase's research report said that the impact of the earthquake on China's economy was limited and short-lived, far less than the snowstorm that occurred at the beginning of the year.
Economist Liu Zhengshan estimated that the direct economic loss caused by the earthquake was about 525.2 billion yuan, and the economic loss caused by the snowstorm at the beginning of this year was 65.438+0.5165 billion yuan, which means that the economic loss caused by the earthquake is nearly 2.5 times that caused by the snowstorm. Fan Jianping, chief economist of the National Information Center, also said that compared with the snowstorm, the earthquake caused greater losses to people's property, and the direct economic losses were far greater than the snowstorm.
Air Universal Picture, an international catastrophe risk model company, said on the 20th that the lack of historical loss data made it more difficult to estimate the economic losses caused by the Sichuan earthquake in China. The economic loss originally estimated by aviation is 654.38+04 billion yuan, which describes the least loss among the five versions of earthquake disaster simulation.
According to the data of 2007, the population of Sichuan is 865,438+700,000, accounting for 6.2% of the total population in China. Sichuan's GDP has reached 105053 billion yuan, accounting for 4.3% of the national GDP. Fan Jianping believes that tourism-based consumption and service industries in Sichuan Province will be hit in the second quarter, which will have a negative impact on the national GDP growth rate. China Merchants Securities pointed out that 20 million people in Sichuan went to work outside the province last year, ranking first in the country. After the disaster, a large number of workers may return home to assist in reconstruction, which will affect the national labor supply.
Zhu, chief macro analyst of CITIC Securities, believes that the affected areas account for about 50% of Sichuan's GDP and 2% of the national GDP, and the earthquake may slow down China's annual GDP growth by about 0.2 percentage points. BOC International published a report, estimating that the earthquake may reduce China's GDP growth rate by 0.4 to 0.7 percentage points this year.
At present, the loss assessment of most institutions and economic circles is between 654.38+050 billion yuan and 200 billion yuan. Experts said that because the current economic losses are still in statistics, most of the specific amount has not been disclosed. However, as can be seen from the existing data, the economic stock loss caused by the Wenchuan earthquake should not be underestimated.
You have to ask the State Council later.