Open classification: society, economy, national economy, economics, gross domestic product.
catalogue
brief introduction
Gross domestic product accounting method
Determination of gross domestic product
Analysis of gross domestic product index
China GDP over the years-China GDP per capita over the years.
Gross domestic product and exchange rate:
brief introduction
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GDP is the abbreviation of English GDP, that is, gross domestic product (translated into GDP and GDP in Hongkong and Taiwan Province). Generally, GDP is defined as the total market value of all final products and services produced by a country or region's economy in a certain period (a quarter or a year). In economics, GDP and GNP are often used to measure the comprehensive level of economic development in this country or region. This is also a widely adopted measure in various countries and regions at present. GDP is the most concerned economic statistical data in macroeconomics, because it is considered as the most important indicator to measure the development of national economy. Generally speaking, GDP has three forms, namely, value form, income form and product form. From the perspective of value form, it is the difference between the value of all goods and services produced by all residential units and the value of all non-fixed assets goods and services invested in the same period, that is, the sum of the added value of all residential units; From the form of income, it is the sum of the income directly created by all resident units in a certain period; From the product form, it is the final use of goods and services minus the import of goods and services. GDP reflects the total added value of various industries in the national economy.
Gross domestic product accounting method
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First, use the expenditure method to calculate GDP.
Expenditure method is used to calculate GDP. It is based on the use of products and adds up the market value of the final products produced in one year, which is the expenditure of the final products purchased in that year. This method is also called final product method and product flow method.
If you use Q 1, Q2? ............ ……Qn represents the output of various final products, P 1, p2...pn represents the price of various final products, so the formula for accounting GDP by expenditure method is:
q 1p 1+q2p 2+……QnPn = GDP
In real life, the final uses of products and services are mainly household consumption, enterprise investment, government purchase and export. Therefore, using the expenditure method to calculate GDP is to calculate the sum of the expenditures of residents, enterprises, government procurement and exports in a certain period of time in a country or region.
Household consumption (represented by the letter C) includes expenditures on durable consumer goods such as refrigerators, color TVs, washing machines and automobiles, expenditures on non-durable consumer goods such as clothing and food, and expenditures on services such as medical care, tourism and haircuts. The expense of building a house is not consumption.
Enterprise investment (indicated by the letter I) refers to the expenditure of increasing or updating capital assets (including factory buildings, machinery and equipment, houses and inventories). Investment includes fixed assets investment and inventory investment. Investment in fixed assets refers to the investment in building new factories, purchasing new equipment and building new houses. Why does housing belong to investment rather than consumption? Because houses, like other fixed assets, are used for a long time and consume slowly. Inventory investment is the increase (or decrease) of the inventory value held by enterprises. If the national enterprise inventory is 200 billion dollars at the beginning of the year and 220 billion dollars at the end of the year, then the inventory investment is 20 billion dollars. Inventory investment may be positive or negative, because the inventory value at the end of the year may be greater or less than the inventory at the beginning of the year. Enterprise inventory is regarded as an investment because it can generate income.
The investment included in GDP refers to the total investment, that is, the sum of replacement investment and net investment, and replacement investment is depreciation.
The division between investment and consumption is not absolute, and the specific classification depends on the provisions in actual statistics.
Government procurement (represented by the letter G) refers to the expenditure of governments at all levels on purchasing goods and services, including the expenditure of the government on purchasing arms, military and police services, office supplies and office facilities of government agencies, holding public projects such as roads, and opening schools. The wages paid by the government to government employees are also purchased by the government. Government purchase is a substantial expenditure, which is manifested in the two-way flow of goods, services and money, directly forming social demand and becoming an integral part of GDP. Government purchase is only a part of government expenditure, and another part of government expenditure, such as government transfer payment and interest on public debt, is not included in GDP. Government transfer payment is the expenditure that the government does not pay for the goods and services produced this year, including the expenditure that the government uses for social welfare, social insurance, unemployment relief, poverty subsidies, old-age security, medical and health care, agricultural subsidies and so on. Government transfer payment means that the government can transfer and redistribute income among different members of society through its functions, and transfer the income of some people to the hands of other people. Its essence is the redistribution of wealth. When there is a government transfer payment, that is, when the government pays these fees, it does not get any goods and services accordingly. Government transfer payment is a monetary expenditure, and the total income of the whole society has not changed. Therefore, government transfer payments are not included in GDP.
Net export (represented by the letter X-M, X stands for export and M stands for import) refers to the difference between import and export. Imports should be deducted from the total domestic purchases, because it means that income flows abroad, and it is not the expenditure of buying domestic products; Exports should be added to the country's total purchases, because exports represent the inflow of foreign income, that is, the expenditure on buying domestic products. Therefore, net exports should be included in the total expenditure. The net export may be positive or negative.
The above four items add up to the formula for calculating GDP by expenditure method:
GDP = C + I + G +(X-M)
Second, calculate GDP by income method.
Accounting GDP by income method is to add up all kinds of income obtained by production factors from the perspective of income, that is, to add up wages obtained by labor, land rent obtained by land owners, interest obtained by capital and profits obtained by entrepreneurs to calculate GDP. This method is also called factor payment method and factor cost method.
In a simple economy without government, the added value of an enterprise is the GDP it creates, which is equal to factor income plus depreciation. However, when the government intervenes, it often collects indirect taxes, and the GDP at this time should also include indirect taxes and corporate transfer payments. Indirect tax is a tax levied on product sales, including goods tax and turnover tax. This tax is nominally levied on enterprises, but enterprises can include it in the production cost and eventually pass it on to consumers, so it should also be regarded as a cost. Similarly, there are corporate transfer payments (that is, corporate social charitable donations to non-profit organizations and bad debts of consumers), which are not the income created by production factors, but should be transferred to consumers through product prices, so they should also be regarded as costs.
Capital depreciation should also be included in GDP. Because although it is not factor income, it is included in the total input.
Also, the income of non-corporate business owners should also be included in GDP. The income of non-corporate business owners refers to the income of doctors, lawyers, shopkeepers and farmers. They use their own funds and are self-employed. Their wages, interest and rent are difficult to be divided into wages, interest on their own funds, rent on their own houses, etc. Just like the company's accounts, their wages, interest, profits and rents are often mixed together as the income of non-corporate business owners.
In this way, the formula of income method is:
GDP = salary+interest+profit+rent+indirect tax and enterprise transfer payment+depreciation.
Theoretically, GDP calculated by income method and GDP calculated by expenditure method are equal in quantity.
Third, use the production method to calculate GDP
Accounting GDP by production method refers to calculating GDP according to the output value of various departments providing material products and services. Production law is also called department law. This calculation method reflects the source of GDP.
When using this method to calculate, all production departments should deduct the output value of the intermediate products used and only calculate the added value. Business, service industry and other departments also use the value-added method to calculate. Health, education, administration, family services and other departments can not calculate its value-added, so the value of their services is calculated according to wage income.
According to the mode of production, GDP can be divided into the following sectors: agriculture, forestry and fisheries; Mining; Construction industry; Manufacturing industry; Transportation industry; Posts and telecommunications and public utilities; Electricity, gas and tap water industries; Wholesale and retail trade; Finance, insurance, real estate; Service industry; Government services and government enterprises. The GDP calculated by the production method can be obtained by adding up the GDP produced by the above departments, adding the net income of foreign factors and considering the statistical error term.
Theoretically speaking, the GDP calculated by expenditure method, income method and production method are equal in quantity, but there are often errors in actual accounting, so it is necessary to add a statistical error item to make them consistent. In actual statistics, the expenditure method of the national economic accounting system is generally adopted as the basic method, that is, the GDP calculated by the expenditure method is taken as the standard.
Four, two national income accounting systems
The above is the western national income accounting system (SNA). Based on western economic theory, this system holds that the labor activities that create material products and provide services are all value-creating production activities, and takes gross domestic product (GDP) as the core index for accounting national economic activities. Western national income accounting system is a national economic accounting method adopted by most countries at present, and it is a more reasonable and scientific accounting system. First of all, with the trend of globalization, integration, marketization and informationization in the world economy, information, knowledge, technology and labor departments are playing an increasingly important role in economic life, and the value created by the tertiary industry accounts for an increasing proportion in modern economic life, while the position of material production in the whole economic life is relatively declining. Therefore, intangible productive services should be brought into the national income accounting system, and it is necessary to bring the market value of all paid services into GDP. Secondly, it is reasonable to distinguish between nominal GDP and real GDP when calculating national income according to SNA. Of course, this system is also flawed in measuring the total output level, economic development level and living standard of the national economy with GDP. For example, non-market trading activities (such as housework and self-sufficient production) cannot be reflected, people's enjoyment and safety of leisure cannot be explained, the degree of environmental pollution in a country cannot be reflected, and there are inevitably some double counting, and so on. Before the end of the Cold War in 1990s, there was another national economic accounting system, namely, the Material Product Balance Sheet System (MPS) of the centrally planned economy countries, which was adopted by the former Soviet Union, Eastern Europe and China. This system is based on Marx's theory of reproduction, with gross social output value and national income as the basic indicators to reflect the total achievements of national economic activities. This accounting system has adapted to the highly centralized planning management system and played an important role, but with the reform and development of the global market economy system, its defects have become increasingly prominent. For example, it can not reflect the development of intangible production departments such as information and labor services, which is not conducive to reflecting comprehensive national strength and rationally adjusting industrial structure; Can not systematically reflect the movement of social funds, which is not conducive to national macro-management and regulation; It can't reflect the whole picture of the national economic cycle and the links between each link, which is not conducive to the country to grasp the comprehensive balance of the whole economic operation. Therefore, Eastern Europe, Russian and other countries with economies in transition and China gradually adopted the western national economic accounting system. Since 1985, China has officially adopted GDP index as the main index to assess the development of national economy and formulate the strategic objectives of economic development. At present, China has calculated and published the figures of GDP, but has not yet calculated and published the figures of GDP, national income, personal income and disposable personal income.
Determination of gross domestic product
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The calculation of GDP data published by the National Bureau of Statistics every year needs to go through the following processes: preliminary estimation, preliminary verification and final verification. The preliminary estimation process is generally carried out at the end of each year and the beginning of the following year. The annual GDP data it gets is only a preliminary figure, which needs to be verified after obtaining more sufficient information. The preliminary verification procedure is generally carried out in the second quarter of the following year. The GDP data obtained by preliminary verification is relatively accurate, but GDP accounting still needs a lot of important data, and the corresponding data needs further verification. The final verification process is generally carried out in the fourth quarter of the second year. At this time, all kinds of statistical data, final accounting data and administrative data needed and collected for GDP accounting are basically available. Compared with the previous step, it uses more comprehensive and detailed data, so this GDP data is more accurate.
In addition, GDP data also needs to go through a historical data adjustment process, that is, when new data sources, new classifications, more accurate accounting methods or more reasonable accounting principles are discovered or produced, historical data should be adjusted to make GDP comparable every year, which is an international practice. For example, the United States adjusted the historical data of 1 1 between 1929 and 1999.
In short, the GDP published in each time period has its specific meaning and specific value, so we can't doubt that there is something wrong with the statistical data just because the data published in different time periods are different. Of course, China's GDP calculation system also has some shortcomings. For example, the statistical accounting system originally adopted by China in the former Soviet Union and Eastern European countries has lagged behind the development of the times in many places.
note:
1, a certain period emphasizes the "new" increase in the final products and services provided in that year, excluding the increase in previous years. For example, used cars and second-hand houses are not counted as GDP this year.
2. Intermediate products can be regarded as raw material products, which are used to produce final products, that is, after being produced in this year, they will continue to be processed and produced in that year; If it is directly sold at freight price, purchased by consumers and directly used, it is another matter, belonging to a special case and included in the total value, otherwise it cannot be included.
3, this is a concept of flow, not the concept of stock, not the total amount released this year since the founding of the People's Republic of China, which is wrong, it only refers to the new things produced in this period.
4. Market value refers to the total amount of money calculated in terms of money. Because there are too many kinds of goods, tons, parts, parts, Taiwan and other units can't be added up, so the monetary units of the year are used to count and add up. The so-called monetary unit of the year refers to the prices of these commodities this year.
Analysis of gross domestic product index
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The substantial growth of a country's GDP reflects the vigorous development of the country's economy, the increase of national income and the improvement of consumption power. In this case, the central bank may raise interest rates and tighten the money supply. The good performance of the national economy and the rise in interest rates will increase the attractiveness of the country's currency. On the other hand, if a country's GDP shows negative growth, it means that the country's economy is in recession and its consumption capacity is reduced. At this time, the central bank may cut interest rates again to stimulate economic growth. Falling interest rates and sluggish economic performance will reduce the attractiveness of the country's currency. Therefore, generally speaking, high economic growth rate will promote the rise of the country's currency exchange rate, while low economic growth rate will cause the decline of the country's currency exchange rate. For example, during the period of 1995- 1999, the average annual GDP growth rate of the United States was 4. 1%, while the GDP growth rates of major countries such as France, Germany and Italy were only 2.2% and 1, except Ireland (9.0%). This has prompted the euro to fall against the US dollar since it was launched in June 1 999+1October1,with a depreciation of 30% in less than two years. But in fact, the difference of economic growth rate has many effects on exchange rate changes:
First of all, a country's high economic growth rate means an increase in income and domestic demand, which will increase the country's imports and lead to a current account deficit, which will lead to a decline in its currency exchange rate.
Second, if the country's economy is export-oriented, economic growth is to produce more export products, and the growth of exports will make up for the increase in imports and ease the downward pressure on the exchange rate of its currency.
Third, a country's high economic growth rate means a rapid increase in labor productivity and a reduction in costs, thus improving the competitive position of domestic products, helping to increase exports and curb imports; And the high economic growth rate makes the country's currency optimistic in the foreign exchange market, so the country's currency exchange rate will have an upward trend.
In the United States, the Ministry of Commerce is responsible for the analysis and statistics of GDP, which is usually estimated and counted once every quarter. After each preliminary estimate is published, there will be two revisions (the first revision &; The final revision), mainly published in the third week of each month. Gross domestic product (GDP) is usually used for comparison with the same period last year. If it increases, it means that the economy is faster, which is conducive to the appreciation of its currency. If it is reduced, it means that the economy is slowing down and its currency is facing depreciation pressure. In the United States, GDP growth of 3% is an ideal level, indicating that economic development is healthy, and higher than this level indicates inflationary pressure; Growth below 1.5% indicates signs of economic slowdown and gradual recession.
China GDP over the years-China GDP per capita over the years.
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( 1978~2007)
Domestic per capita domestic
Annual gross domestic product
(100 million yuan) (yuan/person)
1978 3645.2 38 1
1979 4062.6 4 19
1980 4545.6 463
198 1 489 1.6 492
1982 5323.4 528
1983 5962.7 583
1984 7208. 1 695
1985 90 16.0 858
1986 10275.2 963
1987 12058.6 1 1 12
1988 15042.8 1366
1989 16992.3 15 19
1990 18667.8 1644
199 1 2 178 1.5 1893
1992 26923.5 23 1 1
1993 35333.9 2998
1994 48 197.9 4044
1995 60793.7 5046
1996 7 1 176.6 5846
1997 78973.0 6420
1998 84402.3 6796
1999 89677. 1 7 159
2000 992 14.6 7858
200 1 109655.2 8622
2002 120332.7 9398
2003 135822.8 10542
2004 159878.3 12336
2005 183084.8 14040
2006 209407.0 1593 1
2007 2466 19.0 18268
Note: Per capita GDP reflects the wealth of a country's people.
The total GDP reflects a country's economic strength and market size.
World GDP and ranking over the years
1970 GDP ranking of countries (regions) in the world (except the Soviet Union, according to the current exchange rate)
0 1- USA-102.55 million USD.
02- Japan-206.8 billion US dollars.
03- West Germany-203.7 billion US dollars.
04- France -6543.8+047 billion US dollars.
05- UK-123.6 billion USD.
06- Italy-US$ 6,543.8+007.7 billion.
07- Canada -85 1 billion dollars.
08- Australia-$42.9 billion
09- Mexico-39.6 billion dollars.
10- Spain-$39 billion.
1 1- Sweden-$35.7 billion.
12- Netherlands -35 1 billion USD.
13- China-$27.2 billion ★★★★★
1980 GDP ranking of countries (regions) in the world (except the Soviet Union, according to the current exchange rate)
01-2,795.6 billion USD
02- Japan-1.0279 billion USD.
03- West Germany -826 1 100 million USD.
04- France-$682.4 billion
05- UK-US$ 536.7 billion.
06- Italy-US$ 454.6 billion.
07- China-3065438+US$ 500 million ★★★★★
08- Canada-$268.9 billion
09- Spain-22654.38+USD 80 million.
10- Argentina-$209 billion.
1990 GDP ranking of countries (regions) in the world (except the Soviet Union, according to the current exchange rate)
01-580.33 billion USD
02- Japan-305.22 billion US dollars.
03- Germany-1.547 billion USD.
04- France-1, 219.8 billion USD.
05- Italy-1,104.5 billion USD.
06- UK-994.6 billion US dollars
07- Canada-$582.7 billion
08- Spain-5110.50 billion USD.
In 2009-Brazil-US$ 465 billion.
10- China-USD 387.8 billion ★★★★★
1995 GDP ranking of countries (regions) in the world (at current exchange rate)
01-7400.5 billion USD
02- Japan-US$ 529.29 billion.
03- Germany -2465438 USD+06.6 billion.
04- France-1.5257 billion USD.
05- UK-110.32 million USD.
06- Italy-1, 066 1 billion dollars.
07- China-700.6 billion US dollars ★★★★★
08- Brazil-US$ 675.6 billion.
09- Canada-$576 billion
10- Spain-$570.9 billion.
GDP ranking of countries (regions) in the world in 2000 (at the current exchange rate)
0 1-98247 billion dollars.
02- Japan -4766 1 100 million USD.
03- Germany-1.8752 billion USD.
04- UK-1.4409 billion USD.
05- France-1, 313.3 billion USD.
06- China-1.0808 billion USD ★★★★★
07- Italy-107.76 million USD.
09- Canada-$724.2 billion
08- Brazil-US$ 599.8 billion.
10- Mexico-581400 million USD.
Reference: Gross Domestic Product of all economies in the world in 2005 (USD, current price)
$65,438+$024,550.67 billion
Japan's $4,663.822 billion
Germany 2730190,000 USD
China's $2,228.862 billion ★★★★
2,227.55 billion pounds
France 1972724 million USD.
Italy's170,966.8 billion USD.
Canada 1034532 million USD
Spain10190.24 million USD.
India 7198438+0.9 billion USD.
South Korea 7142438+0.9 billion US dollars
Mexico 692.9 1 100 million USD
Russia 67181500 million USD.
Brazil $587.784 billion
Netherlands 58131800 million USD.
Swiss $366.986 billion
Belgium $350.326 billion
Turkey's $363.299 billion
Sweden $35,465,438 +0.65438+500 million.
China Taiwan Province Province, 345.928 billion US dollars.
Saudi Arabia 309.778 billion US dollars
Austria $304.526 billion
Poland $29.965438 billion+$50 million
Indonesia's $287.265438+0.6 billion.
Norway $283.92 billion
Denmark 254.400 billion US dollars
South Africa 240 1.5 1 billion USD.
Greece's $265,438+036.97 million.
Ireland 196387 billion USD
Iran's 196342 million USD.
Finland19365438+75 million USD.
Argentina $65.438+083.309 billion
China and Hongkong 1777.38+0 billion USD.
Thailand's $6,543.8+$076.602 billion.
Portugal 65.438+073.085 billion US dollars
Venezuela $65.438+038.856 billion
Reference: GDP of all economies in the world in 2006
National GDP ranking in 2006
Usa14,979, 169
2 Japan 5083367
3 Germany 28 12558
4 China 2,587,999 ★★★★★
5 UK 2292 149
6 France 2 108307
7 Italy 1.728474
8 Spain 1.069499
9 Canada 1.057 29 1
10 India
World GDP ranking in 2007
According to the latest forecast of the 2007 World Yearbook!
Ranked country's GDP (US$ 100 million) Per capita GDP (US$)
1 USA 139800 46280
2 Japan 52900 4 1480
3 Germany 32800 397 10
4 China 30 100 2280★★★★
5 UK 25700 42430
6 France 25200 4 1200
Italy 20900 35980
8 Spain 14 100 30820
9 Canada 13600 4 1470
Russia 10
1 1 Korea 9920240
Brazil 9340 4930
India 9280 830
14 Mexico 8850 8 140
Netherlands 7560 45880
Australia 7460 3590
Belgium 4470 430 10
Sweden 4470 48950
Switzerland 43 10 57040
20 China Taiwan Province Province 3980 17520
2 1 Indonesia 3960 1590
Turkey 3860 5 130
Norway 3760 80960
Poland 3750 9840
Austria 37 10 37800
Saudi Arabia 3690 14250
27 Denmark
28 Greece
29 South Africa
30 Iran
3 1 Ireland 2480 58020
32 Finland
33 Argentina
34 Thailand
35 Portugal 2 190 20620
China Hongkong 2050 29350
37 Venezuela 2020 7360
38 Czech Republic 1690 16560
Malaysia 1620 5950
40 Chile 1570 9450
Israel 1500 20880
42 Singapore 14 10 32030
Romania 1370 6340
44 Nigeria 1350 926
45 Pakistan 1280 790
Hungary 1270 12740
47 Colombia 1270 27 10
Philippines 1260 1380
49 Egypt 1 160
50 Algeria 1050 3090
Ukraine 1020 2200
52 New Zealand 1020 24420
53 Kazakhstan
54 Vietnam
Slovakia 650 1 1850
Croatia 500 1 1050
Slovenia 420 2 1260
58 Bulgaria
Iraq 360 1 190
Lithuania 350 10250
6 1 Lebanon
Latvia 230 1 10 10
Kenya
Estonia 190 14 120
65 Jordan 150 2480
66 Uzbekistan 140 530
(As of 2008 1 quarter, China's GDP has surpassed German, ranking third in the world.
Some German critics believe that China's GDP is conservatively estimated at 10% to 20%. In fact, China became the third largest GDP in the world at the end of 2007).
Note: GDP ranking is for reference only.
Gross domestic product and exchange rate:
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1970, Japan's GDP was $206.8 billion; 1980 is1027.9 billion USD; 1990 was $3,022.2 billion; In 2000, it was $476 1 billion. In 2005, it was $4,663.8 billion. At first glance, I can't help feeling strange. During the 30 years from 1970 to 2000, Japan's GDP actually increased by 23 times, almost 80% every year. 200 1 By 2005, although Japan got on the China Economic Express and its economy grew by 2% every year, the absolute value of Japan's GDP actually decreased by 1000 billion US dollars in dollar terms.
What's going on here? It turns out that all this is caused by the exchange rate. 1995 The highest value of the Japanese yen against the US dollar reached 78: 1. Later, with the bursting of Japan's economic bubble, the yen gradually fell back to115-118:1and began to stabilize. So the strange phenomenon at the beginning of the article appeared.
I have a whim, and I also want to use this phenomenon of Japanese economy to predict the trend of China's GDP in the next five years. The following is the RMB data of China's GDP from 2000 to 2006.
Annual RMB GDP (trillion) US dollar GDP (trillion) world ranking
2000 992 15 1,0808 6
200 1 109655 1, 1590 6
2002 120333 1,237 1 6
2003 135823 1,3720 7
2004 159878 16 149 6
2005 183868 20546 5
2006 209407 26847 4
(Source: Global Times Economic Edition June 26, 2007 +65438)
It is predicted that by next year, China will surpass German and rank third in the world.
So when will China surpass Japan and become the second place in the world?
If by 20 15, China's economic growth rate will increase at an annual rate of 8%, and the RMB will appreciate at an annual rate of 4% against the US dollar. How will China's GDP evolve at this time?
Annual RMB GDP (trillion) US dollar GDP (trillion) world ranking
2007 226 160 30 154 3
2008 244252 33923 3
2009 263792 38230 3
20 10 284895 43035 3
20 1 1 307686 48370 3
20 12 332300 54475 2
20 13 359884 6 14 13 2
20 14 388674 69036 2
20 15 4 19767 77735 2
As can be seen from the above table, by 20 15, China's GDP will surpass that of Japan, ranking second in the world by 20 12 at the latest. By 20 15, it can reach nearly 8 trillion dollars. If measured by the parity coefficient at that time, it is expected to reach 10 trillion US dollars, which is close to the economic aggregate of the United States. (The World Bank believes that the parity exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar is 2: 1)
But if the absolute value is divided by the population, even if the GDP reaches 10 trillion dollars, the per capita income is only about 7,000 dollars. There is still a long way to go, and it is estimated that the per capita world ranking is still 50! Compared with most European countries, Northeast Asian countries, oil-producing countries in the Middle East and richer countries in Latin America, it is still far behind. However, there is one consolation. Taiwan Province Province can no longer be opinionated about us. As soon as the mainland blows, it will lean aside, and the hope of peaceful reunification will undoubtedly increase greatly.