If we sum up the above changes in the world economy, it seems that there are two major trends in the future economy: first, knowledge economy, in which knowledge and information become the most active and important factors in economic development; The other is economic globalization, which is manifested in the accelerated global flow of goods, services, capital, technology and talents. These two trends are interrelated and influence each other. It can also be said that the new economy will be an era based on knowledge and technological innovation and taking the world as the market. It will promote profound changes in the growth mode, industrial composition, economic system, social structure, education system and cultural orientation of all countries, and will also put forward new topics for domestic and foreign policies of all countries.
Third, the general trend of economic globalization and its duality. The origin of economic globalization seems to be traced back to the establishment of the Bretton Woods system in the late World War II. The establishment and development of the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund and GATT have greatly promoted global financial, trade and investment activities. The connection between the dollar and gold makes the dollar a means of international circulation and reserve, which is conducive to the expansion of American enterprises to the world at first. However, the division of the two world markets during the Cold War limited economic globalization to some extent. After the end of the cold war, economic globalization has further developed. There are two main forces: one is the information technology revolution and the growth of high technology, which greatly promotes the global exchange of goods, services, capital, talents and technology. Another force is that the vast number of developing countries, socialist countries and countries in transition have joined the ranks of market economy, providing a broader space for the world market. However, it should also be noted that due to the irrationality of the international political and economic order, especially the trade and financial policies pursued by the superpowers in economic globalization, the East Asian financial crisis that broke out in 1997 quickly evolved into global financial turmoil and polarization between the North and the South, which fully demonstrated the duality of economic globalization.
The main manifestations of economic globalization are: first, the internationalization of production led by multinational companies is moving towards the globalization of the allocation of production factors.
After the war, the United States dominated the capitalist world. American big companies seize the opportunity of post-war reconstruction in Europe and Asia and expand overseas. Large companies in automobile, petroleum, chemical and other industries take the lead in transnational production and win the world market. After the economic recovery in Europe and Japan, their big companies also made overseas investments. Multinational companies have become the leading force in the internationalization of production. At that time, the internationalization of production was mainly carried out among developed countries, because the political situation there was relatively stable, the market was vast, the infrastructure was relatively perfect, and the soft environment for investment was relatively sound. In 1970s, the internationalization of production extended to developing countries. In 1990s, multinational corporations developed the internationalization of production into the globalization of the allocation of production factors. This feature is manifested in three aspects: on the one hand, multinational companies launch large-scale enterprise restructuring and mergers and acquisitions, pay attention to the use of global markets, resources, technology and talents, and focus on controlling overseas markets of high-tech industries and high value-added services. Since 1997, Boeing merged with McDonnell Douglas to monopolize the American aviation industry, and the merger and acquisition frenzy of multinational corporations swept the electronics, telecommunications, aviation, finance and other industries. The agreed amount in 1997 for the merger of American enterprises is 7 times that of 199 1. 1998 Germany's Mercedes-Benz merged with Chrysler to form the world's largest automobile group; From 65438 to 0999, dai-ichi kangyo bank, the Big Three Bank of Japan, and Fuji Bank, the Industrial Bank of Japan, formed the largest financial group in the world. These indicate that the global reorganization of multinational corporations is in the ascendant. The second aspect is that the overseas investment of multinational companies has gradually shifted from developed countries to developing countries. On the one hand, the market in developed countries is relatively saturated, on the other hand, the improvement of investment environment in developing countries provides opportunities for multinational companies in developed countries to obtain rich profits. The third aspect is that a number of large enterprises in developing countries have begun to go abroad to produce and sell overseas. Among the global top 500 enterprises published by American Fortune magazine at the end of the century, some companies from developing countries are rising, which reflects that developing countries are striving to become new stars of production globalization.
Second, the internationalization of circulation promoted by developed countries is moving towards trade liberalization and regional collectivization.
The internationalization of production in developed countries after the war promoted the internationalization of circulation. The expansion of the international market and the internationalization of circulation have in turn become more and more important factors to promote the economic growth of developed countries. According to statistics, the growth rate of global trade is higher than that of global economy. During the forty-five years from 1950 to 1994, the global GDP growth rate was 4% and the global trade growth rate was 6%. This shows that the goods and services produced in the world are increasingly dependent on international market exchange to realize their value. 1970 The storage of American economy in the international market was 1 1%, and it rose to 25% in 1997. Among them, high-tech products are more dependent on the international market. According to the statistics of the World Bank, 1970 was 25.9%, and 1993 reached 37.3%. In other words, more than one-third of high-tech products in the United States rely on overseas sales. So are other developed countries.
The economy of developed countries is increasingly dependent on the international market, resulting in two trends: one is to seek mutual tariff reduction and promote trade liberalization. Since the establishment of 1947 GATT, after four rounds of negotiations, the average tariff rate of developed countries has dropped from about 40% to below 5%, and that of developing countries has dropped to 12%. After the establishment of the World Trade Organization, developed countries are launching a new round of multilateral trade negotiations to serve the global free expansion of their high-tech products and high value-added services. However, on the issue of trade liberalization, developed countries practice double standards. They restrict the import of foreign goods through various measures, mainly non-tariff barriers and unilateral measures, and also discriminate or sanction under some political excuses. The victims are mainly developing countries and socialist countries. Therefore, trade liberalization and protectionism are the twin brothers of developed countries' trade policies. Another trend is the collectivization of economic and trade regions. In the early 1950s, in order to cope with the Soviet Union and the United States and adapt to the trend of trade liberalization, small and medium-sized countries in Western Europe started with coal and steel joint ventures and established the European Union. Europe implements a customs union, and free trade among member countries has opened up a broad regional market for member countries. At the same time, in order to narrow the economic imbalance among member countries, we should implement agricultural policies, regional policies and structural policies to help economically backward countries and regions promote common development. In the 1990s, on the one hand, the United States, the European Union and Japan continued to sing about trade liberalization; On the other hand, we have painstakingly created a self-centered regional economic group, including the northern and southern countries in the region. Trade liberalization and regional collectivization seem contradictory, but in fact they complement each other. Trade liberalization cannot eliminate trade protectionism and double standards in developed countries, nor can regional collectivization reverse the trend of trade liberalization.
Third, the global financial market networking and the internationalization of national currencies form financial market integration. The separation of virtual economy and real economy facilitates international financing and increases global financial risks.
International finance is the nerve center of international economic activities. After the war, international finance was based on the dollar gold standard, and the currencies of various countries were linked to the dollar. At that time, the stability of international exchange rate played a positive role in promoting international trade and investment activities after the war.
However, after 1970s, international financial activities gradually separated from service trade and investment and became independent activities. The reasons for this situation are as follows: 1973 dollars is decoupled from gold, forming an international currency floating exchange rate system; Social wealth accumulated by developed countries for many years, and trillions of huge funds appear in the international financial market; Economic globalization promotes the convertibility and abstraction of currencies in different countries; The information revolution connects the financial markets of various countries into a network. Therefore, the main task of international financial activities is no longer to facilitate international transactions and investments, but to find ways to increase the value of huge international hot money. According to analysis, the daily trading volume of the global foreign exchange market is as high as $65,438 +0.5 trillion, and only 2% is used for normal trade and investment.
The global integration of financial markets and the existence of huge international financial capital have facilitated the raising of international funds, but also facilitated international financial speculation. Financial security has become the primary issue of national economic security, especially for developing countries.
Financial turmoil is an important reason for the unbalanced economic development of various countries. Exchange rate war is an important means of economic contest between developed countries. Japan once became a financial power from the war of ignorance, and fell into a long-term depression from the bursting of the bubble economy.
Globally, the biggest victims of international financial turmoil and international financial speculation are developing countries. The reasons are simple: first, the financial institutions and mechanisms in developing countries are not perfect; Second, the financial strength is weak, and they are often foreign debt slaves. Once the international financial market changes suddenly, developed countries will try their best to pass on the bad consequences to developing countries. In the global financial storm of 1997- 1998, East Asia, Latin America and Africa were all hit hard. The World Economic Outlook published by the World Bank said, "In developing countries, the per capita output of at least 36 countries in the world will show negative growth from 65,438+0,998 ... The total output of developing countries will drop from 65,438+0,998 to 65,438+0,999, which will be/kloc-0.
Fourth, the world economic growth centers are diversified.
In the early postwar period, the two growth centers of the world economy were the United States and the Soviet Union. Their performance and economic policies determine the trend of world economic changes. In 1990s, the Soviet Union ceased to exist. Russia has fallen into a deep economic disaster because of adopting "shock therapy" in economic transformation, and it is difficult to see how much impact it will have on the world economy in the short term. However, Russia's resources, talents and scientific and technological potential still exist, and it will still become a center of the world economy in this century. Although the United States still ranks first in the world economy, its dominance in the capitalist world market has been replaced by the United States, Europe and Japan. Although the relative share of the United States may fluctuate for a short time, it has become a trend. At the same time, the share of developing countries in the world economy is rising. At the end of last century, China was the seventh largest economy in the world, and Brazil was the eighth largest economy. The status of economic groups composed of developing countries such as ASEAN and South China is also rising. In this century, more developing countries such as India, Pakistan, Indonesia, Nigeria, South Africa, Mexico and Argentina will become the stars of the world or regional economy. South-South cooperation and North-South cooperation will see new development. The diversification of economic growth centers will provide greater impetus and broader growth space for world economic development. At the same time, it may also cause new economic contradictions and economic variables.
To sum up, by the end of last century, economic knowledge and economic globalization had merged into an irreversible trend. Its irreversibility is the result of the joint promotion of post-war scientific and technological development, economic development and political development. First of all, the post-war scientific and technological development has not only made general scientific and technological progress, but also made a qualitative breakthrough. With the deepening and differentiation of scientific research, the intersection and synthesis of disciplines have emerged, which has made human understanding of the micro-world and the macro-world reach a new height. In the past, technological innovation was basically limited to strengthening or replacing human physical labor, but now technological innovation has broadened the ways to improve or replace human mental labor. The process of transforming scientific and technological achievements into productive forces has been greatly accelerated. The development of high technology needs cooperation beyond national boundaries, and high-tech industries need a broad market beyond national boundaries. Secondly, from the economic field, it is not only multinational companies and governments of developed countries that promote the global expansion of market economy, but more importantly, developing countries, which account for nearly three-quarters of the world's population, are getting rid of agricultural economy and becoming the new force of market economy. Socialist countries and countries in transition have also abandoned planned economy and developed market economy. Politically, after World War II, although there were many local wars, it did not lead to a new world war. After the end of the Cold War, although the international political situation has eased and the world is not peaceful, the overall trend has eased, and most countries have given priority to economic revitalization. All these provide conditions for the market economy to expand to the whole world relatively smoothly.
History shows that economic globalization has the duality of promoting economic interdependence and deepening economic competition among countries. Due to the deepening economic interdependence, it is possible for developed countries, developed countries and developing countries to learn from each other's strengths, strengthen coordination and cooperation on the basis of equality and mutual benefit, and achieve common development. The post-war development of western European countries provides an example for this. Germany and France used to be feuds for a hundred years, but after the war, they became coordination partners, promoted the union of western European countries, and had relatively equal's mutual assistance relationship with the former colonies. In this way, European countries achieved economic revitalization through peaceful development rather than military expansion after the war. By the end of last century, the economic strength of the European Union was comparable to that of the United States, and its international political status would be improved accordingly.
However, the market economy is a competitive economy, and economic globalization has also intensified economic competition among countries. This may lead to unbalanced economic development among countries, which may not only lead to economic and political turmoil, but also lead to war. NATO's war of aggression against Yugoslavia can also be regarded as the result of unbalanced international economic development and the expansion of hegemonic ambitions. Weson112008-12-16: 08: 06 is definitely not optimistic. Nnnvvvcc 2010-01-0612: 28: 59 analyzes the positive impact of modern information technology on urban development, such as urban planning, urban industrial structure, urban spatial layout structure, urban functions, urban transportation, urban architecture, urban management, urban residents' lifestyle, etc.
The great progress of technology will often bring great influence to the development of cities. The invention of the steam engine led to the initial industrial revolution and urbanization development; The popularity of automobiles has led to the suburbanization of cities. Modern information technology represented by computer and its network technology and modern communication technology is the leading field of contemporary scientific and technological development. Modern information technology is developing at a speed unprecedented by any other technology, involving all aspects of society with a depth and breadth unprecedented by any other technology. "No matter how short the memorabilia in the 20th century, especially since World War II, we will never ignore the great progress of information technology and its extensive economic and social impact." So, what impact does modern information technology have on the development of cities?
First, the positive impact of modern information technology on urban development
Nowadays, the world is marching towards the information age, and information has become the "blood" and "lubricant" of social and economic development. Modern information technology has widely infiltrated and changed people's life, study and work; The information industry is gradually becoming the largest industry in the world. Under the impact of this information wave sweeping the world, many aspects of urban development, such as urban planning, urban construction, urban management, and traditional forms and functions of cities, are also strongly influenced by modern information technology, and cities are facing new development opportunities.
1 improves the efficiency and scientificity of urban planning. Is urban planning the foundation of urban construction? What is the salary? The stool ┏ sheath is leaking. Dangerous? What happened to scabbard crab? What's the matter with you? ⒓⒓ ⒓ ⒓ ⒓ ⒓ ⒓ ⒓ ⒓ ⒓ ⒓ ⒓ ⒓ ⒓ ⒓ ⒓? What is your guide? Does aluminum leak along the sheath? What's the danger? What are you talking about? Cough bamu voted? Is the room dirty? How about the product paddle fumupu? [14] Is there pain in the bath tent hospital? (3) Auntie is worried about being harsh? Why not brag about a scabbard? What's the matter with you? Why are you stupid? "Smart city" is different from the reorganization of urban spatial structure in any previous era. It should be based on the theory and methodology of geo-information science, human settlements science and regional sustainable development, and embody the idea of urban planning: 1 ideal, rationality, comprehensive whole, system, dynamics and ecology; 2. Pay attention to the multi-level human settlement environment with the region as the main body; 3 methods of decision support.
Great changes have taken place in the industrial structure of this city. This is mainly reflected in three aspects: 1 a large number of emerging industries have been produced on the basis of modern information technology; 2. Modern information technology has transformed traditional industries, which has obvious traces of informationization, thus obtaining a new way out; The vigorous development of service industry shows the trend of replacing manufacturing industry in national economy. In short, the urban industrial structure began to change from the traditional industrial economic model to the emerging information economic model. In addition, corresponding to the transformation of urban industrial structure, urban employment presents the characteristics of "softening", that is to say, the proportion of people engaged in "soft occupations" such as management, research, technology development, consulting services and education has increased.
3. The urban spatial layout structure has changed from agglomeration to both agglomeration and dispersion. /kloc-the industrial revolution that broke out in the 0/8th century concentrated capital and population in cities, and started the process of modern urbanization. The development of cities is mainly manifested in the centralized trend based on economies of scale and manufacturing agglomeration and conditioned by the progress of transportation technology. However, with the development of modern information technology, information network will break the time and space restrictions of urban residents' work, education, life, shopping, medical care and entertainment, and people's dependence on offices, schools, shopping centers, hospitals and transportation will be greatly weakened. The dependence of some industrial production on resources and the highly concentrated production scale have also decreased, weakening the motivation of agglomeration. This greatly broadens the activity space of the city, extends the geographical distribution of various functions of the city, and the spatial layout structure of the city also shows a trend of diffusion. Under the general trend of diffusion, cities also have a certain degree of agglomeration. Modern society is becoming more and more complex, which requires higher quality coordination and cooperation, which requires the various functions of the city to be in the middle.
The heart area is reunited. Modern information technology enables urban development to choose its scale and spatial layout structure more freely according to its own needs. The diffusion trend will lead to the dispersion of industries and population in cities, especially megacities and big cities, and make some of their industrial functions move outward, and some new urban agglomerations in industrial production areas will appear on the periphery of cities, so that the functional structure of cities will be purified and the spatial division will be clearer; The trend of agglomeration promotes the further development and prosperity of the central area, and the function of the city center is more powerful.
The functions of information centers in cities, especially in big cities and megacities, are increasingly strengthened. On the one hand, the emergence of modern information technology provides advanced technical conditions for information processing and facilitates people to use information in an orderly manner; On the other hand, the emergence of modern information technology has accelerated the generation and transmission of information. A city is the center of regional social and economic activities, with superior transportation, communication, scientific and technological strength and the service level of mass media, and convenient information exchange, which provides good objective conditions for the development of information industry. At the same time, the strengthening of the status of the city center also requires the accelerated development of the information industry. As a new knowledge-intensive industry, information industry is bound to rise in cities first. Today, with the rise of the new technological revolution, the city is not only a distribution center for people and logistics, but also a place to create, obtain and disseminate information. Information is a kind of resource and wealth. Information development, service level and information industry development level have become important symbols of urban social and economic development level. With the continuous development of information networking, information service socialization, information industry industrialization and information market modernization, our city has the best environment for developing information industry. Cities at all levels will gradually become information circulation management and service centers in different regions, especially in big cities and megacities. In a word, corresponding to the development process of human society from agricultural society to industrial society to information society, the history of urban development will also undergo the evolution process from political center to economic center to cultural information center.
It is possible to solve the urban traffic problem. Urban traffic problem is one of the unbalanced phenomena in the process of urban growth and development. The traditional ways to solve traffic congestion and congestion are to develop mass transit system, limit the development of private cars and increase the density of road network. , but they are just scratching their boots and scratching their itch, and "treating the symptoms rather than curing the root cause". With the development of modern information technology, it is possible to fundamentally solve this problem. First of all, urban traffic problems arise from the imbalance between the increasing traffic volume and the lagging traffic facilities. Because modern information technology has enabled human beings to transcend the limitations of time and space and changed the way people communicate with the outside world, the number of trips and times in cities has decreased, and the total traffic volume in cities will inevitably decline. Secondly, modern information technology will greatly improve the service level of existing transportation facilities. Through the establishment of ITS, the information transmission and exchange of the system of "information inside people and vehicles-visible environmental information outside vehicles-invisible environmental information outside vehicles" can be solved, and the urban traffic flow can be coordinated and controlled comprehensively and dynamically, so as to realize the high efficiency of urban traffic. Based on the above two points-the reduction of traffic volume and the improvement of the service level of traffic facilities, supplemented by the guiding traffic policy, the urban traffic environment will be greatly improved and the traffic service will be efficient and fast.
6. Make urban buildings intelligent. The combination of modern information technology and modern architectural technology endows modern architecture with brand-new concepts and more functions. The first intelligent building in the world was built in Hartford, Connecticut, USA in 1984, and now the intelligent building has become a symbol of urban modernization. Generally speaking, intelligent buildings have the functions of office automation, building automation, communication automation, fire control automation, security monitoring automation and so on.
7 urban management and monitoring means are more developed. As we know, a city is a complex system of society, economy and nature, and urban management is a comprehensive management with many aspects, variables, levels and objectives. Traditional management methods have become increasingly unsuitable for the more complex and changeable urban development trend. Modern information technology can provide all kinds of background information very quickly, reduce the information distortion caused by backward communication means, simple mode and wrong postal route, and make decision-making more scientific, meticulous and timely. Urban management and monitoring means will be more advanced and developed. With the help of computer network, urban construction and management can truly get rid of "rule by man" and embark on the track of "rule by law".
It has influenced the life style of urban residents in all aspects. Modern information technology not only affects the tangible aspects of the city, but also has no influence on the city.
Shape also has an impact. Information network makes "telecommuting", "distance teaching", "online shopping, medical care and entertainment" become a part of people's daily life, and strengthens the information exchange between people, promotes the diversity and difference of culture, and people can express their wishes to the society more conveniently. The management society that participates in public affairs will further move towards openness and democratization.
Second, the negative impact of modern information technology on urban development
The development of science and technology is like a double-edged sword. On the one hand, it brings light to the future of mankind and makes people look forward to the future. On the other hand, it also casts a shadow over the future of mankind, which makes people worry and worry. The negative impact of modern information technology on urban development is mainly manifested in the following aspects:
1 may aggravate the deterioration of human ecological environment. With the development of modern information technology, people's choice of living standards has changed from paying attention to urban spatial location to paying attention to living environment, which will inevitably accelerate the evacuation of urban population to rural areas and make the remaining forests, wilderness and rare animals and plants disappear faster. This requires the government to strengthen the management of environmental protection.
2. The employment pressure of urban population has increased. Although it is still controversial whether the jobs created by modern information technology are less than the jobs it replaces, the development of modern information technology has made the employment structure of society intelligent. So at least modern information technology will lead to structural unemployment. The fundamental solution to this problem lies in people's "lifelong learning", which requires the convenience of urban education information network.
3 make the information distribution between different regions unfair. The information superhighway can narrow the spatial differences between regions. However, due to the time sequence of information superhighway construction, the areas it arrived at came first and then came, which led to unfair information distribution among regions and the gap between urban and rural areas may widen. Urban planners in big cities should fully realize this and fully consider the construction of information superhighway.
4 aggravate the problem of social isolation. In industrial society, people's choice of residence often depends on three factors: transportation distance, environmental conditions and personal income. In the information society, people's living mainly depends on the environment and income, while income mainly depends on intelligence, which will inevitably lead to further population differentiation and serious isolation of urban space, thus destroying the reasonable social structure.
The human information environment is facing many unprecedented problems. Modern information technology not only brings efficient and convenient information services to human beings, but also makes human information environment face many unprecedented problems, such as invasion of privacy, intellectual property rights, information pollution, information security and so on.