Analysts believe that the RMB exchange rate may face short-term pressure. In the case that the Fed's interest rate hike is expected to heat up or other currencies such as the pound weaken, further strengthening of the US dollar will put pressure on the RMB, but it is expected that the RMB exchange rate will be generally stable.
As of June 7 10, 20 cities across the country have introduced a new round of property market regulation policies with "restricting purchases and loans" as the main means. Regarding the impact of the new round of real estate regulation on the RMB exchange rate and foreign exchange reserves, Li said that this will curb the excessive rise of real estate prices, and some investment funds may be withdrawn from the property market and turned to global asset allocation, thus increasing the pressure of RMB exchange rate depreciation and capital outflow, which is also reflected in the recent trend of offshore RMB exchange rate. 165438 on October 7, the offshore RMB exchange rate was 6.7092, down 5.07% from the last day before the festival.
At the just-concluded 4th G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting on 20 16, Zhou Xiaochuan, Governor of the People's Bank of China, said that China is striving to find a balance between improving exchange rate flexibility and maintaining exchange rate stability, and will unswervingly continue to push forward the reform of exchange rate marketization. Recently, the pressure of capital outflow has eased. Considering that China's economic operation remains in a reasonable range and the current account continues to maintain a surplus, China's cross-border capital flow will develop in a more balanced direction.
"The decline in foreign exchange reserves is controllable." Li said that the formal entry of 5438+1 October1RMB into SDR in June will provide more choices for central banks to adjust the currency structure of foreign exchange reserves and provide new opportunities for international investors to allocate RMB assets. It is estimated that by 2020, the RMB held by the central bank and sovereign wealth funds will increase to 500 billion US dollars, the proportion of bonds held by China is expected to reach 5% to 8%, and the proportion of RMB in global foreign exchange transactions will increase from the current 5% to about 15%.
In addition, Li believes that considering that China's trade surplus is still growing, it will help China to keep its foreign exchange reserves stable. Data show that from 2065438 to the end of August 2006, China's trade surplus was 2.3 trillion yuan, up 3.3% year-on-year. Li said that by the end of 20 16, the trade surplus will still maintain a growth rate of about 3%, and the current account surplus will remain at about 2.8% of GDP. These factors will create conditions for the stability of the RMB exchange rate and foreign exchange reserves.