Apartment housing quantity
Recently, Zhongyuan Real Estate disclosed the new properties supplied by Shenzhen in the second half of the year. There are 69 projects planned to enter the market in the second half of the year, which can be described as "heavy volume", about half of which are apartment products. From the perspective of huxing, the pattern of new housing supply in Shenzhen in the future is that small huxing is mainly apartments and large huxing is mainly commercial housing.
In addition, the "little bees" selling real estate in subway stations are also in droves recently. "Down payment of 500,000 yuan, settled in Shenzhen". If you see such an advertisement, it is usually an apartment product. Can I buy an apartment? Is there room for appreciation in the future? Will it hit your hand? Here, the author gives some suggestions on the current situation of apartment market and the choice of home ownership.
Before and after apartment life
Products such as apartments are essentially "bred" by land use control. Even Shenzhen, the "big cow" of industrial development, does not need so much commercial office space. In addition, in the past, big cities were dominated by industry. When overcapacity overlaps with declining exports and rising labor costs, industrial land also makes a lot of room for transformation. As a result, there has been a problem of vacant commercial office buildings.
On the other hand, housing demand is very strong. However, due to strict land use control and the country's concern about the "hollowing out" of industries and excessive real estate, it will cause bubbles. Therefore, on the one hand, industrial land is vacant, on the other hand, housing needs are urgently needed to be met.
As a result, there has been a phenomenon of playing the ball. Many old buildings and commercial land are used to build some livable, business-friendly and business-friendly apartment products, commonly known as "class houses", with the names of apartment-style office, hotel-style apartment, innovative apartment, business apartment and so on. In recent years, with the strict purchase restriction and the strong demand for housing, apartment products in first-tier cities are very popular.
Apartment, no products to build.
So, can I still buy this kind of products now? From the demand point of view, the purchase restriction in big cities will be very strict, and there will be a large influx of migrants. Judging from the demand for self-occupation, even if you have settled down, you may not be able to afford the price of a new house. Population inflow, strict purchase restriction and strong investment demand, according to this logic, this kind of market is still optimistic.
From the product category, small apartment, finely decorated apartment with low occupancy threshold is the best choice for new citizens, first-time home buyers and investors. However, if we take a long-term view, the problem is not so simple. First of all, the buyers of apartment products have always been mainly investors, and there are almost no requirements for huxing, design and supporting facilities. Even if you live in your own home, you are used as a stepping stone to change your house.
Since the buyer does not attach importance to it, as a supplier's developer, there is naturally not much motivation to build products. Now, major developers are studying their own "product lines" and building their own flagship, but apart from a few high-end apartments, they have hardly heard of well-known apartment series. Moreover, the living experience of many apartments is very poor, and some people even work from home. Elevators are often crowded with delivery vendors, and there is a lot of noise at night.
Apartment, the developer's heart is good
In addition, the apartment is built on industrial and commercial land, and it is impossible to make products and supporting facilities like a house. Developers do this kind of products, there is also a "chicken thief" place, that is, they value the advantage of fast cash flow return. Due to the tight capital chain of developers, any one-time payment will be greatly discounted. In the field of housing, there are more customers who just need and improve, and less one-time payment. However, in the apartment market, due to the low total price, many investors and many one-time payments, it has become a granary for developers to withdraw cash flow. Since the cash flow has been recovered at one time, developers will naturally not care about supporting issues such as follow-up education and community.
I often hear about some problems in the apartment. For example, when the apartment was sold, it was agreed that all kinds of living facilities were available, but when it was delivered, it was found that there was no open kitchen, no separate bathroom and no air conditioning plug-in. Not long ago, the author learned that a friend was going to defend his rights, saying that the apartment he bought could not be connected with gas, while the previous one could.
The selling point of the apartment is very hard.
Upon inquiry, it was learned that the problem was a restricted product, and independent toilets and kitchens could not be set up, with the aim of cracking down on real estate speculators. Another important problem is that the "short-term, flat and fast" operation driven by rising property prices is no longer suitable for the current market. At present, the property market has entered a sideways period. The so-called "sideways" is not that it does not rise, but that there is not much left after the cost is removed.
Therefore, the value of the house no longer depends on the expected price increase and expected self-realization, but on its use value. Specifically, what are the "selling points" of competing products? In the past, whether it was boarding, transition or investment, apartments were indeed optional products. But now, the "selling point" of the apartment has begun to be exposed.
Apartment, more and more mainstream.
Now, competing products are springing up like mushrooms after rain, replacing apartments. For example, first-tier cities have entered the era of improved housing, and "selling small and buying big" has released many small-sized houses. Compact one-bedroom one-bedroom or two-bedroom one-bedroom with controllable total price is becoming more and more popular.
Big cities are "old and small" with developed small businesses, dense shops and strong living atmosphere, which can satisfy the favor of office workers who sleep for half an hour in the morning. The country has added elevators to the "old and small", reformed pipelines, repaired surrounding businesses, built parking lots and so on. , but also improve the competitiveness of such houses. In short, apartments are becoming more and more non-mainstream, the land in big cities is turning to stock revitalization, the supply of such houses will continue (such as Shenzhen), it will be more difficult to sell in the future, and the rental income will tend to decline. Since the supply-side reform, regulation has increasingly emphasized persuasion rather than demand-side attack, and this goal has gradually been realized.