Securities Times reporter Wojking Wu Cao Chen Duan Jiuhui
First-tier cities have always been the vane of the national property market. According to the "Changes of House Prices in 70 Large and Medium-sized Cities in February 2020" released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the house prices in first-tier cities showed a "top" market at the end of the year. A field survey by the Securities Times reporter found that in this wave of "hikes", high-quality school districts have become the main force leading the rise.
Housing prices in first-tier cities have once again led the rise, and the regulation of the property market has quietly arrived. Yesterday, Shanghai issued the Opinions on Promoting the Stable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market in this Municipality to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.
Beijing: "Over400,000 in one night"
It's just a case.
The market price of Beijing Mansion has risen steadily, which is called "the tail-kicking" market in the industry. On the other hand, a recent news that the housing in Haidian School District in Beijing has soared by 400,000 overnight has attracted the attention of all parties. The Securities Times reporter learned from a number of school district housing sales agents that at the end of the year and the beginning of the year, the transaction volume of Beijing school district housing was large, and the high-quality housing in the early stage was digested. In terms of price, the housing in Beijing school district does have a slight price increase trend, with an increase of about 5% compared with a year ago. "Recently, due to the substantial increase in transaction volume and transaction volume, the bargaining space of the owners is small. The housing in Zhichunli, Haidian District, soared by 400,000 overnight, just a case. " The agent said.
Recently, the Securities Times reporter visited several school districts in Xicheng District, Beijing. An intermediary told reporters that "the educational resources of the financial street school district are second to none, and small-sized houses are very popular." When talking about whether the house price has risen recently, "the house price is relatively stable, but the recent transaction volume and transaction volume are large, and the bargaining space of the owners is small." The above-mentioned intermediary also told reporters that although Xicheng District implements the multi-school dicing policy, the overall educational resources are first-class. "The recent transaction volume has been significantly enlarged, which is related to the collection of admission information in April this year. Many customers in need choose to hand over the house before the Spring Festival. " The reporter then went to Xuanwumenwai Street, just across the street from the property. This area belongs to Guangnei School District in Xicheng District. Compared with the educational resources of Financial Street, it is "second-rate", but the average house price in the region is also above 1 1 ten thousand yuan per square meter. A house with a total price of only 2.85 million yuan caught the attention of reporters. But the house is a bungalow, with an area of only 16 square meters, which is equivalent to the unit price of170,000.
"I am the owner of Haidian, Beijing. The price of school district housing has indeed risen sharply. Of course, I have fallen before. Compared with other first-tier cities, Beijing is recovering. " Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate, told reporters. Regarding the characteristics of the current Beijing property market, he further analyzed that the Beijing property market has been basically stable recently, with a few areas rising and transactions becoming active. "The reason for the rise in housing prices in Beijing is very simple. The funds and demand brought by the epidemic have come back, especially the demand for school districts has soared. It is impossible to go abroad for further study, so we can only choose China. In addition, Beijing's limited competition room supply has changed, unlimited price has become the mainstream, and buyers have gradually realized that prices will change. In addition, the biggest reason is that Beijing housing prices have fallen before, and Beijing houses are cost-effective. "
Hu Jinghui, chief economist of Jing Hui think tank, told the Securities Times reporter that the areas where the volume and price rebounded nationwide were concentrated in the Yangtze River Delta and Greater Bay Area, and the property market in the northern region did not pick up significantly. But Beijing has unique advantages and rich resources. After the epidemic, the transaction volume of Beijing real estate market was released, and the demand for market improvement increased significantly. He believes that at present, Beijing's property market policy regulation is second only to Shenzhen. As long as the house price is in a relatively reasonable range, the regulatory policies will not be overweight, but only slightly adjusted, such as restrictions on sales and purchase conditions. "If there is no change like the Shenzhen property market, the policy will not change much.
From the perspective of national real estate regulation and control, the regulation and control policies are more and more detailed and localized. However, what Beijing urgently needs to solve is the imbalance of educational resources. "
Shanghai: "Warm Winter"
The hot and dry market ushered in regulation.
The Shanghai property market, which has been silent for three years, ushered in a rise in volume and price in 2020, and the transaction volume climbed all the way. In particular, the "warm winter" market of Shanghai property market in June 5438+0 1 and February 65438 last year was unbearable, and the market picked up obviously.
"The school district housing market is too hot!" Ms. Wang, a citizen of Pudong New Area in Shanghai, told the Securities Times reporter, "When looking at the house, the landlord will increase the price by 50,000 yuan. I didn't hesitate, but it's settled. Otherwise, the total price of that suite has increased by more than 400,000 in less than half a month. " She introduced that at the end of 65438+February in 2020, she decisively bought an old house with an area of 33 square meters in the inner ring of Pudong, Shanghai, with a transaction price of about 4.5 million yuan. Half a month later, the total listing price of several suites in the same community has risen to more than 4.9 million yuan.
"Sufficient supply laid the foundation for a new high at the end of the year." According to Lu Wenxi, a market analyst of Shanghai Zhongyuan Real Estate, the transaction area of new commercial housing in Shanghai in February 2020 was1227,000 square meters, an increase of 59. 1% from the previous month, setting a new high in 2020. At the same time, although the supply and transaction of new houses in Shanghai are increasing, the reporter learned that the scarce units and school districts in some popular sectors are in short supply, and it is hard to find a room.
In addition, according to the statistics of Tongce Real Estate Consulting, in February 2020, there were more than 30 newly opened buildings in Shanghai, and the recognition rate of more than 20 projects exceeded 100%, and the number of 13 projects exceeded 1000 groups. A few months ago, a project with the highest popularity in Shanghai's new housing market, 13 people grabbed a suite, the first suite of the project participated in the lottery, and the capital verification was 7 million. It even cost130,000 to buy a second suite for capital verification. However, Lu Wenxi also believes that the current Shanghai property market structure is unbalanced, and the recognition of hot plates and hot properties is high. On the contrary, the outer suburbs only need to recognize it.
Yang Hongxu, vice president of Shanghai Yiju Real Estate Research Institute, said that in the current market transactions, just need and just need are the absolute main force, and the Shanghai property market is the release of demand after three years of downturn. "Cyclical forces, avoiding risks to improve demand under the epidemic situation, anti-inflation demand, changing the old quantity, citizen recruitment education reform, and relaxing the settlement of talents have formed the current property market fever. "
The fiery Shanghai property market has also ushered in new regulation. Last night, Shanghai issued the "Opinions on Promoting the Stable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market in this Municipality", clearly and strictly implementing the housing purchase restriction policy. Couples who buy commercial housing within three years after divorce, the number of houses they own is calculated according to the total number of families before divorce. Adjust the exemption period of value-added tax, and collect the full value-added tax when individuals sell houses that have been purchased for less than five years. The "Opinions" emphasize strict management of commodity housing sales. Strictly manage the sales plan of new commercial housing for the record. Strict implementation of commercial housing sales "one price" and "real name registration system" and other management systems. We will improve the notarization and lottery system for newly-built commercial housing, and give priority to meeting the housing demand of "families without housing". The introduction of regulatory policies is expected to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.
The tail-lifting market of Guangzhou-Shenzhen property market
Shenzhen property market has just passed the "magic" year of 2020. 202 1 Shenzhen's new housing market was once again stirred up by Qianhai's "new online celebrity market". However, the reporter found that some changes have taken place in the new rules of Longguang Qianhaitianjing and Tian Jian Yueguifu, and it is necessary to register the purchase intention on I-Shenwang APP before submitting the information of the corresponding official WeChat account online. The two "new sites for online celebrities" in Qianhai are the first luxury websites in the city to adopt a unified housing registration system this year. The system will be fully rolled out this year, and the qualification examination of buyers will be more stringent.
The price difference of a second-hand house leads to a new upsurge. On the other hand, the price of second-hand houses in Shenzhen is still firm. In the last week of 65,438+in February last year, the number of online signings of second-hand houses in Shenzhen reached 4,866, up 104.8% from the previous month. Although the number of online signings has dropped below 2,000 sets in the past two weeks, the "jumping tail" market shows the mentality of buyers and owners.
"I talked to the owner with the intermediary for 3 days, and the owner was unwilling to drop a penny." Miss Ye is just a buyer. She saw several buildings in Nanshan South Oil Area and took a fancy to the degree brought by the houses in this area. "The second-hand houses that are slightly passable now are very firm in price, and the listing price is ridiculously high. There are few houses that are really sold."
Not only Shenzhen, but also Guangzhou, the leading city in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, the property market has also stepped out of the "top" market. According to the statistics of Shanghai Yiju Research Institute, house prices in first-tier cities rose again in the fourth quarter of last year, and Guangzhou became the most active first-tier city in the fourth quarter of last year. In February last year, the price of new and second-hand houses in Guangzhou rose by 0.7% month on month, ranking second among 70 large and medium-sized cities.
Shenzhen and Guangzhou live in different environments. The reporter interviewed many market observers, intermediaries and buyers in Guangzhou and Shenzhen. Judging from the situation reflected by them, after more than two years of stability, the Guangzhou property market is likely to be tapped, and the market has entered an upward channel. Moreover, the uneven hot and cold markets in Shenzhen and Guangzhou are very obvious, and the property markets in Tianhe, Huangpu and Nansha in Guangzhou are even more "hot".
"20 18 bought a second-hand house in Changgang, Haizhu District, and the current price has hardly changed from the price bought at that time." Mr. Mai has lived in Guangzhou for many years, and he seems to regret his decision at that time. "My friend chose a second-hand house next to Tianhe Park at that time, and the average price has risen from 80,000 yuan per square meter at that time to 1.2 million yuan now."
Guangzhou's "fiery" property market has also attracted the attention of relevant departments. Earlier this month, the Guangzhou Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau said that it was carrying out a special rectification campaign for the real estate market order. On June 5438+09, the Tianhe District People's Government of Guangzhou issued a reminder letter from Tianhe District Bureau of Housing, Construction and Landscape Architecture on severely cracking down on acts that disrupt market order, such as driving up housing prices. The article points out that intermediaries and employees who participate in malicious speculation, drive up housing prices and spread false housing, false advertisements and false sales news will be investigated and punished according to law, and their legal responsibilities will be investigated.
The micro-environment and regulatory pressure faced by Shenzhen and Guangzhou are completely different, which will also affect the follow-up policy direction of the two cities. Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of Yiju Research Institute, said that the rise in housing prices in Guangzhou is the result of a combination of factors such as talent introduction policy, Shenzhen-Dongguan spillover effect and "price depression". In the past few years, housing prices in third-and fourth-tier cities have mainly benefited from the shed reform bonus, while second-tier cities have mainly benefited from the new talent policy. However, as the upsurge of shed reform subsided, monetary policy returned to neutrality, and the value of first-tier cities reappeared. Of course, there are still many favorable supports for housing prices in some second-tier cities in the east, but they are not as good as the agglomeration effect of first-tier cities.