Every March, the transaction volume of the property market will be better than before, and then there are various news signals that the market is picking up. Want to buy a house began to worry, for fear of missing this wave, another year in vain.
Actually, you don't have to.
Compared with other assets, the biggest difference of real estate is that it is a fragmented and discrete market. In the property market, you must not use some local characteristics as the overall judgment.
Instead of being followed by the media, I think we should think more:
How can I use this vague state to do something for myself?
0 1
The first thing to tell you is that the property market is showing signs of recovery.
Judging from the natural transaction volume distribution of the property market, March is the peak transaction season in a year. Looking forward to five years, yes. So will the next five years.
The red circle below shows the number of transactions of second-hand houses in Shanghai in March, which is basically the highest in the whole year. 2065438+March 2006 is still the month with the highest number of transactions in history.
The reason is also very simple, because 1, the cold weather in February, and the Spring Festival, there will be a lot of backlog in March. In addition, bank loans are large at the beginning of the year, which is also easy to facilitate transactions.
Therefore, the gold and silver in the property market have always been there, and this year will be the case. Never make routine a special case.
02
But the overall recovery does not mean that every city is prosperous.
Because China is big enough to buy a house, it is impossible to act in unison.
According to my observation, the current transaction volume of second-hand houses in Shanghai, Beijing, Yanjiao and Hefei is very good, basically confirming that the market has picked up and bottomed out. If you buy a house in these cities, you can be bold and buy it when you meet the right one.
In Shenzhen, Xiamen, Guangzhou and other cities, the transaction volume is still low, so you can buy and wait. Hangzhou, Nanjing, Wuhan, Zhengzhou and Chongqing are still in the process of adjustment and have to wait. Cities with long-term low housing prices, such as Changsha and Chengdu, can intervene at any time as long as they are qualified to buy a house.
About four or five years ago, we found that there was a cycle difference of at least six months to two years between cities. Due to the different market heat in different places, there may even be cases where restrictions and incentives coexist between different cities. For example, not long ago, Xiangcheng District of Suzhou was tightening restrictions on purchases, and now more second-tier cities are relaxing regulation.
Therefore, in the process of buying a house, the statement of the national property market is meaningless. We just need to know a general idea, whether it is strong, weak or neutral.
More attention should be paid to the observation of Shanghai, Beijing and Shenzhen property markets. These three cities are the real standard-bearers of China real estate market, leading the ups and downs of China real estate market.
03
Further refinement to the inside of a city, the differentiation is also obvious.
The new housing market in Shanghai recently is also a world of ice and fire.
New suburban sites with reasonable pricing, especially those in the price range of 4 million to 6 million, were oversubscribed at the opening, such as Jinmaofu in Jiading New Town, and some model rooms in Songjiang Sijing Jindixiyue were closed due to hot subscription, and the subscription will be terminated ahead of schedule.
But on the other hand, there are also quiet and cold situations. For example, the legendary Oriental Yueyao, which opened for the first time in Qiantan, Pudong, broke the practice that Qiantan had to queue up to shake the number every time it opened because the product strength was not as good as the previous projects.
These events have a lot of material spread in the circle of friends every day. If you judge the whole city by the cases you see, you will be taken to the wrong rhythm.
To make matters worse, some people will subconsciously take the initiative to filter information that is beneficial to them. Those who have rooms and look at a lot of things only see the crowds of people. No house, no one, only a banner demonstration around the sales office.
None of this is right.
A more reliable method is to look at the number of second-hand housing transactions announced every month, compared with last year and last month. If you only choose a quantitative indicator to buy a house, I suggest the transaction volume of second-hand houses, which is the most accessible and useful indicator. It will not be disturbed by the price limit of new houses and the pre-sale certificate, which directly reflects the purchase intention of the receiver.
A simpler way is to ask professional investors how they feel about sweeping goods every month, especially the speed at which discounted houses are digested. First-line feedback will be several months faster than statistics.
04
Friends who have experienced many rounds of bulls and bears in the property market should know:
At present, this situation is optimistic, but the transaction is uneven, which is a typical appearance of a calm market ending.
Simply put, it is the bottom feature.
Some prescient funds have taken the initiative to intervene in undervalued stocks, such as discounted bamboo shoots in Shanghai Dahongqiao. Houses with higher increase in the previous period and without proper adjustment will continue to make up for the decline, such as Jiaxing, a satellite city without subway commuting around Shanghai.
What I want to remind you in particular is that the bottom is never achieved in one step, but it is repeatedly impacted, consolidated, stabilized and then upward. This process may be one year, two years, or longer.
I've always told you that the current market is similar to 20 14 before the big bull market started. The whole market tends to be calm, and the opportunity to buy at the bottom has arrived. But if you say that 2020 will be as awesome as 20 15, it's really hard to say, and you have to wait for the clear encouragement and support of big leaders.
Therefore, bottoming out does not mean that house prices have skyrocketed.
Don't be too hasty, and don't consider the market across the board.
Because whether selling or buying a house, there are still many price-insensitive counterparties in the market at this stage. In this process of repeatedly hitting the bottom of the market, if you move fast, you will be at a disadvantage in the game process.
05
What should I do to buy a house at this stage?
The first one is chasing those bonus products.
One is to buy price-limited new houses, such as Hexi in Nanjing, six districts in the main city of Hangzhou, Shekou in Shenzhen and Qiantan in Shanghai. There will still be price-limited new houses listed in these places in the future. These are all new houses with 20 16 and 10 as anchor points to lock the price ceiling. Even after two years of property market adjustment, the opening price is still competitive. As long as the product strength is acceptable, you can continue to shake the number of bonus hunter.
The other is to find low-priced second-hand housing.
There are fewer discounted houses in the market, but there are still many landlords who don't know. In addition, from time to time, there are so-called negative effects such as property tax, which have a great psychological impact on ordinary people. We believe that we can continue to dig deep into second-hand houses this year and seize a wave of quiet welfare.
The following is what a Shanghai fan saw in the second-hand market of Dahongqiao.
In addition, it should be noted that many projects that cannot be sold in the early stage will also fish in troubled waters, so everyone should pay attention to avoid them.
Most of these projects have the following characteristics: unlimited purchases in the outer suburbs, the theme of tourism and old-age care, and the concept of high-speed rail commuting. The prices are significantly low and will be widely promoted.
Generally, things that sell well don't need much effort. This rule is still valid in the property market.
06
On the other hand, if you want to replace the house, and the house in your hand is not so good, now is the best opportunity in the last three years.
On the one hand, the transaction volume is picking up, and it is more likely to sell the house through some means of beautification and decoration. Even better, most sectors are still hovering at a low level. Although selling a house can't sell at a high price, at least you can copy the money to the end.
I have a fan who has a set of Shanghai old and young things to change, which has been on the market since last year 10. At that time, almost no one looked at the house, and occasionally the bid was cut to death. I simply advised him not to sell it in a hurry until March this year.
He received good news two days ago. He used some optimization methods I taught him and successfully sold it at 88% of the highest price in the bull market. I think this price is very good.
Because at present, the average price of Shanghai property market has dropped from the top of the bull market in March 20 17 to 15%. His house is old and small, which is seriously damaged in terms of product strength. If it is urgent to sell, you need to allow about 5% more. But the price he sells is basically slightly better than the current market price, which in itself saves a lot of money. After you get the funds, you can buy discounted bamboo shoots and get a wave of income.
I suggest that friends who sell houses should increase their efforts now, and remember to optimize their sales by means of light decoration, empty customs clearance, multi-agency listing, and house sales incentives. The transaction price shall not be lower than 10% of the current market price at most.
07
So if you really don't have a house purchase plan in the near future, I suggest you:
1, at least have a comprehensive understanding of the market price system. Master the housing price of second-hand houses in the community you want to buy and within 3 kilometers around it. The house price can refer to the average price of the chain home community.
2. Observe the melting speed of low-priced second-hand bamboo shoots. You can add a low-cost housing collection without serious injuries to the second-hand housing in the community, and then observe the speed of house demolition once a week. My experience in Shanghai is that last year's favorite low-priced houses could not sell a few sets a month, but now they can sell more than half of them every week, which is a signal that the market is picking up.
3. Pay attention to the opening price of new houses in the sector. Because the rise in housing prices will always be a new house to promote second-hand housing. As long as the price of the new house is suppressed, the whole plate will not be broken. The cheapest item in the new house is the upper limit of the plate price.
08
Finally, I want to tell you,
No matter how big the market judgment is, it will eventually be implemented. After macro decision analysis, what you can finally do is a detail.
China's property market rarely has a unified rhythm, but more is a differentiated micro-urban context.
Instead of paying attention to the national trend, it is better to pay more attention to your city and put it in your sector.
The sign of buyer's maturity is that he has structured thinking and learned dialectical thinking.
As the saying goes:
Two contradictory concepts can coexist in the mind at the same time, and can be self-consistent, which is the performance of advanced wisdom.
The above is the text, from the financial view of Magic Capital.