Is the mortgage cycle "the longer the better" or "the shorter the better"

By the end of 20 18, the balance of individual housing mortgage loans in China reached 25.75 trillion, and the housing loan was normal. Why do you need a loan? There are only two situations. First, there is insufficient funds to pay in full. The second is to worry about currency depreciation and take money out to do other things. In either case, the bank will mortgage your property before giving you a loan, which is also considered by the bank from the perspective of risk. It is not easy to get a loan from a bank, so there is a saying circulating in the market that "house loan is the only opportunity for most ordinary people to get the biggest loan from a bank in their lives, so we should make good use of it and cherish it". But is this really the case?

Most of us who have bought houses know that there are two main ways to mortgage loans to banks: one is average capital; The second is equal principal and interest. Let's use an example to simply popularize it:

Xiao Zhang bought a house with a total price of 1.5 million. After paying the down payment of 450,000 yuan, the remaining 1.05 million yuan will be mortgaged by Wanxiang Bank. Because the provident fund does not meet the loan conditions, all commercial loans are used. Fortunately, interest rates did not rise. The bank gave him a benchmark interest rate of 4.9% and used two repayment methods, namely, average principal and equal principal and interest. The characteristics and benefits are as follows:

Average fund: the total interest during the period is about 770,000 yuan, and the repayment is 7,200 yuan in the first month, and then it is reduced by about 12 yuan every month. The characteristic is that the repayment amount is high in front, and then the monthly repayment amount decreases one after another, and the repayment pressure is also decreasing.

Matching principal and interest: the total interest paid during the period is about 956,000, and the monthly repayment amount is 5,570, which is 23% higher than the average principal. The biggest feature of the equal principal and interest repayment method is that the monthly repayment amount is the same and the pressure is equal. During the repayment period, the repayment interest is high before and then low, and the repayment principal is low before and then high. When the repayment time exceeds half of the repayment period, it is not worth the loss to choose to repay the loan in advance.

By comparing the two mortgage loan methods, from the personal point of view of most property buyers, if the family's economic situation is better, they will generally choose average capital's repayment method, which will save 23% interest. However, many banks do not necessarily give you this option, and generally give buyers equal repayment of principal and interest. Of course, in this case, because banks are in a strong position, individuals are generally difficult to change. Then, let's take a look at the situation when the repayment method is established: Take the common matching principal and interest as an example, is the mortgage time "the longer the better" or "the shorter the better"? The loan manager inadvertently told the truth: many people gave money for nothing.

Let's take a look at the repayment method of equal principal and interest when we just need to buy a house. Is the mortgage term long or short? In fact, there is a similarity between equal principal and interest and average capital, that is, the longer the loan term, the higher the interest, which is known to all. We assume that Xiao Li's mortgage business loan is 654.38+0 million, and the loan interest rate is still the benchmark interest rate of 4.9%. Comparing interest according to the repayment time:

The loan term is 10 year, and the total interest is about 267,000 yuan. The loan term is 20 years and the total interest is about 570,000. The loan term is 30 years, and the total interest is about 9 1 10,000. Obviously, after 30 years of loan, the principal will soon be caught up. Such a large interest rate is indeed a very distressed and helpless choice for those who just need to buy a house. But pay attention to this turning point! Is it really that the shorter the loan time, the better? Not necessarily! Let's look at a set of analyses:

We know that the rapid development of domestic economy is accompanied by the rapid depreciation of the currency, which is an indisputable fact. Twenty years ago, we could have a good meal outside with 50 yuan, but today, we can't eat anything with 200 yuan, because extra money makes money worthless. According to folk statistics, in the past 10 years, the average annual depreciation rate of our currency was 7.5%. In other words, it is now 100000 yuan, which is only equivalent to the purchasing power of 500000 yuan before10.

From the above analysis, we should understand that the mortgage interest rate we calculated is based on the current standard. As long as our currency depreciates faster than the mortgage interest rate, then those who just need to buy a house will be profitable. Judging from the excessive development speed of M2, it has dropped to about 8% in 20 17 and 20 18 years, which is consistent with the economic speed. As the economic growth rate enters an L-shape, inflation will also stabilize. Therefore, for a long time to come, the average annual inflation rate will remain in the average range of 7-7.5%. Judging from the current national mortgage interest rate, even if the benchmark rises 1-20%, its interest rate is still below 6%, which is obviously lower than the inflation rate. Therefore, for the loan that just needs to buy a house, the conclusion about the length of mortgage choice is: the longer the mortgage time, the better, and the longer the loan can be!

Let's look at the investment in buying a house. How long should a mortgage loan be suitable? There are two ways to invest in buying a house: first, if there is no urgent demand for funds, try to pay in full if possible, mainly considering the liquidity of funds and assets. Because it is easy to buy a house, but it is not so easy to change hands. If you add a loan, it will be more troublesome to handle. In addition, the cost of capital is also a problem. Since you invest in buying a house, it means that you have not found an investment product that can outperform the loan interest rate. Mortgages will erode your profits. Of course, repaying the loan in advance will generally last for 1-3 months.

In the second case, if you are starting a business and want to buy a house for investment, but you are afraid of insufficient capital turnover and want to keep some spare money in your hand, then the way you choose mortgage loan is: if the bank can give you the way of average capital, you will give priority to average capital. If the bank only gives you equal principal and interest, then you can take "long loan and short repayment". In other words, it takes a long time to apply for a loan, and I intend to pay it off in a short time. This is the best way to save interest and increase income.

Finally, send two tips for mortgage repayment: 1. If you want to repay the loan in advance, most banks stipulate that after 12 months of mortgage business, you can apply for early repayment, which is generally an integer multiple of 10000 yuan, and you can repay it twice a year, and the completed mortgage is not included in the later interest; 2. In the process of repayment, if you find that some banks have low mortgage interest rates, you can find a guarantee company to assist you in remortgage, which is equivalent to remortgage the remaining mortgages. Of course there will be costs. This operation is feasible if the interest difference to be repaid in the future is significantly higher than this cost.

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