In practice, many standardized models are used in industry research.
Mastering some standardized models plays an important role in mastering the research routines.
0 1 five-force model
In the research, a key factor is industry competition, including industry competition pressure and market concentration.
As a classic standardized model to study the competitive situation of the industry, the five-force model is still not out of date.
The five-force model mainly analyzes the competitive pressure caused by existing competitors, buyer/seller bargaining power, substitutes and potential competitors in the industry. Different factors will affect the influence factors of various forces on industry competition.
Porter's Five Forces Model
The threat of potential competitors depends on the level of industry barriers. The higher the industry barriers, the less the threat of potential entrants. For example, in high-tech industries, technical barriers are relatively high, and the threat of potential entrants is relatively small.
The buyer's bargaining power depends on the buyer's concentration, income level, product differences and other factors; For example, in Shang Chao, group buying has stronger bargaining power than individuals.
The bargaining power of suppliers depends on the concentration of supply resources, the importance of buyers to suppliers, the scarcity of supplied products and other factors; For example, in some monopoly industries (telecommunications, fuel, etc. ), suppliers have strong bargaining power.
The threat of substitutes mainly depends on the similarity of products, cost performance of substitutes, technological innovation and other factors. For example, in the mobile phone industry, keyboard phones are gradually replaced by smart phones.
The competitive pressure in the industry mainly depends on factors such as industry concentration, number of competitors, market position difference, market share and so on. For example, chain convenience stores now have a large number of brands, which is a completely competitive market.
The analysis of the internal situation of the industry from the perspective of competition by the five-force model can provide some reference for the company's decision-making and future market and product positioning.
02 market concentration model
According to the industry concentration CRn, it refers to the market share of the top N enterprises in an industry.
The indicators involved are sales, added value, total assets, output, output value, number of employees and so on.
For example, CR3 refers to the market share of the three largest enterprises in this industry. Similarly, CR5 refers to the market share of the five largest enterprises in this industry, and CR8 refers to the market share of the eight largest enterprises.
The calculation company is as follows:
These include:
CRn= industry concentration index.
Ai = output value, output, sales volume, sales volume, number of employees, total assets, etc. Top-ranked enterprises.
N= the largest number of top enterprises in the industry.
N= the total number of enterprises in the industry.
According to the classification standard of American economist Bain, the industrial market structure can be roughly divided into oligopoly type (CR8≥40%) and competitive type (Cr8 < 40%).
Among them, oligopoly is subdivided into very high oligopoly (CR8 ≥ 70%) and low concentration oligopoly (40% ≤ Cr8 < 70%).
The competitive type is subdivided into low concentration competitive type (20% ≤ Cr8 < 40%) and decentralized competitive type (Cr8 < 20%).
03 industry life cycle diagram
Learning to judge which stage an industry is in is an essential skill for an industry analyst.
At the beginning of the industry, the overall market structure has not yet formed, and the number of companies is relatively small. At this time, it is necessary to study only a few companies in the industry first, and then summarize the internal logic of the whole industry.
In the middle and late stage of the industry, the market structure is relatively stable and there is a high degree of industry concentration within the industry. At this time, we should first study the fundamentals of the industry and then study the specific companies.
The life cycle of the industry is divided into: initial stage-growth stage-maturity stage-decline stage.
Initial stage: at this stage, the industry is not accepted by most people, consumers are in the wait-and-see stage, and the key development opinion leaders drive everyone's attention to emerging industries.
In the initial stage of the industry, the technical trend is not clear, and the products have not been generally recognized. At this time, high input does not necessarily lead to high output, and the possibility of loss or even failure is very high, and the risk is extremely high. Therefore, enterprises should be fully prepared for risk control.
However, at this stage, the competition is not fierce and the entry threshold is low. If we can persist and get the favor of capital, the future prospects will be brighter.
For example, the current artificial intelligence industry is still in its infancy, and many technologies have not been applied or invented.
Growth period: At this stage of the industry, its products are gradually recognized by the public, the market demand increases rapidly, and the growth rate remains at a high level.
At this time, with the continuous expansion of the market scale, the scale of each enterprise will be further improved, but the internal competition is relatively less intense and the profits are higher.
And high profits will inevitably attract many enterprises outside the industry to enter this market, so in the middle and late growth period, market competition intensifies, and mergers and forced exits from the market abound.
Maturity: At this stage, the industry as a whole is in line with the economic trend, the industry demand is close to or has reached saturation, and the market share of major enterprises in the industry is relatively fixed.
In terms of competition, the form is fierce, and competitors in the industry enter each other's market segments. Some small and medium-sized manufacturers may not be able to resist the offensive of big groups. There are more mergers, reorganizations and acquisitions, and the industry concentration is further strengthened.
Recession: After the industry remains mature, products and technologies gradually begin to age, new products and technologies begin to appear, the market share of original products gradually shrinks, and some enterprises begin to quit the industry.
04 written at the end
Every industry analyst will not use the model alone.
Understanding the meaning and logical relationship behind each model is particularly important for perfecting an industry research report.
You have me and I have you.
It may be a happy thing to mix each other's ingredients.