Editor? |? Li Guozheng
Produced? |? Bangning studio
Sales decline, high inventory, factory direct sales, used car recession ... In the automobile industry, dealers who passed the cold winter of 5438+ 10 in June are often an incision to observe the automobile industry.
On March 1 in 2023, china automobile dealers association released the early warning index of automobile dealer inventory in February, the automobile consumption index and the in-depth analysis of used cars in June 1 to analyze the current automobile market status and trends.
The data shows that in February, the national automobile dealer inventory early warning index was 58. 1%, up 2.0 percentage points year-on-year and down 3.7 percentage points month-on-month. At this point, the dealer inventory early warning index has been higher than the threshold (50%) for 8 consecutive months-the automobile circulation industry is still in the recession range.
As a barometer of automobile market demand, dealer inventory early warning index reflects the circulation situation of China automobile market. The higher the inventory early warning index, the lower the market demand. On the contrary, the greater the inventory pressure, the greater the operating pressure and risk.
"Last February was mostly the Spring Festival, which was the off-season of production and sales. In February this year, the auto market was slightly better than the same period last year, but it was lower than the expectations of auto dealers. " Lang, Deputy Secretary-General of china automobile dealers association, analyzed that on the one hand, due to weak demand, insufficient overall market demand and price war of new energy, consumers' wait-and-see mood is obvious.
On the other hand, many car companies have adjusted their selling prices, increased terminal promotion and promoted terminal sales. However, the floating interest rate of LPR Bank (the best loan interest rate) was lowered, and some consumption funds were mainly used to repay the mortgage in advance, so the intention to buy a car was low.
China automobile dealers association predicted that the terminal sales of passenger cars in February will be around 6,543,800+0.4 million, which is 200,000 fewer than that predicted at the beginning of the month.
Similar to the new car market, in February, the used car manager index was 48.6%, which was lower than the threshold, and the used car market was in a depression.
After the cold winter of 1 and the energy storage in February, the passenger car market is expected to usher in spring in March. Most dealers believe that, on the whole, with the frequent introduction of promotion policies, consumer confidence will rebound and automobile sales will continue to grow.
0 1.
cold start
In June this year, 5438+ 10, affected by short-term factors such as the aftermath of the epidemic and the advance of the Spring Festival, all car companies generally got a cold start.
According to the data of the National Passenger Car Market Information Association (hereinafter referred to as the Passenger Car Association), the retail sales of passenger cars in a narrow sense10/2.94 million in May, down 37.8% year-on-year and 40.4% month-on-month. The new energy subsidy price policy has been adjusted to a large extent, which has led to a certain wait-and-see mood among consumers. In the month, the retail volume of new energy was 333,000 vehicles, down 6. 1% year-on-year and 486.5438+0% month-on-month.
In February, the sales rhythm of the auto market gradually recovered. However, due to the end of the overdraft effect of policies such as halving the purchase tax and subsidizing the slope reform, and the short working day in February, the overall sales situation was less than expected.
China automobile dealers association's survey shows that as many as 80.2% of dealers think that the sales volume in February failed to meet expectations, mainly due to the following three reasons.
First, some dealers said that manufacturers have higher tasks, more vehicles in transit, greater inventory pressure and poor capital flow.
Second, fierce market competition, chaotic terminal sales prices, and the continuous decline in gross profit have led to a decline in operating profit.
Third, the economic recovery, the increase of migrant workers and the lack of local purchasing power have led to a decline in passenger flow and orders.
The above situation is reflected in the five sub-indices that constitute the early warning index. Among them, inventory, market demand, average daily sales and employees all increased in February, but the operating condition index decreased by 6.7 percentage points.
The reason for the increase is the recovery of automobile production in February and the strong motivation of dealers to replenish inventory. The decline is due to fierce market competition, many car companies cut prices, and the operating conditions of dealers have declined, which indirectly reflects the greater pressure on dealers to survive.
On February 5, the news that Zhejiang Zhongtong Holding Group, the largest automobile distribution group in Taizhou, Zhejiang Province, ran away attracted attention. Relevant information shows that many distribution stores under Zhongtong Holding Group have been shut down, and employees' salaries cannot be settled on time, and the maintenance given or purchased by a large number of users cannot be solved.
Many car owners have left messages on the Internet: "Luqiao Zhongtong Jaguar Land Rover Store still has two maintenance, and this time it is gone." "I haven't done three free maintenance, and I closed the door." "I haven't had time to get the certificate." ...
The closure of a large number of stores in Zhongtong Holding Group is also the epitome of the reshuffle of automobile sales services.
On February 6th, 2022, china automobile dealers association released a survey report on the living conditions of automobile dealers nationwide. The data shows that last year, the proportion of loss, flat and profit of dealers was 45.2%, 25% and 29.7% respectively, and the proportion of unprofitable dealers expanded to 70%.
Dealers have placed new hopes on the automobile market in March. The survey results show that 26.0% of dealers think that the market demand decreased in March, 44.6% think that the demand is flat, and 29.4% think that the dealers have increased.
"March is the first peak season after the release of the epidemic. With the release of local promotion policies and the promotion activities of dealers, consumer confidence will be enhanced and the number of consumers buying cars will further increase. Xu Jianfei, china automobile dealers association Industrial Coordination Department, said.
China automobile dealers association predicted that the terminal retail volume will increase steadily in March, and it is expected to reach 6.5438+0.8 million vehicles, compared with 6.5438+0.5 million vehicles in the same period last year.
02.
Used car icebreaking
Looking back on the development of automobile market in recent years, automobile products and production capacity, market structure and demand have undergone profound changes-the characteristics of "addition+replacement" have gradually emerged, and used cars are becoming the most important endogenous driving force.
"Redemption is the biggest demand in the automobile market, and used cars will play a decisive role." Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the association, believes that activating the used car market, on the one hand, will bring about structural upgrading instead of consumption, which in turn will drive new car sales; On the other hand, used cars lower the consumption threshold, and smooth the ladder consumption and circulation of used cars, which can effectively expand the scale of automobile consumption.
On June 5,438+10, the second-hand car market in China traded1248,200 vehicles, down1/0.87% from the previous month and 15.93% from the same period last year, with a transaction amount of 78.029 billion yuan. Among them, the year-on-year decline was significantly better than the nearly 40% decline in the new car market.
"Mainly affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the actual number of trading days has decreased, and some car purchase demand was released in advance in June 5438+February last year." Lu, deputy director of china automobile dealers association Information Department, said that the used car market is expected to break the ice in February.
He believes that February is the real market start-up period after the Spring Festival, and it is also the market start-up period three years after the end of the epidemic. The long-dormant market continues to reflect new consumption opportunities. "The demand for fuel vehicles will gradually recover, which is good for the used car market dominated by fuel vehicles. Therefore, the used car market in February is worth looking forward to. "
In 2022, the used car industry ushered in the most intensive favorable policy combination in history. Obstacles that hinder the circulation of used cars, such as restrictions on the removal of used cars, restrictions on taxation methods, and lack of temporary property registration, have been removed one after another, and the circulation of used cars has entered a new stage. However, due to the superposition of multiple factors, the second-hand car market transactions still showed a single-digit decline, and the annual transaction volume reached 654.38+060.2 million.
On June 5438+1 October1this year, the second-hand car industry added favorable policies-restricting individual operation, encouraging enterprise operation, and guiding the second-hand car transaction from private transaction to enterprise operation, so that consumers can enjoy the same service as buying a new car when buying a second-hand car.
2023 is a year when all policies are fully implemented, and the used car market will regain its vitality. "We estimate that the annual transaction volume of used cars will reach 20 million," said china automobile dealers association Deputy Secretary-General Relo.
As the second growth curve of the used car market, the popularity of new energy used cars continues to be "arrogant". According to the daily car auction data, in February, the online transaction volume of new energy used cars increased by 1 19.9% year-on-year and 183.3% quarter-on-quarter.
Behind the bright data shows the strong development of new energy vehicles. According to the latest statistics of the Ministry of Public Security, the number of new energy vehicles in China has reached 1 365,438+10,000, showing a rapid growth trend. The life cycle of new energy vehicles is shorter than that of fuel vehicles. Coupled with rapid iterative updating and local subsidies to promote consumption, it is expected that the market demand will continue to grow.
But at the beginning of the year, the shock wave of Tesla's price reduction pushed new energy used car dealers into the ice room.
After Tesla, Wen Jie, Tucki and others followed suit. Lan Tu, Ai 'an, Krypton, Zero Run, Fan Fei and other brands have launched different forms of limited-time preferential activities. Even Japanese companies whose prices have been firm have joined the tide of price reduction. Dongfeng Nissan ARIYA and FAW Toyota bZ4X offer limited-time discounts as high as 60,000 yuan.
The wave of price reduction in the new energy automobile market soon caused a chain reaction in the used car market.
"It has been losing money since the beginning of the year, and even new energy used cars have not dared to accept it recently." "It is better to deal with it earlier than to lose money in my hands." Many dealers are suffering from this.
Li Yang, general manager of the Southern District of Fujian Changyue New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. believes that the second-hand car trading of new energy is facing pain in the short term, but the long-term market is improving. "After experiencing losses some time ago, second-hand car dealers will operate new energy vehicles more rationally, reduce the inventory cycle, and be more cautious when choosing niche brands."
Xu Jianfei, the industrial coordination department of china automobile dealers association, said that the market has already ushered in a warming signal, and the second-hand car business may improve in March.
This article comes from Bunning Studio, author Hao, and the copyright belongs to the author. Please contact the author for any form of reprint. The content only represents the author's point of view and has nothing to do with the car reform.