There are many hot spots in the property market these two days, but few are useful. The Central Economic Conference and the special forum sponsored by the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development have planned and set the tone for the 20021property market. To put it bluntly, or a few words:
Don't speculate in real estate, act according to the city, long-term mechanism, and stabilize the market. ...
This year, even the "real estate tax" was not mentioned at all. Unsurprisingly, many rules of interest distribution have not been understood, and legislation is too difficult to be possible within three to five years.
Of course, the "top-level regulatory framework" of the property market is very clear now, which can be summarized as one sentence:
I don't want real estate to be tied to China's economy. All localities must not speculate on housing prices, but we can stabilize housing prices by regulating the policy market. House prices should be matched with currency issuance and nominal economic growth, and "run smoothly".
To put it bluntly, I hope that house prices will maintain a certain proportion of slow growth. Is it possible?
I don't think it's possible.
In the past, the property market was like a plate of grilled fish. Fish is only the purchasing power of urban residents, and side dishes are real estate speculators. After the last round of house price cycle baking, many cities only have fish bone residue, and now it is forbidden to add side dishes. Without oil and water, everyone can only leave.
The premise of achieving sound management is that there are enough fish in the pond. Judging from the transaction data this year, big cities can do it, but small cities are difficult. 202 1 is bound to be a year of large-scale decline and rise.
However, these macro-level reflections on the property market are of little reference value to most people. If you want to seize the opportunity of buying a house, you need to pay attention to the micro-market.
Yesterday, Lao Li sent me a piece of information, claiming that the machine was sorting and proofreading day and night for several days. The data comes from real transactions, so we can analyze many hidden market mysteries.
Inconceivable
First of all, from the overall transaction point of view, in 2020, the transaction volume of second-hand houses in China was 7.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 8. 1% over last year, the largest since 20 15 years.
Many people can't imagine that this year's epidemic has frozen the property market for almost half a year. Under such conditions, the transaction price in the second half of the year rebounded rapidly, even exceeding the sum of last year.
First of all, some big cities have accumulated housing demand for several years, which needs to be generated.
Secondly, every time a major natural disaster occurs, the central bank will issue more money to stimulate the economy, and the transaction volume of the property market will rise. Because the house has always been the best safe-haven investment in society, this is the law all over the world.
Let's take a look at the ten cities with the largest transaction scale:
As can be seen from the figure, Shanghai ranks first in the country with a turnover of 65.438+020.28 billion yuan, followed by Beishangguang, which is strikingly consistent with the ranking of GDP.
The other five cities are all second-tier cities with strong economic strength. They are highly sensitive to funds and have a large number of private enterprises and wealthy people. They are the main destinations for the central bank to release water, which proves the above point of view.
Then, will this housing price market driven by first-and second-tier cities spread to third-and fourth-tier cities across the country?
The answer is no.
First of all, the monetization of shed reform has completely ended. Secondly, third-and fourth-tier cities do not have the advantage of gathering a large number of private enterprises and wealthy people. Finally, most of the third-and fourth-tier cities belong to a group of cities with the latest price increase in the last round, and the regulation time is very short.
The right to buy a house
"Turnover = turnover? House prices ",simply observing the transaction volume, can't see which cities really came to the market window.
For example, Shenzhen sold a luxury house with a price of150,000, while Chongqing sold a suite with 10, so can you say that the market in Shenzhen is better than that in Chongqing? Obviously not.
It also depends on the turnover, which is related to how many families get on the bus this year.
The data shows that Shanghai's second-hand housing transactions this year still rank first in the country with 29 1 10,000 sets, worthy of the name.
Reaching this amount is the result of the release of Shanghai's three-year housing savings.
At present, Shanghai's housing prices are already in the bottom range, and next year's housing prices will rebound with great probability. In recent days, Shanghai owners began to raise housing prices in disguise. If there is a housing demand, they must make a good calculation in the new year and get on the bus quickly.
Followed by Beijing, Chengdu, Guangzhou, Chongqing, Nanjing ... The other ten cities, if there is no real estate control policy this year, will also usher in Xiaoyangchun market early next year, with both volume and price rising.
Let's look at the ten cities with the fastest growth in transaction volume in 2020, and Hangzhou ranks first.
From 20 16 to now, the property market in Hangzhou has never stopped. Looking at the house price alone, 36,404 yuan/square meter has surpassed Guangzhou to rank among the top five in the country. It is really high, and there is a lot of land available for development, so the support of the property market is in doubt.
However, the inflow of talents in Hangzhou in recent years is incomparable. The data shows that in the first ten months of 2020, Hangzhou introduced 309,000 college students under the age of 35, an increase of 45.84% over the whole year of 20 19. It is these talents that continue to push up the market in Hangzhou.
Coupled with the favorable Asian Games in 2022, the multi-track traffic is well connected and the market expectation is full.
Drop sharply
Let's look at the city with the biggest decline in house prices in 2020.
On the whole, housing prices in northern cities have fallen the most, which is in line with economic trends. Langfang ranked first in the decline in house prices, and many people may not know much about Langfang property market. This place focuses on the concept of surrounding Beijing.
Beijing is a benchmark city for regulation and control, and the surrounding markets in Beijing were completely banned on 20 17. Throughout the country, there is no stricter control policy than this place.
Therefore, this year's satellite cities such as Huizhou, Dongguan and Jiaxing, which are surrounded by deep and wide rings, have ushered in a hot situation in the property market, and only Beijing is unknown.
The lower the housing price in the surrounding market of Beijing, the more obvious the depression effect is. As long as the regulation is liberalized, the growth rate of house prices far exceeds that around Shanghai and Shenzhen, and everyone must pay attention to it.
Next, you will find that house prices in Qingdao, Tianjin and Beijing will all fall in 2020, but from the above information, Beijing's transaction volume is the second, Tianjin's is the seventh in the country, and Qingdao's transaction volume growth rate this year is also the ninth in the country.
Why do house prices and transactions contradict each other?
This is the principle that "the transaction lags behind the house price". Under normal circumstances, a few months of transaction rebound will not bring about a rebound in house prices, because the owner's expectation is to follow the "number of people looking at the house".
When the number of people looking at the house exceeds expectations, the owner will sit on the ground and start the price. Therefore, these cities are in the period of housing price braking in 2020 and are accelerating bottoming. As Beijing said at the end of last year, house prices have entered the bottom range, while Qingdao and Tianjin are also accelerating bottoming, and there is not much room for decline, so buyers can look at the house.
However, for cities whose transaction volume and transaction volume are not on the list, the decline in house prices may be a simple appearance, such as Zhengzhou, Jinan, Guiyang and Shijiazhuang. None of these cities are in a hurry to get on the bus. I'm doing data monitoring and I'll let you know as soon as possible.
Be forced by the environment
In addition, the data also gives a list of cities with the strongest housing price expectations of 202 1 owners.
I haven't figured out the operation logic of the list yet, but the situation is basically close to the trend I predicted.
Next year, Greater Bay Area will be the main force of the property market, especially the Buddha beads, and there will be a high probability of compensatory growth next year. Secondly, the core provincial capital cities such as Chengdu, Han, Hefei and An in the Yangtze River Delta will be arranged sideways and usher in a rebound opportunity.