As I said before, I want to talk about raising pigs and talking about wooden circles from the bottom of my heart, because when I talked with some friends, everyone expressed a lot of doubts about wooden circles. One of the questions is. At the 2020 Jiaxing Pig Industry Conference, Mr. Qin once said in his speech that the profit of American pig industry was very low, and the previous industry boom cycle in China was mostly the superposition of various diseases. From this, we infer that it is impossible for China pig industry to complete the production capacity clearing by industry self-discipline, and thus infer that China pig industry will do the same in the future.
I also listened to that speech. At that time, the price of pigs was high, and almost everyone was optimistic about the future. Teacher Lin of Zhengbang said in his speech that it should be scaled up and scaled up. In this case, I am glad to hear that Mr. Qin can still maintain strategic strength and always be cautious about the future. I also told Teacher Qin that this industry is very big and there is no competition. I hope to join hands with the minds of the same industry to achieve win-win cooperation.
At that time, I really didn't care too much about the pig industry in the United States, because after reading some information, the ecological environment of the pig industry in the United States is still very different from that in China, so I think China can learn from it, but it won't take the road of the development of the pig industry in the United States.
Since I want to enrich some basic knowledge this time, let's talk about the similarities and differences between Chinese and American pig industry and see what enlightenment it can give us.
The development history of American pig industry and its advantages over China are described in detail in all kinds of materials, and most of them are praise words, so I will briefly talk about this without going into details. I find that few people talk about the problems and present situation of the pig industry in the United States, so I will talk about them in detail here.
First, the development process and advantages of American pig industry
1. Brief description of the development process: In the late 1970s and early 1980s, the pig breeding industry in the United States began to take shape, and then it was rapidly promoted in the next two decades, with the number of pig farms reduced from 650,000 to about 70,000. During this period, the annual output increased by 35%, the average field stock increased by nearly 10 times, and the management efficiency was significantly improved, with the average psy increased from 9.75 to 19.05. The pig breeding operation is gradually specialized, and the comprehensive breeding pig farm is replaced by professional breeding pig farm, piglet farm and fattening farm. After entering 2 1 century, the scale-up process has slowed down relatively, and the average field stock tends to be stable, but the number and stock ratio of large-scale farms are still rising steadily.
2. The advantages are obvious:
The advantages of low land cost, low feed cost, high intelligence, high breeding efficiency and high health of American raw pigs make the cost of pigs produced in the United States low and the price of pork low.
Second, the current situation and main problems of American pig industry
Since the pig industry in the United States has many advantages, why are the profits meager and many farms closed down?
After consulting many documents and the open letter "The Dilemma of American Pig Industry" written by Todd Thurman, an American pig industry consulting company, we may be able to find the answer. I can sum up the following four points:
1. From the distribution relationship of the pork industry chain in the United States, the slaughtering and food end took the lead in completing the industry integration and began to expand upstream, which promoted the large-scale development of the breeding end with contract production.
This has two effects. On the one hand, the production mode of sales and fixed production reduces the fluctuation of pig price; On the other hand, the downstream of the industrial chain is in a strong position, and the buyer's monopoly makes the farming end lose its bargaining power and dilutes the farming profit.
From 1994 to 2009, the public trading volume of pork decreased from more than 60% to less than 10%, and the closed market contract trading mode replaced the open market trading more.
From 1980 to 20 18, the output value of pig breeding in the United States increased from $5 billion to $8.3 billion, but the output value of pig retail consumption increased from/kloc-0.9 billion to $62.4 billion, and the downstream of the industrial chain earned most of the profits of the industry.
(The above data are collected from Dingli Industry Research Network, Feed Industry Information Network, Pig Duoduo Network and other industry websites. )
2. The production capacity of American pig industry far exceeds domestic demand, and 30% of the pork produced every year depends on exporting to other countries. This export-dependent relationship is obviously extremely unstable, which also brings instability of profits.
For example, in the COVID-19 epidemic in 2020, all kinds of import and export trade were blocked, and many meat enterprises in the United States stopped production, and meat enterprises could not buy pigs from pig enterprises normally, which led to the bankruptcy of Maxwell, the eleventh pig enterprise in the United States.
Americans usually cook by baking and frying. In addition to their own cultural habits, pig's head, pig's tail, internal organs, pig's blood and so on. All of them are unnecessary, and the rest are just disposed of or exported.
There is no need to explain too much about this. Compared with China's eating habits, it is obvious that American pig enterprises and meat enterprises are far less valuable to pigs than us.
4. Many pig companies in America are actually more like professional fattening companies. Due to the highly specialized division of labor in the industry, feed, breeding pigs, piglets and other links are mostly completed by professional companies. Every professional company should get a share of the industry profits.
Third, refer to the enlightenment of American pig industry.
Through the above discussion and some industry data listed in the last article, I think the similarities and differences between Chinese and American pig industry should be clear.
1, the American pig industry chain is the downstream food strength, but the upstream breeding link has become the same situation as the foundry, lacking the right to speak and price in the industry. The pig market in China is a fully competitive market, and the price is completely determined by the relationship between supply and demand.
Americans regard beef and chicken as the main sources of meat. Although there is also pork consumption, the total amount is much lower than the first two. The consumption of pork in China accounts for about 60% of the total consumption of meat food. The habit of eating pork comes from thousands of years' dietary tradition and the geographical environment limitation of China.
3. America is a highly specialized agricultural model. In China, especially after non-plague, the industry is increasingly inclined to the integrated farming model.
4. The road to industrial scale in the United States comes from the food side taking the lead in completing the product standardization demand after integration, forcing upstream integration to meet market demand. China is dominated by fresh meat consumption, and the whole industrial chain is scattered upstream and downstream, lacking strong strength.
5. In the early stage of pig industry integration in the United States, the production level was backward and there were many free-range households. The industrial upgrading was completed through continuous elimination and integration and intelligent technology upgrading. China and the United States are very similar in the initial stage of integration, with many free-range households and insufficient room for improvement, while large enterprises are obviously superior to free-range households in production technology, breeding capacity and environmental protection treatment.
Drawing lessons from the development of American industry and combining with China's national conditions, it seems that the following conclusions can be drawn:
1. The scale of pig industry in China is much larger than that in the United States. Pork production in China is mainly used to meet the meat demand of Chinese people, and some frozen meat needs to be imported from abroad every year. Although there will be price fluctuations caused by staged imbalance between supply and demand, it is difficult to see a situation of oversupply in the short term. Because China has a large population and little land, it is obviously not suitable for large-scale grazing of cattle and sheep, and it is difficult to change the situation that pork will be the main source of meat for China people in the future.
2. The market share of the top ten pig-raising enterprises in the United States has reached 50%. Compared with the centralization of pig industry in the United States, the scale process of pig industry in China is still in the primary stage. In 2020, the top five enterprises in China will slaughter 48.59 million pigs, accounting for 9.22% of the total slaughter of pigs in China. It is a high probability event that China excellent pig enterprises will further enhance their market share in the future.
3. Looking at the pig industry chain in China, although some excellent enterprises have emerged in veterinary drugs, feed, breeding, breeding and slaughter, food and other aspects, compared with the huge pig industry in China, they are still small enterprises, and no one has enough ability to integrate this industry. But we can imagine that in such a fully competitive market, once one or several enterprises occupy a certain market share, it will inevitably greatly enhance their right to speak in the whole industry, and its industrial value is enormous.
4. The clearing of industrial capacity depends not on self-discipline, but on technological progress. I think the essence of the improvement of industrial concentration is the improvement of production technology and production efficiency, and it is the process in which advanced production capacity replaces backward production capacity. Then whoever can always keep ahead in technology is expected to take the lead in completing the process of industrial scale, and whether scale can increase economic benefits is the only criterion for us to judge its success or failure.
5. Compared with the single pig breeding management mode, industry consolidation should be the future development direction of pig enterprises, which can not only effectively stabilize the profit fluctuation brought by the pig cycle, but also improve the added value of products and increase profits by opening up the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain.
I dare not say that the above speculation about the future must be correct, which requires continuous follow-up observation.
I just want to say that when we come to a conclusion, we still have to look at it from different angles in order to get as close to the truth as possible.