Wei Yan's plan to attack Guanzhong mainly has two versions:
"Wei Lue" records: "Xia Houmao is General Anxi, whose town is Chang 'an. Bright among Nanzheng and his ministers, Yan said,' I heard that Xiahou Taizu was young and my husband was timid and hopeless. Today, 5,000 elite soldiers will be delayed and 5,000 grain will be lost. Let's go straight from Baochu, follow the Qinling Mountains to the east, and go north at noon. We can reach Chang 'an on the 10th. Mao Wen Yanyan is here. It is more astringent than the East. Bright for this county, it is better to be safe from the road, and you can take Longyou Ping, and everything will be safe without delay. "
The biography of the Three Kingdoms, Wei Yan, records: "Every time there is an extension, thousands of soldiers will be invited, and Han Xin's affairs will be shown in Tongguan, but not allowed. Procrastination is often called light as timidity, sighing and hating yourself, endless. "
The first half of the two versions are roughly the same, with more than 10,000 light soldiers leaving the meridian valley at high speed and blitzkrieg attacking Guanzhong, but the difference is the second half: the first version is to plan to occupy Chang 'an front line, and Zhuge Liang's main force comes out of the oblique valley, with the goal of winning the Guanzhong area west of Xianyang in one fell swoop; The second version is to seize the natural barrier of Tongguan, keep Wei Jun reinforcements out of the customs, cut off the internal and external links between Cao Wei and Tongguan, and Zhuge Liang mainly cleared the Cao Wei heavily armed group stationed in Guanzhong, thus occupying the whole Guanzhong area.
Prior to this, most articles and materials thought that the first version was Wei Yan's plan, but it was not, for the following reasons:
1, the first military version was unreasonable, so it was widely criticized. Because according to the first version, Wei Yan's plan, even if it was completely successful, only controlled the western half of Guanzhong. As soon as Wei Jun, reinforced from the Central Plains, arrives, he will surely launch a decisive battle with the Shu army in the plain area near Chang 'an, which is very unfavorable to the Shu army who is good at fighting in complex terrain.
2. Chang 'an has no danger to defend except Tongguan and Wuguan. For Wei Yan, who has been through many battles and experienced in actual combat, it is not clear what will be the result of the decisive battle between the light infantry of Shu and the heavy infantry of Wei Jun.
3. Once the Guanzhong area becomes a battlefield, neither side can rely on the local grain and grass supply, and the grain and grass of 100,000 Shu troops need to cross the Qinling Mountains from Hanzhong to supply. And Wei Jun can rely on the Weihe River to supply from Hedong and the Central Plains, which is more convenient (when Cao Cao attacked the Guanzhong Ma Chao Han Sui Group, he relied on the grain and grass of Hedong), so the Shu army will not last long;
3. Wei Yan's original intention is to carry out this campaign according to the model of Han Xin in the Western Han Dynasty, which should include the whole Guanzhong area. (This will be discussed in historical comparison.)
Chang 'an is the old capital of Western Han Dynasty, one of the capitals of Wei State and the seat of Yongzheng State. After several generations of emperors in Han Dynasty, including Dong Zhuo, Li Jue, Zhong You, etc., the wall of Chang 'an City is 80 miles in circumference, which is a well-known fortified city. Even if Wei Yan was defeated or drove Wei Shoujun away to occupy Chang 'an, it was already weakened. How can he keep it?
5. Even if Wei Yan captured Chang 'an, he could only cut off Wei Jun's retreat in Guanzhong, and could not stop the reinforcements. If he wants to stop Cao Wei's army in the Central Plains, he must control Tongguan, so that he can completely gain control of the whole Guanzhong.
Therefore, the first version of Wei Yan's plan is very unreasonable from a military point of view. The second version of Wei Yan's plan completely avoided these problems. So I think the plan of attacking Guanzhong recorded in the Biography of Wei Yan in Three Kingdoms is the real plan that Wei Yan put forward to Zhuge Liang-the second version, which is more in line with military and historical laws.
The plan is: sneak attack on Guanzhong-arrive at Chang 'an with light infantry at high speed, move eastward quickly without attacking Chang 'an, and seize Tongguan, Wuguan and other dangerous places from behind. Zhuge Liang's main corps will go out of the inclined valley to attack all parts of Guanzhong, meet Woods Valley troops as soon as possible, and stick to Tongguan, Wuguan and other dangerous places to seize the whole Guanzhong and Longxi and keep the enemy out of Tongguan.
Therefore, the Wei Yan Plan we are talking about below refers to the second version of the Wei Yan Plan recorded in the Biography of Wei Yan in the Three Kingdoms.
Advantages and disadvantages of the plan
These two plans refer to Zhuge Liang Plan and Wei Yan Plan.
Strategically:
Zhuge Liang's plan is to seize Longyou first, commanding, and then develop according to the situation later; Wei Yan's plan was to seize Guanzhong directly and lay the foundation for the restoration of the Han Dynasty.
If Shu's strategic goal is to recover the Han Dynasty, then the first task that must be completed is to destroy Wei in the Central Plains. Then there is the great cause of reunifying China.
Historically, China was Zhou (Western Zhou), Qin, Han, Sui and Tang Tongyi based on Guanzhong, while the former Qin unified northern China based on Guanzhong. There are no people who are based in Sichuan or Longyou to unify China or the north (in fact, it is difficult to develop in Sichuan).
Longyou is inferior to Guanzhong area in population, economic development and threat to the Central Plains, so the fall of Guanzhong dealt a more serious blow to Wei. Han Xin's secret capture of Guanzhong is a good illustration.
Therefore, in order to realize the strategic goal of reunifying China after the restoration of Han Dynasty, Wei Yan's plan is relatively aggressive, while Zhuge Liang's plan is relatively steady and passive. This has also been proved from historical reality.
Tactically:
Wei Yan's plan can be a quick victory in a short time, and then disperse some troops to defend Tongguan, Wuguan, Pubanjin Yellow River Ferry and other dangerous places to ensure the safety of Guanzhong and prevent Wei Jun's main force from rapidly reinforcing. Because the troops in Longyou and Hexi areas of Wei are few and scattered, they can be divided step by step. One more thing, capturing Chang 'an, the old capital of the Han Dynasty, is a great boost to the morale of the Shu army with the ultimate goal of reviving the Han Dynasty, which is quite ideal for the Shu country with weak national strength and insufficient troops;
And Zhuge Liang's plan, because of the long distance, takes a long time, so that Wei Jun can buy time to constantly reinforce the troops to the Guanzhong heavy group. And Longyou's defense is not easy. In addition to the positive Longshan Pass, there is a circuitous route of Gaoping in the north and Wudu in the south, all of which may be attacked by Wei Jun, which is bound to fall into a passive situation of long-term fighting, which is by no means a good tactical choice for the Shu army with a long transportation line.
Adventure:
Zhuge Liang's plan seems quite sure. This is a safe and reliable plan. However, the battlefield situation is changing rapidly. From the historical reality, Zhuge Liang's so-called best laid plans never had the hope of complete success in the five northern expeditions from 228 to 234. Even the most successful first Northern Expedition, because Wei Jun's main forces, Cao Zhen, Zhang He and Guo Huai Group, have arrived in Guanzhong, even if Ma Su didn't lose the street pavilion, it will launch a long-term tug-of-war and war of attrition with Wei Jun in Longyou. Obviously, the transportation line of the Shu army from Hanzhong to Longyou is too long to support such a long battle. The end result is likely to be the same as that of Xiao Wei in the Eastern Han Dynasty-losing Longyou.
Wei Yan's seemingly adventurous plan, although risky, can rely on the natural hazards of Tongguan, Wuguan and Pubanjin Ferry to defend Guanzhong once it is successful. At this time, Guanzhong will become a reliable new supply base for the Shu army, and it will no longer rely on the Hanzhong base in southern Shaanxi to cross the Qinling Mountains for supply, and the most troublesome grain and grass problem for the Shu army will be solved.
Therefore, in comparison, even if Zhuge Liang's plan is successful, there is no hope of final victory, and once Wei Yan's plan is successful, it can be said that the plan to restore the Han Dynasty has been half completed.
key factor
What are the necessary conditions to realize Wei Yan's plan?
1, tactical surprise. Taking advantage of the paralysis thought caused by the fact that the Shu army did not take any military action on the northern line five years after Liu Bei's death, and that Zhang Fei, Huang Zhong, Ma Chao and other famous Shu military generals died in succession, they fully prepared the secret work of the campaign and launched a surprise attack in the form of blitzkrieg.
2. speed Concealed to make all preparations, high-speed invasion, grab important strategic points and leakages as planned before the arrival of Wei Jun reinforcements, and keep Wei Jun out of Guanzhong;
Zhuge Liang took out the map of Qishan.
3. Wu's cooperation. Using Lu Xun, Zhu Ran and the Group of Wu to launch a massive attack on Xiapi, Hefei, Xiangyang and other important towns along the river (or jointly plan with them), Wei Jun's strategic mobile forces moved eastward and had no time to take care of the west, so it was difficult for Wei Jun to mobilize heavy troops to make a strong counterattack in a short time;
4. Before Zhuge Liang came out of Qishan, the defensive force in Guanzhong area of Wei State was not strong, and Cao Zhen and Zhang He Group were still defending Wu Dong in Xiangyang, which could ensure that the Shu army commandos quickly achieved their campaign goals and avoided falling into stalemate or being repelled by Wei Shoujun;
5. Shu army concentrated the most elite troops and the most powerful command force. Do not hesitate. We must make a quick decision and win the first world war, otherwise there will be no such fighter.
So, does the Shu army have the above five conditions? The analysis is as follows:
The third and fifth conditions depend entirely on Shu and alliance, which I believe can be achieved through hard work;
1 The conditions mainly depend on the Shu army itself. Because there are relatively few exits in Hanzhong, it is easy to block information, especially in the final stage of campaign preparation, which should be confidential. The meridian valley that Wei Yan's light soldiers walked through was sparsely populated and there was no detour. As long as you send plainclothes reconnaissance teams and agents to clean up and secretly block the road, you can ensure that your opponent will not know until the troops leave Meridian Valley.
The second condition depends mainly on the Shu army itself, and partly on the help of heaven-don't rain (you know, the plan of Cao Zhen Third Road Army to encircle Hanzhong was ruined because of a heavy rain). Because the Shu army is based on a large-scale mountain corps, it should be its basic skill to March quickly in the Qinling Mountains. In general, it is possible to March quickly according to the plan;
The fourth condition mainly depends on the enemy, partly influenced by the smoke screen of the Shu army before the war. But as long as the previous conditions (especially the first one) are perfect, Wei Jun will not be aware of the Shu army's attempt, let alone send more troops or change coaches.
Possibility of success
If the above five conditions are fully met, Wei Yan's plan is likely to succeed:
Zhuge Liang can choose to launch this campaign when the Wu Group, which is heavily besieged on the eastern front, attacks, or he can set a joint attack time with Lu Xun of Wu before the war, just like the fifth Northern Expedition. As a result, Wei Jun's strategic mobile corps in Luoyang and Xuchang are likely to be transferred to the eastern front. When the Shu army is launched on the western front, the Wei Jun Mobile Corps will need to turn around and go west again, and the time in Wei Jun will be greatly increased.
At that time, the Shu army had concentrated nearly 100 thousand troops to participate in the attack. Coupled with years of material preparation and solid rear area, as well as Wei Yan, Zhao Yun, Wu Yi, Gao Xiang and Wang Ping, it can be said that Cao Wei's Guanzhong defenders are in absolute advantage.
According to Wei Yan's plan to stay in Hanzhong for ten years, it takes 10 days for the Shu Light Army to reach Chang 'an through the Meridian Valley. The distance from Chang 'an to Tongguan is about130km, which is 370 Li Han. According to Sima Yi's marching speed of eight days 1200 Li Han when he defeated Mengda, you can walk 150 Li Han on average every day if you March in an emergency. In this way, Wei Yantuan should be able to reach Tongguan Line in about three days. If Wei Yanjun plays in Chang 'an for three days (as long as the Chang 'an defenders are repelled or scared out), it will not take more than eight days to Tongguan, but it will take more than ten days for Wei Jun reinforcements to arrive at the earliest (including three days for Chang 'an to report to Luoyang, and Wei Jun 1 day to discuss countermeasures, two days to concentrate on mobilizing troops, and four to five days for Tongguan to Luoyang). Because Tongguan was in the mainland of Wei, there were no garrison troops at ordinary times, and it was a sneak attack behind Tongguan, so the time could be shortened.
Zhuge Liang's main force will also be able to move from Gu Jie to Guanzhong in about 20 days (it should be a light army of the former army, which has not completed the siege task), and some troops can be left behind, and may continue to camp in important places such as Chencang, Meicheng, Wugong and Chang 'an. The main force will move eastward quickly, meet Wei in Tongguan, and then divide the troops into Pubanjin Ferry in the north and Wuguan in the south, blocking the other two passages into Guanzhong. At this point, all the plans for tackling key problems in North China have been completed.
The only remaining question is: How many troops are there in An Wei's army in Chang 'an, who is the commander, and will they stick to Chang 'an?
According to Wei Yan's pre-war reconnaissance, Wei Changan's commander-in-chief was General Anxi Xia Houmao:
The biography of the reflection of Xia Houdun records: "Dun Di Lian and Zi Su Mao were vassals themselves. At the beginning, Mao married his wife Mao, namely qinghe princess. Li Mao is a general of Shizhong, Shangshu, Anxi and Zhendong, and is on vacation. "
"Wei Lue" records: "The word forest, Dunzhong also. Wendi was not very close to Mao, and after he ascended the throne, he thought that General Anxi was in charge of Guanzhong area in summer. Mao has no military strategy, but is good at dealing with the world. "
"Wei Lue" also recorded: "Bright in Nanzheng to discuss with the ministers, delay: I heard that Xiahou Taizu was young, and his husband was also timid. ..... Mao Wenyan to, will take a boat to escape. In Chang 'an, there are only Yushi and Jingzhao. "
Thus, Wei Changan Shoujiang is the emperor's son-in-law, never led troops to fight, hated military affairs, and had no strategy. He was sent here as an official because he was quiet on the western front. Such a general, once the Shu army suddenly appeared at the gates of Chang 'an, must be in a hurry. Where can he organize effective defense and counterattack? We can also know from Wei's later reaction that Wei got Zhuge Liang's voice coming out of the inclined valley and immediately replaced the commander-in-chief of Chang 'an with Cao Zhen.
How many troops does Wei Jun have in Chang 'an? According to Wei Lue, "At first, Liu Bei was the only country in Shu. When you are ready to die, you are silent for a few years, so you are slightly prepared; The death revealed that both the ruling and the opposition were afraid, especially Longyou and Qishan, so the three counties should light up at the same time. "
Because Wei did not expect the Shu army to attack at all, the defensive force in Guanlong area was very weak. Basically, local troops in counties guard towns, but there are basically no mobile field troops. The Guanzhong area along the Qinling Mountains focuses on Chencang, Meicheng, Wugong and Chang 'an. If there are 1 ~ 2,000 people in the first three towns and 5,000 people in Chang 'an, it is estimated that only110,000 people will survive on this line. However, due to the scattered deployment, it is difficult to counter the blitzkrieg of the Shu army. In addition, the northern counties will have 5,000 to 1 10,000 troops to guard against the intrusion of Qiang cavalry and other counties.
Therefore, only five or six thousand people can be used to counter Wei Yanjun's capping in Chang 'an, which is why Wei Yan dared to attack Chang 'an with five thousand light troops. Otherwise, if Chang 'an's military strength exceeds 10000, I'm afraid Wei Yan's tired division will be eaten up at the gates of Chang 'an.
Wei defeated the defenders of Chang 'an with the main force, leaving 5,000 people behind. He led 5000 elite troops eastward to seize Tongguan and other places, and used the food of local people as supplies, so it was impossible to starve to death in a short time. In this way, Wei Yan's plan was successfully realized, and Guanzhong returned to Shu, laying the cornerstone of the great cause of reunification.
In fact, the key here is Wei Jun, commander of Chang 'an. If it is Cao Zhen, Zhang He, Sima Yi and others, they will not stay in the city, but concentrate their forces out of the city, keep a distance from Wei and contain Wei Yan, that is, they will not fight, and they will not be allowed to move eastward smoothly, nor will they be allowed to collect food and gain time.
But Xiahou Mao won't have such ability, and the only hope is that Guo Huai will help him command. Even so, Wei Yan still has the possibility of success, that is, sacrificing the troops with negative grain to go up, stalking the Guo Huai Corps, and his own elite troops quickly marched eastward to seize Tongguan.
Therefore, I think Wei has a great possibility of success.
Some people worry that Wei Jun will ambush in the Meridian Valley, which is a fear of lack of basic military common sense: First of all, the premise of the Shu army is secrecy, and Wei Jun cannot ambush in advance; The meridian valley is extremely steep, and both sides are either cliffs or precipices, so it is impossible for large troops to ambush.
Some people think that the meridian valley is in Wei territory. In fact, from the map, Ziwu Valley is on the side of Shu, but it is close to Wei Xing County. When Wei Yan made a plan, Meng Da didn't object (later Sima Yi and Enemy at the Gates didn't have time to rebel), and Wei Xingjun was always in the hands of Shen Dan and Shen Yi brothers. Wei Yan certainly had to consider this situation when making plans.
Others worry that Zhuge Liang's army will not be able to get out of the inclined valley within 20 days. Note that Zhuge Liang ran so slowly in the fifth Northern Expedition because he didn't need to worry, because he and Wu agreed to attack at the same time and walk slowly, so Wei would focus on attacking Wu. This is also a matter of military common sense.
Others worry that Wei Jun will attack Hanzhong from Xincheng and Wei Xing County. It can be said that it is unlikely. Because the new city and other places to Hanzhong are also high mountains and valleys, and the road is dangerous, it is difficult for Wei Jun to mobilize large troops in a short time and prepare for the attack. Even in 228, Zhuge Liang suddenly attacked Qishan, and three counties responded. Wei was in a critical situation and Hanzhong was empty, and Wei Jun did not make any movement in this direction. What's more, Sima Yizheng led more than 40,000 troops and just annexed Mengda in the new city.
Why did Wei Yan plan the Meridian Valley? We know that the oblique valley is much easier to walk than the meridian valley. That's because only the Meridian Valley can suddenly appear near Chang 'an and arrive at Tongguan before Chang 'an troops, because the Meridian Valley is the shortest path from Hanzhong to Tongguan-Wei Yan's plan is to seize the natural barrier of Tongguan.
Comparison of similar war cases
The most successful example of Hanzhong attacking Guanzhong in history is Wei Yan's attempt to imitate Han Xin's plan to build a plank road. We know that the success of this campaign made Liu Bang completely occupy the Guanzhong area. Relying on Guanzhong's favorable geographical position and solid economic foundation, Liu Bang defeated the invincible overlord and unified China (of course, there are many factors).
Let's make a comparative analysis:
1, strength comparison
Guanzhong troops to Hanzhong troops:
Liu Bang period: 50,000 Han troops (30,000 brought into Hanzhong and 20,000 developed); There are 50,000 three kings in Guanzhong (including nearly 30,000 Zhang Han in Wang Yong and a little more than 0/0000 in Wang Sai Sima Xin and Zhai Wangyi). The strength comparison is 1 to 1.
During the Three Kingdoms period: Zhuge Liang's army was 80,000-90,000 (Wei Yan 1 10,000 sneak attack, Zhuge Liang's army was 70,000-80,000); There are 10000 Wei Jun in Guanzhong, and the total number of soldiers in the northern county is about 20000. Strength comparison is 4.5 pairs 1.
(The above figures of Han Xin's forces are quoted from the History of China War, and the forces of the Three Kingdoms refer to the comments on Zhuge Liang's first Northern Expedition. )
2. Suddenness:
There were unexpected situations in Hanzhong during these two periods, among which Liu Bang took the initiative to make more, and the Three Kingdoms period naturally formed.
3. Contain:
Liu Bangshi, because the state of Qi opposed Xiang Yu, Xiang Yu's army was trapped in Shandong and it was difficult to move westward for a while. Coupled with the role of Sean's paralyzing letter, Liu Bang won enough time to occupy Guanzhong.
During the Three Kingdoms period, Zhuge Liang could make full use of Wu's strength to attract Wei Jun Mobile Corps to the Eastern Front, but in contrast, Wei Jun's reinforcements would be much faster than Xiang Yu's westward advance.
4. Tactics:
Han Xin adopted the tactics of not being held back by the enemy's crux. Concentrate on the main force to break the blocked enemy lines, except for leaving some troops to besiege Zhang Han, which stuck to the abandoned hilly city, the main force quickly moved eastward to Tongguan and Wuguan, completing the whole strategic deployment (leaving Chencang in August of that year, occupying Tongguan at the end of the month, and even leaving Wuguan). Even if Xiang Yu goes west soon, it is impossible to break through Guanzhong. Then gradually conquer those besieged castles inside:
Three months later, we attacked Longxi; After half a year, attack and pull the north and capture Zhang Ping. 10 months later, the abandoned hill was captured, and then the whole Guanzhong area was completely occupied. This is already after Liu Bang came back from Peng Cheng's crushing defeat.
So Wei Yan's plan is to learn from Han Xin. After entering Guanzhong, he was in no hurry to occupy Chang 'an and other big towns. Instead, he seized Tongguan and Wuguan, cut off internal and external ties, and then came back to slowly clean up those towns that he stuck to. What's more, many towns saw being cut off and surrounded, and many responded to surrender (for example, when Zhuge Liang left Nan 'an, Tianshui and Anding County in Qishan). I believe that Wei Yan's 5000 elite soldiers should be able to break through the possible sniper near Chang 'an (also 5000 people).
5, the power of the rear
Zhuge Liang is the actual controller of Hanzhong, Sichuan. He has ruled for many years. Compared with Bashu in the late Qin Dynasty, it should be said that his economic strength is stronger, only stronger than Liu Bang.
In contrast, we can find that the situation in these two periods is very similar, with only two differences:
1, Xiang Yu was pinned down by Tian Rong, the king of Qi, and could not get away quickly. Han Xin did not send troops to seize Tongguan; Wei Jun Mobile Corps is near Luoyang, and it is likely to reinforce Guanzhong quickly, so Wei Yan's plan must seize Tongguan to stop Wei's reinforcements.
2. Han Xin faced a similar garrison in Guanzhong, so Han Xin concentrated his forces on it, and then planned to advance to Tongguan and Wuguan after victory; Zhuge Liang's army is much stronger than Wei Guanzhong's defenders. It's not difficult to eliminate these scattered guarding cities in Wei Jun, but time is critical and we need to divide our troops into multiple ways.
Zhuge Liangjun is superior to Han Xinjun in all aspects, but the only shortcoming is that Wei Jun's reinforcements will be much faster than Xiang Yu's. Therefore, as long as Wei Yanjun can complete the task of seizing Tongguan and other places as planned, the campaign will be successful.
As if to complete the task of closing the door and beating the dog, Wei Yan's task is to close and lock the "door" of Tongguan at all costs; As for the task of beating dogs, Zhuge Liang's army is really cool.
If the ancient example doesn't work, let's take a modern example: 1950 In the second campaign to resist U.S. aggression and aid Korea, the 38th Army of the Volunteers undertook Wei's task (Wei's task was somewhat strategic), that is, suddenly and secretly captured the enemy's rear Sanli and Longyuanli, cut off the enemy's retreat, stopped American reinforcements and fought a battle to catch thieves behind closed doors. With the victory of the 38th Army, Peng couldn't help calling it "Long live the army".
In fact, if this campaign is really successful, it is estimated that guderian's blitzkrieg theory will take this classic example as the standard.
The final conclusion
Therefore, according to the above historical data and analysis, we can think that:
1, the center of Wei Yan's plan is to seize Tongguan and then occupy the whole Guanzhong area, not to seize Chang 'an and occupy the area west of Xianyang. The plan recorded in the biography of Wei Yan of the Three Kingdoms conforms to the basic military laws.
2. Wei Yan Plan is the best plan for Shu to conquer the strong with the weak and even unify the Central Plains (and even the whole of China);
3. Wei Yan's plan had great hope of success at that time, but the risk was not very high;
4. Wei Yan's plan, as a successful plan in World War I, has certain risks, but even if it fails, it will only lose tens of thousands of people, and it will not lose Zhuge Liang's main corps, nor will it endanger the overall security of Shu;
The battlefield situation is changing rapidly, and there is no perfect military plan at all. In order to complete the great cause of recovering the Han Dynasty, such a risk is worth taking. What's more, even Zhuge Liang called it a seamless plan to take Longyou Ping. Isn't it the result of the defeat of Jieting and the loss of more than 20,000 people?
This conclusion may be that Zhuge Liang's friends are unhappy, but no matter what reason Zhuge Liang did not implement this plan (he was cautious and would not suddenly attack and suppress Wei Yan), it would not affect Zhuge Liang's greatness and wisdom. (If Ziya and Han Xin are resurrected, we must use this plan. If it is difficult, it is much lower than Deng Aiqi's attack on Chengdu Li Jing and Xiang Ping. )
4 infeasibility theory
The most important question is whether Wei Yan can win Chang 'an in a short time, otherwise he may be surrounded by Guo Huai, the secretariat of Yongzhou, who is closely related to him, and Kanto reinforcements from Ma Pingchuan at any time in the confrontation.
Secondly, whether Wei Yan can hold on to Zhuge Liang's reinforcements after winning Chang 'an depends on the situation of Guo Huai and Kanto reinforcements.
Necessary conditions of strategy
(1) Wei Yan started from praise, went along the East Qinling Mountains, entered the Meridian Valley, and went along the Meridian Valley to Chang 'an. This March must be completed within 10 days. Zhuge Liang's army must arrive in Chang 'an (or Tongguan) from Gu Jie to meet Wei Yan within 20-30 days.
Analysis: This condition is very harsh. The meridian passage, with a total length of more than 300 kilometers, is confronted by mountains on both sides, and the water in the middle is swift. In this road condition, it is difficult for cars to move at full speed, let alone people leave, and the whole meridian passage depends on the plank road on Xiuyan. If there are many shortcomings, it will take a lot of time to repair them, which will seriously affect the marching speed. In this case, can Wei Yan, the ten thousand people, guarantee to cross the Meridian Valley and reach the gate of Chang 'an within 10 days? I'm afraid there's a big question mark. In the same way, Zhuge Liang's army set out from the inclined valley and took the plank road, facing the same problems as Wei Yan. Can it reach Chang 'an in 30 days? Obviously, it is also an unknown number.
In fact, two years later, Cao Zhen attacked Shu and took the meridian road. "It will rain for more than 30 days, or the plank road will be broken." "Ye Zhen's trip for more than a month is only half a valley, and the hero knows how to do it." -Cao Zhen only walked half the way in ten days, and its difficulty can be imagined!
Xiahou Mao, the commander-in-chief of Cao Wei's Chang 'an, heard of the arrival of soldiers and fled the city.
Analysis: Although Xiahou Mao is timid and has no plan, will he be timid enough to "escape by boat as soon as he hears the election"? What if he stays in the city instead of running away? You know, Chang 'an is no ordinary small city, and its defense is bound to be very strong. Besides, Guo Huai, the famous Cao Wei, is close at hand. Xia Houmao insisted, and Guo Huai came to the rescue as quickly as possible. Aren't Wei Yan's troops wrapped up in jiaozi?
(3) When Xiahou Mao fled, he had to leave a lot of food.
Analysis: It has been analyzed before, and Xiahou Mao is unlikely to go with the wind. To say the least, even if Xiahou Mao really ran away, would he burn the food in Hengmen Emperor Pavilion conveniently? You know, when Cao Cao hit Zhang Lu, Zhang Wei had this idea.
(4) Cao Wei's Kanto reinforcements will not arrive in Chang 'an until 20 days later.
Analysis: Is this judgment reliable? As the saying goes, soldiers are expensive and fast, which is a well-known military principle. Wei Yan's view that "it takes 20 days to get together with the East" is only based on common sense estimation. But military activities should not stick to common sense. Let's say Sima Yiping Mengda, regardless of the distance. Meng Da estimated that Sima could arrive in the new town in less than a month. But what happened? Sima arrived in just 8 days, and was caught off guard. Besides, Wei Jun is from Guandong to Guanzhong, with convenient transportation and Ma Pingchuan. Zhuge Liang's army will take the thousands of miles plank road in the inclined valley. How to ensure to arrive in Chang 'an before the Kanto reinforcements? One thousand left behind, Wei Jun just ate Wei Yan first, then blocked the news, and earlier and earlier, Zhuge Liang's main corps was fished out of Xiegu Road, so they got together. After that, the consequences were unimaginable. If so, Zhuge Liang's main army will be wiped out, while Cao Wei can cross the Qinling Mountains and win directly to Chengdu, while Chengdu will be bloodless, and Shu Han will perish decades ahead of schedule!
From the political point of view of Shu Han at that time, we can see that Zhuge Liang completely controlled the sovereignty of Liu Chan in his own hands at that time. Once Zhuge Liang captures Chang 'an, Shu Han will definitely move to Chang 'an. Zhuge Liang's series of actions will make the world think that Zhuge Liang of Shu Han will be the second Cao Cao, and the resulting public opinion pressure is enormous. It is impossible for Liu Chan not to know about it. Judging from a series of actions of Liu Chan after Zhuge Liang's death, he was disgusted with Zhuge Liang's thumbtacks. As a wise man, Zhuge Liang will surely foresee that after capturing Chang 'an, the whole Shu Han will be on the verge of bankruptcy because of himself. In order to continue the Shu Han Dynasty, Zhuge Liang had to make a strategic plan to go west to Longyou, hoping that he would continue the Northern Expedition and the Northern Expedition would be defeated repeatedly. His bottom line is that he can't capture Chang 'an, because Zhuge Liang is very clear about the consequences of capturing Chang 'an and what will happen to the court of Shu and Han.
Examples and results
Wen sent Sima Xun out of the meridian valley from Hanzhong, but before he left the valley, he was defeated by the former Qin army led by Fu Xiong, and Sima Xun escaped from the meridian valley, which led to the failure of Huan Wen's two-way attack plan.
Sun Chuanting, Ming Jiang, against Gao Yingxiang, king of the peasant uprising army.
Today, Gao Yingxiang went out of Sichuan into Shaanxi, crossed Hanzhong and took the Meridian Valley. Sun Chuanting ambushed Gao Yingxiang's main force (at least 50,000) with recruits (up to 20,000) recruited for four months. As a result of the battle, Gao Yingxiang was basically wiped out, and I was injured and captured.
In the An Incident, Wang intended to surprise Zhang Xueliang in the Ziwu Valley, and was forced to turn back after marching for three days for two reasons: "First, the environment in the valley was too sinister and there was no water source. Second, during the March, I learned that the Xi 'an incident had been settled peacefully, and I was discharged from the army. But even if he did break through, I'm afraid the end will not be better than Sima Yi and Gao Yingxiang, because Zhang Xueliang had already noticed it at that time. Although he was startled, he sent troops to stall Taniguchi in time.