Any city, like a living body, is interdependent and competitive in the ecological circle composed of many cities.
In this increasingly fierce competition, what are the key words for the future development of China?
This paper attempts to sort out, summarize and analyze from the perspective of historical evolution and capital.
one
In 20 10, the city with the highest per capita GDP in China was Karamay. The per capita GDP of this northwest oil town is 1.98 times that of Shenzhen and 2.58 times that of Beijing.
Only five years later, the per capita GDP of this small town has almost been tied by Shenzhen, and the gap with Beijing has also narrowed to 1.6 times. In the past five years, the first-tier cities along the eastern coast have maintained steady development, while the GDP of Karamay has dropped from 70 billion in 20 10 to 67 billion in 20 15.
This stagnation and shrinkage is the epitome of the fate of many inland resource-based cities, which is largely attributed to the sharp drop in the prices of oil, coal and steel.
The population growth is stagnant, the demand for real estate is stagnant, the industrialization engine of the whole inland has rusted, and the future of third-and fourth-tier cities is not optimistic.
In this context, in order to seek better development, many young people in third-and fourth-tier cities began to migrate to first-and second-tier cities on a large scale.
two
20 16 National Spring Festival travel rush Peak Flow Map
This is a population flow map of Spring Festival travel rush, China, based on the migration big data of Spring Festival travel rush peak in 20 16.
This spectacular picture not only depicts the largest migration activity of human beings so far, but more importantly, everyone depicts the status, grades, relationships and entanglements of various cities in China with their own footprints and choices.
But this paper does not look at this problem from the perspective of people, but from the perspective of capital (money). If population is the vein of a city, then capital is its artery.
To study the capital flow between cities, it is very noteworthy that "the cross-city capital flow between enterprises".
The data in the following data map is the national 1. 1 100 million enterprise full sample database provided by Qixinbao, which searches the investment and financing information of all enterprises in China in recent five years (2013.1-2017.6), and can be used as a reference.
Through the data, we can establish the national urban topological relationship network of intercity investment, and we can see the control center of China's intercity industrial capital, that is, the urban network centered on "going north and going deep".
As can be seen from the figure, in the whole relationship network, "going north and going deep" is constantly moving to the center, excluding other cities. We can also put these cities on the map and build a national cross-city capital flow map:
Diamond map of urban capital flow
We can clearly see that the three highlights are: Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration, Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration and Beijing-Tianjin wing urban agglomeration. These three urban agglomerations and the urban agglomerations in western Chengdu and Chongqing form a diamond shape, and only the northeast and the west have several bright spots.
The capital flow in this big diamond accounts for more than 90% of the national capital flow.
Next, where does the money come from?
On this list, "Beishangguangshen" ranks in the top three, and the total amount of capital outflows far exceeds that of other cities. It can be said that "going north to Shenzhen" has guided and controlled the country's capital flow and economic lifeline to a certain extent through a series of foreign investments.
Hangzhou ranked fourth, breaking the solidified concept of "North to Guangzhou and Shenzhen" and its performance was the most eye-catching. (Followed by Tianjin, Nanjing, Ningbo, Suzhou and Chengdu), five of them are cities in the Yangtze River Delta region, which shows the active degree of capital in the Yangtze River Delta region.
So, which cities did the money flow to?
As can be seen from the above figure, the top three companies that attract the most foreign-controlled investment are "Beishangguangshen". Compared with the investment ranking, Ningbo grabbed the fourth place, surpassing Hangzhou.
It is worth noting that in the list of foreign capital inflow cities, Jiaxing has squeezed out Nanjing and entered the top ten, which shows that Jiaxing is favored by capital.
three
Next, we turn our attention to third-and fourth-tier cities. As mentioned above, the future of third-and fourth-tier cities does not seem so bright, so what is their future direction? What are the prospects?
According to combing the economic growth and industrial structure changes of the former 100 cities with GDP of 2016 in recent five years, we can draw the following views.
A declining city
100 cities, there are 10 cities whose GDP growth rate is lower than that of Shanghai (the slowest in the first line), accounting for 10%. Most of them are resource-based cities in the north, including Karamay, Daqing, Tieling and Anshan.
A rising city
Among 100 cities, there are 13 cities whose GDP growth rate is higher than that of Shenzhen (the fastest in the first line), surpassing the declining resource cities. This shows that in the past five years, the overall development speed of third-and fourth-tier cities is not slower than that of first-tier cities.
Quite strange, many of them are inland small and medium-sized cities, so where does their development motivation come from?
If you want to solve the mystery, you can find at least four reasons:
1, supported by the state
These lucky people are the fulcrum of the national strategy, and a large amount of funds are surging, and the transportation infrastructure is getting faster and faster. For example, Zunyi was included in the top ten growth rates.
2, the key to flow
Inland third-tier cities don't rely on the sea and have no ports, so the traffic competitiveness seems weak, but it's not entirely true. For example, Ziyang is close to Chengdu New International Airport; Xianyang is close to Xi 'an Airport and enjoys a strong economic development momentum.
20 12, vipshop took a fancy to Ziyang's location advantage and designated it as the western logistics base. Later, JD.COM, SF and other e-commerce logistics enterprises came and went, and their future development became more and more smooth.
However, the situation mentioned above is a bit difficult to satisfy, and not every city can satisfy it. The real reference depends on the following two kinds.
3. Cost advantage and industrial transfer
The transfer of manufacturing industry from high-cost areas to low-cost areas is an eternal process. As long as the industries in developed cities continue to upgrade, the surrounding small and medium-sized cities will benefit from it and gain a steady stream of development momentum.
For example, among the top 20 cities, there are third-tier cities such as Xiangyang, Suqian and Huai 'an, which are the beneficiaries of industrial transfer.
Xiangyang can be a representative. This small city is located in the north of Hubei Province. It has no resources and is not a transportation center. However, due to the relatively cheap labor resources and land resources, Dongfeng Nissan took a fancy to it and settled the production lines of Teana and Britain and finidi, thus developing a perfect automobile industry ecology.
4. Traditional industries have steadily improved.
Some cities can't get the care of foreign capital. In this case, they can only stand on their own feet. Typical ones are Yichang, Heze and Ningde.
The industrial upgrading of third-and fourth-tier cities is completely different from that of first-and second-tier cities. Due to the lack of educational resources and talent advantages, it is unlikely to be high-tech industries such as the Internet and artificial intelligence. At the same time, due to the lack of political resources and transportation advantages, it is difficult to attract cutting-edge manufacturing.
The upgrading of third-and fourth-tier cities is more based on their traditional industries. For example, phosphorus chemical industry in Yichang, oil refining and chemical industry in Heze and stainless steel in Ningde are all leading industrial clusters in China. Although it is also an industry, unlike those resource industries in the north, its downstream demand direction does not come from real estate. Due to the stable demand dividend and the sustainable extension of the industrial chain, it has played a vital role in promoting the upgrading of local economy.
In short, third-and fourth-tier cities still have obvious cost advantages in industrial development and have great potential.
In addition, third-and fourth-tier cities have a very good development direction-"joining urban agglomerations".
four
This year, the Guangdong Provincial Party Committee and the provincial government put forward the strategy of building the Guangzhou-Shenzhen Science and Technology Innovation Corridor, aiming at building the global "China Silicon Valley" and making it clear that Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Dongguan should earnestly shoulder the main responsibilities. For the first time, the development of Dongguan was planned and promoted on the same platform as Guangzhou and Shenzhen, two national central cities.
This shows that the development of urban agglomerations has become an important trend of urban development in China at present and even in the future.
From the perspective of the country's overall economic development, the government is more willing to let the city group develop, because the urban agglomeration has better realized the stronger agglomeration effect of industrial development resources, and the cities in the group can realize complementary resources and form a more efficient and valuable industrial chain. Drive the economic development of the surrounding second, third and fourth tier cities with the core big cities.
This also means that in the competition pattern of China cities, the group competition of urban agglomerations has gradually become a reality, and it has gradually become fierce and expanded. However, the individual competition among cities still exists and will exist for a long time, because for a single city itself, it needs to compete under the impetus of cooperation to enhance its right to speak and its weight in the future urban pattern.
Therefore, "change+opportunity" is the key word for the future development of China city.
Group comment: There is no future without changing thinking!
Looking back over the past ten years, we find that
2007-20 17 is a special decade! This decade witnessed the peak of China's economic growth, and then quietly fell back! This decade has witnessed the high tide and low tide of economic globalization. This decade has also witnessed the turmoil in the world! This is a decade of integration and the beginning of a new era! Which cities in China have been the most successful in this decade? Which cities failed the most?
First of all, the five most successful cities
1, take off Hefei
Never flowing into provincial capital cities, moving towards new first-tier cities, the frontier strength makes Jinan, a traditional big city, bow down for advice!
2. Crossing Zhengzhou
From second-tier provincial capital cities to national central cities, Zhengzhou metropolitan area has become a national strategy!
3. Inspirational Guiyang
Where there is a will, there is a way. You can fly out of golden phoenix in a ravine! Guiyang is like a dream for ten years!
4. Dream Hangzhou
Did Hangzhou make Alibaba, or did Alibaba make Hangzhou? In short, they go to the world together!
5. Totem Shenzhen
The global manufacturing factory has turned around and become a global technology center! The energy of Shenzhen science and technology innovation enterprise is already controlling global technology!
Second, the five most failed cities.
1, Zombie Shenyang
First-tier cities in the 1970s, second-tier cities in the 1980s and 1990s, and now third-tier cities! Skyscrapers are built hard, and all they create are illusory bubbles!
2. Stupid Jinan
I don't know what I should do or what I can do! The most mediocre provincial capital ...
3. Proud Shanghai
Shanghai is still Shanghai ten years ago, and now Beijing and Shenzhen are not what they used to be! You missed the home appliance era in the 1990s, the network era in the 00s, and the entrepreneurial era in the10s, and finally returned empty-handed! What happens when you create four centers? There are too many centers, and there seems to be no center.
4. Dalian without wisdom
From the altar to the heatable adobe sleeping platform! International Dalian, the scenery is no longer, and the wind blowing from the northeast is a little cold?
5. ignorant Lanzhou
Others build tall buildings, I also build tall buildings, others build subways, I also build subways, and urban industries are hollowed out. Do you think it's weird?