The core data of this paper: cruising range distribution, energy density distribution, ternary material performance index, production and sales volume, market share and cost structure of new energy vehicles.
New energy vehicle market: the demand for high cruising range is growing rapidly, and the increase of battery energy density is an inevitable trend.
In recent years, the new energy vehicle market has exploded. With the listing of mid-to high-end new energy vehicles, cruising range has become an important parameter to measure the efficiency of new energy vehicles. According to the research data of Lithium Battery, the proportion of new energy vehicles listed in 2065 438+09-2020 and vehicles with high cruising range in China has increased rapidly. In 20 19 years, the proportion of new energy vehicles with cruising range below 200 kilometers is as high as 7 1%, and it will drop rapidly to14% in 2020; The proportion of new energy vehicles with a cruising range of more than 300 kilometers will increase from about 15% in 20 19 years to more than 60% in 2020. It is predicted that the demand for vehicles with high cruising range will explode in the future.
One of the most effective ways to improve the cruising range of new energy vehicles is to increase the energy density of the battery system. As one of the core materials of lithium battery, cathode material is the decisive factor of electrochemical performance of lithium battery, and plays a leading role in energy density and safety performance of battery. Therefore, driven by the high cruising range demand of new energy vehicles, the improvement of energy density of lithium batteries has become an inevitable trend in the development of cathode material technology.
In 20 19 years, new energy vehicle battery systems with energy density less than 120Wh/kg will occupy more than 70% market share. By 2020, the proportion of new energy vehicles with lithium battery system with energy density greater than 120Wh/kg will reach more than 85%, and 160Wh/kg high energy density battery system has been put on the market in mass production.
The new regulations for lithium batteries require that the state improve the energy density standard of lithium batteries.
202 1118, the Ministry of industry and information technology issued "specifications and conditions of lithium ion battery industry (202 1 version)" (draft for comments) and "measures for the administration of announcement of lithium ion battery industry specifications (2021version) Among them, it is proposed to guide enterprises to reduce manufacturing projects that simply expand production capacity, strengthen technological innovation, improve product quality and reduce production costs, and specifically make the following provisions on the main technical index standards of lithium battery products and related materials:
At present, ternary and lithium ferrous phosphate are basically not restricted by the new regulations. However, for the requirements of monomer energy density, the monomer energy density of mainstream lithium iron phosphate batteries is still around 160Wh/kg, and a considerable number of products can not meet the requirements of the new regulations.
At the same time, the new specification puts forward new requirements for cathode materials: the specific capacity of lithium ferrous phosphate is ≥150 ah/kg; Specific capacity of ternary materials ≥ 175Ah/kg. At present, there is no doubt that ternary 8 series and above high nickel materials meet the standards, but the specific capacity of ternary 5 series and below may not meet the standards in some enterprises, so the ternary lithium battery market is also facing the pressure of increasing energy density.
Performance comparison of mainstream cathode materials: ternary materials have high theoretical specific capacity.
At present, the mainstream cathode materials of lithium batteries are mainly divided into lithium cobaltate, lithium manganate, lithium ferrous phosphate and ternary materials. In contrast, specific capacity, cycle life, cost and safety are the core indicators of cathode materials.
The theoretical specific capacity of ternary materials is as high as 280mAh/g, and the working voltage is close to 3.7V, so the energy density of ternary lithium batteries is theoretically the highest among mainstream lithium batteries at present. As a lithium cobalt oxide battery which can also achieve high energy density, it has been gradually eliminated by the market because of its low safety.
On the whole, in theory, ternary materials have a large space for improving energy density, which is an inevitable choice for the high-end new energy vehicle market driven by the high cruising range demand of new energy vehicles and the new regulations of lithium batteries.
The development status of ternary materials market: the production and sales volume have increased rapidly, and the market share has declined slightly.
-Production and sales of ternary materials
From 2065438+06 to 2020, the output of ternary materials in China is on the rise. In 2020, the output of ternary materials in China will be 2 1 10,000 tons, up 6.6% year-on-year.
From 2065438+06 to 2020, the sales of ternary materials (NCM and NCA) in China continued to rise. In 2020, the sales volume of ternary materials in China was 236,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 22.9%.
-Market share of ternary materials: the proportion of ternary materials declined slightly.
From the shipping structure of cathode materials for lithium batteries in China, the proportion of ternary materials in cathode materials decreased slightly by 6 percentage points to 40% from 20 19 to 202 1, and the proportion of lithium ferrous phosphate increased by 3 percentage points to 25%.
The market share of lithium ferrous phosphate has increased significantly mainly because: first, the cost of lithium ferrous phosphate is lower and the overall cost performance ratio is obvious; At the same time, since 20 19, the mainstream battery enterprises represented by CATL, BYD and Guo Xuan Hi-Tech have developed CTP, blade and JTM technologies respectively, and the energy density of lithium iron phosphate batteries has been improved to some extent. Secondly, compared with ternary materials, lithium ferrous phosphate is safer.
Development trend of ternary materials market: high nickel and low cobalt technology is expected to drive the market share of ternary materials to rebound.
-low cobalt: a way to reduce the cost of ternary materials
In fact, although the cost of ternary battery is higher than that of lithium ferrous phosphate at present, with the innovation of material system, there is still a lot of room for its cost reduction. In the long run, the cost gap between ternary high nickel and lithium ferrous phosphate will become smaller and smaller. According to the calculation of Caitong Securities, it is predicted that the cost of high-nickel batteries will eventually be equivalent to that of lithium ferrous phosphate in 2030.
In the cost of ternary cathode, the cost of raw materials has a significant impact on the price of ternary materials, accounting for more than 90%, especially the price of cobalt, which has been high, and the external dependence of cobalt materials is as high as 90%. At present, the consistent scheme in the industry is to adopt the scheme of high nickel, low cobalt or even no cobalt. For example, compared with NCM523, the cobalt content of NCM8 1 1 battery cathode material decreased from 12.2% to 6. 1%, and the cobalt consumption per kilowatt-hour of power battery decreased from 0.22kg to 0.09kg, which was as high as 59%.
-high nickel: a way to improve the energy density of ternary materials
In the long run, the lithium ferrous phosphate material is limited by the theoretical specific capacity (170mAh/g), and the space for improving the energy density of battery cells is getting smaller and smaller. On the contrary, ternary materials are in the rapid iteration period of technology. From NCM333 to NCM523 to NCM8 1 1, their energy density increases gradually. Compared with the current mainstream NCM523, the energy density of NCM8 1 1 can be increased by about 18%.
At present, nickel ternary cathode materials occupy a dominant position in the market. According to Xinyi information data, in 2020, the output of nickel 5 series ternary materials accounted for 53%; The yield of medium-high nickel 6 series ternary materials accounts for 20%; The output of high nickel 8 series ternary materials accounts for 22%.
In the future, new energy vehicles need higher battery capacity, and high nickel over 600 kilometers is the best choice, and high nickel over 800 kilometers is almost the only choice.
Therefore, the forward-looking view is that with the gradual increase in the demand for cruising range of new energy vehicles, ternary lithium batteries still have a lot of room for growth in the high-end market of new energy. With the increase of energy density and the reduction of cost of ternary materials, the market share is expected to increase in the future, and the market potential of high nickel ternary cathode materials is huge.
For more industry-related data, please refer to Prospective Industry Research Institute's In-depth Investigation and Investment Strategic Planning Analysis Report of China Lithium Battery Cathode Material Industry.