Zhang Dawei, director of the Central Plains real estate market research department, put it more bluntly. He believes that driven by land finance, many third-and fourth-tier cities have provided a large amount of land in the past few years, and there has been a large supply of houses in the near future, which is the "curse" that leads to the surplus of houses in third-and fourth-tier cities.
The disorder of urban planning makes "new cities" blossom everywhere. Recently, Guiyang, Yingkou, Changzhou and other places exposed by the media are all typical cases in which the new town construction drives real estate development, but the lack of follow-up demand has turned the new town into a "ghost town". A number of interviewees told reporters that in the current third-and fourth-tier cities, there are not a few "ghost towns" with a serious surplus of housing. Some people are puzzled by the housing price crisis in third-and fourth-tier cities: the housing price in first-tier cities such as Beijing is often more than 40,000 yuan per square meter, while the housing price in third-and fourth-tier cities is often only 3,000 yuan per square meter, which seems to be far from the traditional standard of "high housing price and high risk"?
In fact, a 20 12 risk ranking of China urban real estate market provided by the research center of Kerui Information Group was released by the media at the end of 20 12, which caused great controversy.
This list shows that there are no first-and second-tier cities in the top 5 0 risks. On the contrary, the risks in first-tier cities are relatively low. Among the 287 cities participating in the assessment, almost all of the top 50 cities are occupied by third-and fourth-tier cities. Third-tier cities with low urbanization level, weak economic strength and obvious oversupply, such as Lhasa, Tai 'an, Baoding and Cangzhou, and fourth-tier cities with 465 and 438+0, are among the top 50 risk intensity. Fourth-tier cities Jiuquan, Hulunbeier and Heihe rank among the top three in China, while Shanghai, Beijing and Shenzhen rank 285th, 286th and 287th respectively. Overall, among the top 50 cities with market risk, 46 cities are located in inland areas, accounting for 92% of the total.
In particular, the report pointed out that the risk of real estate collapse in Ordos, a resource-based city, has aroused great concern in the industry. In recent years, the Ordos real estate market has been over-hyped, with a permanent population of less than 2 million. There is a huge investment bubble in the local real estate market. The land digestion cycle is as long as 9.7 1 year, and the supply-demand ratio is as high as 3. 88. There is a serious oversupply in the market.
However, due to the relatively small real estate market and low housing prices in these areas, it has not received much attention from the outside world. Today, the results of this report seem to be being verified one by one.
Low demand
In the context of high housing prices and restricted purchases in big cities, housing prices in third-and fourth-tier cities once seemed "quite advantageous". Many people who work in big cities have also returned to their hometowns to buy houses or invest at the price of cabbage.
However, with the development of more and more houses, "who to sell the house to" has become the biggest problem.
The poor housing sales in third-and fourth-tier cities are becoming increasingly obvious. According to the report of Zhongyuan Real Estate, the transaction volume of new houses in 25 third-tier cities monitored by the agency was 1 1220 in June this year, which fell for three consecutive months, hitting a new low of half a year. 14 in fourth-tier cities, only 16300 sets of new houses were sold, setting a new low of 1 1 month.
According to industry insiders, the transaction volume of new houses in third-tier cities decreased in June 5438+ 10. Although affected by the Spring Festival, the volume of new houses in third-and fourth-tier cities has been at a low level since 20 13. This is inseparable from the outflow of population and sluggish demand in third-and fourth-tier cities.
According to the research report released by CICC on the 7th, the population of Suzhou City in Anhui Province is about 400,000, and the sales volume of urban real estate houses in 20 13 years is10.5 million square meters, with 2.2 million square meters approved for pre-sale. If it is estimated that the new construction volume will increase by more than 2.5% in 20 14, Suzhou urban area will approve the pre-sale of more than 2.7 million square meters in 20 14, and the risk of oversupply is greater.
According to the report, the real estate market in third-and fourth-tier cities is uneven. At present, 80%-90% of the demand comes from the original urban residents of prefecture-level cities, and the demand for housing brought by farmers entering the city is limited. Overall, in the next two or three years, oversupply will be the biggest problem.
house price fell
After the withdrawal of investment funds in Wenzhou and Erdos property markets and the sharp drop in house prices, the industry is concerned about whether other third-and fourth-tier cities with oversupply problems will also collapse.
"The difference between it and the second-and third-tier cities is that the population density is relatively small, so this indicator is relatively high, resulting in a vast land and a sparse population, a large land supply, an imbalance between supply and demand, and a reversal of supply and demand. Under such circumstances, in these cities, if real estate development is carried out on a large scale, the risk is very great. " Ding Zuyu, chairman of Kerry Information Technology Co., Ltd. also stressed that this does not mean that fourth-tier cities do not need real estate development, but that they should be very cautious when entering. In these cities, limited customer demand, market demand and relatively unlimited land supply constitute the biggest risks in these cities.
Zhang Dawei said that after the extensive and rapid development of the national real estate market in the past 10 years, the differentiated development characteristics of first-,second-and third-tier cities are obvious now, so it is difficult to summarize the national real estate market in the same cycle. In 20 14, third-and fourth-tier cities will face greater risks than in 20 13, and some housing enterprises are gradually withdrawing from third-and fourth-tier cities. Under the pressure of supply inventory, the number of cases of bankruptcy will increase. Experts said that out of awareness of market risks, since last year, many large developers have withdrawn from third-and fourth-tier cities and returned to first-and second-tier cities. At the same time, the withdrawal of real estate fund investment will not only lead to the decline in house prices, but also lead to the emergence of uncompleted residential flats in some cities.
According to the statistics of China Index Academy, the average price of new houses in 100 cities nationwide is 1090 1 yuan/square meter, up 0.63% from the previous month. Among them, house prices in 37 cities decreased month-on-month, 5 cities more than 20 13 and 12. Among the cities with falling house prices, except Xiamen, Wenzhou and Haikou, they are all third-and fourth-tier cities, with Urumqi, Xinxiang and Luoyang among the top losers.
"Investment and Financial Management" special analyst reminded that even if house prices fall, unless there is demand for self-occupation, investors had better not blindly "bargain-hunting" the real estate in third-and fourth-tier cities. Because there are too few migrants in these cities, there is a serious oversupply of houses, which may take a long time to digest.
Story of County C: On the eve of the Spring Festival, Liu Na (pseudonym), who works in a government department in County C, received an important task: 20 14, and had to introduce his relatives or friends to buy at least two new commercial houses in the county. Otherwise, her salary may be suspended. In this county, many civil servants have received similar tasks of selling houses, which has never happened before. With the acceleration of urbanization, a large number of commercial houses have been built in C county, and a considerable number of commercial housing projects are seriously unsalable. Recently, the county has begun to control the scale of new commercial housing, but the digestion of excess housing is still a big problem.
The new "task" of civil servants
As a local, Liu Na has worked in a government department in C County for more than ten years. She told reporters that for the task of selling houses, the unit had a special meeting before the Spring Festival. According to the regulations, the task of selling houses is not aimed at certain designated properties, as long as it is a new house project in the county. Liu Na said that because this was not his "duty", this task was only an oral notice, and no relevant documents were issued. According to the regulations, there is no extra reward for completing or exceeding the task of selling houses. However, those who fail to complete the task before a certain time node may be fined or stopped paying wages. "Selling a house has become our task."
In many government agencies and units in C County, civil servants have received similar "tasks", and different units have different tasks and different punishment measures. According to a civil servant, as long as people eat "county finance", most of them are assigned "tasks".
The situation of "civil servants selling houses" is unprecedented in this county. During the Spring Festival, Liu Na intentionally asked when visiting relatives and friends, but her relatives and friends didn't need to buy a house. Liu Na has no confidence in completing this task. She thinks that the price of houses in the urban area is too high, while many buildings in the suburbs are unreasonable in design and lack of living facilities, so it is difficult to sell them. Just when Liu Na was at his wit's end, the "way to crack" had spread quietly. A staff member of a government department said that in order to complete this task, it is only necessary to negotiate with the sales staff of the project sales office to "buy" their customers at a certain cost and turn them into "relatives and friends" who introduce themselves to buying a house.
"Usually you can buy a quota for 500 yuan, which is much more cost-effective than a fine." The civil servant said that as early as the second half of 20 13, some township government agencies took the lead in launching the "task" of civil servants selling houses, prompting township residents to buy houses in cities. Some people found this method and managed to escape. The "sequela" of new town development requires civil servants to sell houses, and county C has also begun to control the construction scale. It is understood that since the second half of last year, County C has stopped the land supply in the suburbs and the North Development Zone, thus controlling the speed of urban expansion. The government department stressed that the focus of future development will shift from the construction of new areas to the transformation of old cities.
The idea of "digesting the stock and strictly controlling the increment" cannot be separated from the reality of the county. Since 2009, C County has started a large-scale new city construction, expanding the city to the north on the basis of the old city and connecting with the development zone. At the same time, county C moved some government departments and public facilities such as hospitals, schools and bus stations to the new town, and started the construction of commercial housing communities to divert the population from the urban area to the new town. According to the data, according to the above development scale, in the process of urban expansion, the area of county C has increased by more than half. In this process, the county-level financial burden is heavy. Although the income from land transfer makes up for the finance to a certain extent, if the house cannot be sold smoothly, the real estate-related tax revenue will face a gap.
The reporter found in the new district in the northeast of the county that there are nearly 20 real estate development projects, large and small. Some projects have been completed and put into use, some are still under construction, and some plots have been developed by enclosure. According to incomplete statistics, if all the real estate projects in the county are developed, it can accommodate more than 50,000 households, while the population of County C is only about 200,000. This situation of oversupply has caused a large number of unsalable real estate projects. According to the reporter's understanding, the occupancy rate of real estate projects that have been delivered in the region is obviously low, and the occupancy rate of some projects is less than 50%.
In fact, due to the existing assets such as houses, house prices are not too much burden for the residents of this city. At present, the average price of projects in Chengbei New District is mostly at the level of 2,000-3,000 yuan/square meter, and the highest price of new houses in urban areas does not exceed 4,000 yuan/square meter, while the average monthly income of working-class people in this county is about 1500 yuan. After several years of demolition compensation, many families have more than two sets of real estate. With the increase of market supply, stagflation of house prices may become a reality. Take the earlier "Happy Family" project as an example. When the second phase of the project was sold at 20 1 1, the price was about 2400 yuan/square meter. At present, the third phase of the project is on sale, and the average selling price is about 3000 yuan/square meter, with an average price increase of about 20% in two years. Similar to other unsalable projects, the current sales situation of the third phase of "Happy Family" is not good, and it is in an embarrassing situation of "having a price but no market".