[Edit this paragraph ]CPI is the consumer price index.
Consumer price index (CPI) is a measure of the price of a fixed basket of consumer goods, which mainly reflects the price changes of goods and services paid by consumers, and is also a tool to measure the level of inflation, expressed as percentage changes. In the United States, the main commodities that constitute this indicator are divided into eight categories, including: food, wine and beverages; Domicile; Clothing; Education and communication; Transportation; Medical and health care; Entertainment; Other goods and services. In the United States, the consumer price index is released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics every month, and there are two different consumer price indexes. One is the consumer price index for employees, or CPI-W for short, and the other is the consumer price index for urban residents, or CPI-U for short.
Reference index
(CPI) is a lagging data, but it is often an important reference index for market economic activities and government monetary policy. CPI stability, full employment and GDP growth are often the most important social and economic goals. However, from the reality of China, the stability and importance of CPI are not as authoritative as the developed countries think, and the economic activities of the market will be adjusted according to the changes of CPI. In recent years, the GDP growth of European and American countries has been fluctuating around 2%, and the CPI has also fluctuated between 0% and 3%, while the situation in China is completely different. The first is the rapid growth of the domestic economy. In the past two years, GDP growth has been above 9%, but CPI fluctuates little. On the surface, it can be said that "the government freely regulates the economic operation and the market behavior is very rational". Second, within one year, CPI fluctuated greatly, with a difference of several percentage points; Under normal circumstances, unless there is a major emergency in economic life (such as the Asian financial crisis of 1997), it is impossible for CPI to fluctuate greatly, so CPI in China fluctuated abnormally in 2004. Third, with the sharp fluctuation of CPI, the domestic economic inflation rate was once too high, and the negative interest rate of people's savings was serious. For a time, residents' savings bid farewell to negative returns, and the shadow of deflation reappeared. Such an economic environment is worrying, so how to understand the CPI index has become a very important issue.
computing formula
The calculation formula of CPI is CPI= (the value of a group of fixed commodities at current prices) divided by (the value of a group of fixed commodities at base prices) multiplied by 100%. CPI tells people how much it costs to buy a representative group of goods today than at some time in the past. For example, if the average family in a country spends 1.995 on a group of goods in 800 yuan every month, and in 2000 it spent 1.000 on this group of goods, Then the consumer price index of this country in 2000 is (based on 1995) CPI =1000/800 *100 = 654330. In our daily life, we are more concerned about the inflation rate, which is defined as the percentage of price changes from one period to another. The formula is t = (P 1-P0)/P0, where t is the inflation rate in the period of 1, and P 1 and P0 represent the price level in the period of 1 and P0 respectively. If the above-mentioned consumer price index is used to measure the price level, then the inflation rate is the percentage of changes in the consumer price index in different periods. If the consumer price index of an economy increases from 100 last year to 1 12 this year, then the inflation rate in this period is t = (112-100)/1.
PPI: Producer Price Index (PPI): The main purpose of PPI is to measure the price changes of various commodities at different production stages. Generally speaking, the production of goods is divided into three stages: first, the primitive stage: the goods have not been processed; Second, the intermediate stage: the goods need further processing; Third, the completion stage: the goods will not be processed at this time.
PPI is an indicator to measure the trend and degree of ex-factory price changes of industrial enterprises, an important economic indicator to reflect the price changes in the production field in a certain period, and an important basis for formulating relevant economic policies and national economic accounting. At present, there are more than 4,000 PPI survey products in China (including more than 9,500 specifications), covering all 39 industrial categories, involving 186 survey categories.
According to the law of price transmission, PPI has certain influence on CPI. PPI reflects the price level of production, while CPI reflects the price level of consumption. Generally, the fluctuation of the overall price level first appears in the production field, then spreads to the downstream industries through the industrial chain, and finally affects consumer goods. The industrial chain can be divided into two parts: one is the production with industrial products as raw materials, and the conduction of raw materials → means of production → means of subsistence. The other is the production with agricultural products as raw materials, with the transmission of agricultural means of production → agricultural products → food. In China, as far as the above two transmission paths are concerned, the second one, that is, the transmission of agricultural products to food, is relatively sufficient. Since 2006, the rise in food prices has been the main factor driving the increase in CPI. But the first one, that is, the transmission of industrial products to CPI is basically ineffective.
Because CPI includes not only the price of consumer goods, but also the price of services, CPI and PPI are not strictly corresponding in statistical caliber, so it is possible that the changes of CPI and PPI are not consistent. CPI and PPI continue to deviate, which does not conform to the law of price transmission. The main reason of price transmission fracture is that the industrial product market is in the buyer's market and the government artificially controls the price of public goods.
Under different market conditions, there are two possible situations in which the price of industrial products is transmitted to the final consumption price: first, under the seller's market conditions, the price increase of industrial products caused by rising costs (such as the price increase of raw materials such as energy and electricity, water and coal) will eventually be successfully transmitted to the price of consumer goods; Second, in the buyer's market, because supply exceeds demand, the price of industrial products is difficult to pass on to the price of consumer goods, and enterprises need to reduce profits to absorb rising costs. As a result, the prices of products in the middle and lower reaches are stable and may even continue to fall, and the profits of enterprises are reduced. For some enterprises that are hard to digest the rising costs, they may face bankruptcy. The prices of industrial products that can be successfully transmitted (mainly the prices of energy raw materials such as electricity, coal and water) are currently mainly within the scope of government price adjustment. In the case that the price of upstream products (PPI) continues to rise, enterprises cannot smoothly pass on the upstream costs, which will increase the price of final consumer goods (CPI) and eventually lead to a decrease in corporate profits.
PPI is usually used as an important indicator to observe the level of inflation. Because food prices rise due to seasonal changes, and energy prices often fluctuate unexpectedly, in order to reflect the overall commodity price changes more clearly, changes in food and energy prices are generally excluded, thus forming a "core producer price index" to further observe the changing trend of inflation rate.
In the United States, the data collection of the producer price index in the United States is the responsibility of the US Bureau of Labor. They collected data from major manufacturers through questionnaires. The collected base month is the quotation of 2300 commodities in the current week, including 13, and then it is weighted and converted into decimal form. For comparison, the base period is 1967. Generally speaking, when the producer price index rises sharply and continues to accelerate, the corresponding response of the country's central bank is to raise interest rates to prevent inflation from rising rapidly, so the possibility of currency appreciation in the country increases; or vice versa, Dallas to the auditorium
Real economists pay attention to PPI, while the media pays attention to the core PPI. Excluding food and energy, it is called the "core PPI" index to correctly judge the real trend of prices-this is because the prices of food and energy have always been affected by seasons and the relationship between supply and demand, and fluctuated violently. The core PPI will be misleading in the short term.
How to calculate, PPI mainly pays attention to the prices of industry, mining, raw materials and semi-finished products. At present, it has also joined the service industry, but the proportion is small. The US Department of Labor will conduct surveys in more than 25,000 enterprises, get product prices, and allocate proportions and weights according to different industries and their proportions in the economy.
PPI can reflect the fluctuation of raw material prices obtained by producers, calculate the expected CPI, and thus estimate the inflation risk.
In short, the rise in PPI is not a good thing. If producers shift costs, eventually the price of consumer goods will rise and inflation will rise. If it is not transferred, corporate profits will decline and the economy will have downside risks.
GDP:GDP is the English abbreviation of GDP, that is, gross domestic product (translated as GDP and GDP in Hongkong and Taiwan Province). Generally, GDP is defined as the total market value of all final products and services produced by a country or region's economy in a certain period (a quarter or a year). In economics, GDP and GNP are often used to measure the comprehensive level of economic development in this country or region. This is also a widely adopted measure in various countries and regions at present. GDP is the most concerned economic statistical data in macroeconomics, because it is considered as the most important indicator to measure the development of national economy. Generally speaking, GDP has three forms, namely, value form, income form and product form. From the perspective of value form, it is the difference between the value of all goods and services produced by all residential units and the value of all non-fixed assets goods and services invested in the same period, that is, the sum of the added value of all residential units; From the perspective of income form, it is the sum of income directly created by all resident units in a certain period; From the product form, it is the final use of goods and services minus the import of goods and services. GDP reflects the total added value of various industries in the national economy.
[Edit this paragraph] Accounting method of gross domestic product
First, use the expenditure method to calculate GDP.
Expenditure method is used to calculate GDP. It is based on the use of products and adds up the market value of the final products produced in one year, which is the expenditure of the final products purchased in that year. This method is also called final product method and product flow method.
If you use Q 1, Q2? ............ ……Qn represents the output of various final products, P 1, p2...pn represents the price of various final products, so the formula for accounting GDP by expenditure method is:
q 1p 1+q2p 2+……QnPn = GDP
In real life, the final uses of products and services are mainly household consumption, enterprise investment, government purchase and export. Therefore, using the expenditure method to calculate GDP is to calculate the sum of the expenditures of residents, enterprises, government procurement and exports in a certain period of time in a country or region.
Household consumption (represented by the letter C) includes expenditures on durable consumer goods such as refrigerators, color TVs, washing machines and automobiles, expenditures on non-durable consumer goods such as clothing and food, and expenditures on services such as medical care, tourism and haircuts. The expense of building a house is not consumption.
Enterprise investment (indicated by the letter I) refers to the expenditure of increasing or updating capital assets (including factory buildings, machinery and equipment, houses and inventories). Investment includes fixed assets investment and inventory investment. Investment in fixed assets refers to the investment in building new factories, purchasing new equipment and building new houses. Why does housing belong to investment rather than consumption? Because houses, like other fixed assets, are used for a long time and consume slowly. Inventory investment is the increase (or decrease) of the inventory value held by enterprises. If the national enterprise inventory is 200 billion dollars at the beginning of the year and 220 billion dollars at the end of the year, then the inventory investment is 20 billion dollars. Inventory investment may be positive or negative, because the inventory value at the end of the year may be greater or less than the inventory at the beginning of the year. Enterprise inventory is regarded as an investment because it can generate income.
The investment included in GDP refers to the total investment, that is, the sum of replacement investment and net investment, and replacement investment is depreciation.
The division between investment and consumption is not absolute, and the specific classification depends on the provisions in actual statistics.
Government procurement (represented by the letter G) refers to the expenditure of governments at all levels on purchasing goods and services, including the expenditure of the government on purchasing arms, military and police services, office supplies and office facilities of government agencies, holding public projects such as roads, and opening schools. The wages paid by the government to government employees are also purchased by the government. Government purchase is a substantial expenditure, which is manifested in the two-way flow of goods, services and money, directly forming social demand and becoming an integral part of GDP. Government purchase is only a part of government expenditure, and another part of government expenditure, such as government transfer payment and interest on public debt, is not included in GDP. Government transfer payment is the expenditure that the government does not pay for the goods and services produced this year, including the expenditure that the government uses for social welfare, social insurance, unemployment relief, poverty subsidies, old-age security, medical and health care, agricultural subsidies and so on. Government transfer payment means that the government can transfer and redistribute income among different members of society through its functions, and transfer the income of some people to the hands of other people. Its essence is the redistribution of wealth. When there is a government transfer payment, that is, when the government pays these fees, it does not get any goods and services accordingly. Government transfer payment is a monetary expenditure, and the total income of the whole society has not changed. Therefore, government transfer payments are not included in GDP.
Net export (represented by the letter X-M, X stands for export and M stands for import) refers to the difference between import and export. Imports should be deducted from the total domestic purchases, because it means that income flows abroad, and it is not the expenditure of buying domestic products; Exports should be added to the country's total purchases, because exports represent the inflow of foreign income, that is, the expenditure on buying domestic products. Therefore, net exports should be included in the total expenditure. The net export may be positive or negative.
The above four items add up to the formula for calculating GDP by expenditure method:
GDP = C + I + G +(X-M)
Second, calculate GDP by income method.
Accounting GDP by income method is to add up all kinds of income obtained by production factors from the perspective of income, that is, to add up wages obtained by labor, land rent obtained by land owners, interest obtained by capital and profits obtained by entrepreneurs to calculate GDP. This method is also called factor payment method and factor cost method.
In a simple economy without government, the added value of an enterprise is the GDP it creates, which is equal to factor income plus depreciation. However, when the government intervenes, it often collects indirect taxes, and the GDP at this time should also include indirect taxes and corporate transfer payments. Indirect tax is a tax levied on product sales, including goods tax and turnover tax. This tax is nominally levied on enterprises, but enterprises can include it in the production cost and eventually pass it on to consumers, so it should also be regarded as a cost. Similarly, there are corporate transfer payments (that is, corporate social charitable donations to non-profit organizations and bad debts of consumers), which are not the income created by production factors, but should be transferred to consumers through product prices, so they should also be regarded as costs.
Capital depreciation should also be included in GDP. Because although it is not factor income, it is included in the total input.
Also, the income of non-corporate business owners should also be included in GDP. The income of non-corporate business owners refers to the income of doctors, lawyers, shopkeepers and farmers. They use their own funds and are self-employed. Their wages, interest and rent are difficult to be divided into wages, interest on their own funds, rent on their own houses, etc. Just like the company's accounts, their wages, interest, profits and rents are often mixed together as the income of non-corporate business owners.
In this way, the formula of income method is:
GDP = salary+interest+profit+rent+indirect tax and enterprise transfer payment+depreciation.
Theoretically, GDP calculated by income method and GDP calculated by expenditure method are equal in quantity.
Third, use the production method to calculate GDP
Accounting GDP by production method refers to calculating GDP according to the output value of various departments providing material products and services. Production law is also called department law. This calculation method reflects the source of GDP.
When using this method to calculate, all production departments should deduct the output value of the intermediate products used and only calculate the added value. Business, service industry and other departments also use the value-added method to calculate. Health, education, administration, family services and other departments can not calculate its value-added, so the value of their services is calculated according to wage income.
According to the mode of production, GDP can be divided into the following sectors: agriculture, forestry and fisheries; Mining; Construction industry; Manufacturing industry; Transportation industry; Posts and telecommunications and public utilities; Electricity, gas and tap water industries; Wholesale and retail trade; Finance, insurance, real estate; Service industry; Government services and government enterprises. The GDP calculated by the production method can be obtained by adding up the GDP produced by the above departments, adding the net income of foreign factors and considering the statistical error term.
Theoretically speaking, the GDP calculated by expenditure method, income method and production method are equal in quantity, but there are often errors in actual accounting, so it is necessary to add a statistical error item to make them consistent. In actual statistics, the expenditure method of the national economic accounting system is generally adopted as the basic method, that is, the GDP calculated by the expenditure method is taken as the standard.
Four, two national income accounting systems
The above is the western national income accounting system (SNA). Based on western economic theory, this system holds that the labor activities that create material products and provide services are all value-creating production activities, and takes gross domestic product (GDP) as the core index for accounting national economic activities. Western national income accounting system is a national economic accounting method adopted by most countries at present, and it is a more reasonable and scientific accounting system. First of all, with the trend of globalization, integration, marketization and informationization in the world economy, information, knowledge, technology and labor departments are playing an increasingly important role in economic life, and the value created by the tertiary industry accounts for an increasing proportion in modern economic life, while the position of material production in the whole economic life is relatively declining. Therefore, intangible productive services should be brought into the national income accounting system, and it is necessary to bring the market value of all paid services into GDP. Secondly, it is reasonable to distinguish between nominal GDP and real GDP when calculating national income according to SNA. Of course, this system is also flawed in measuring the total output level, economic development level and living standard of the national economy with GDP. For example, non-market trading activities (such as housework and self-sufficient production) cannot be reflected, people's enjoyment and safety of leisure cannot be explained, the degree of environmental pollution in a country cannot be reflected, and there are inevitably some double counting, and so on. Before the end of the Cold War in 1990s, there was another national economic accounting system, namely, the Material Product Balance Sheet System (MPS) of the centrally planned economy countries, which was adopted by the former Soviet Union, Eastern Europe and China. This system is based on Marx's theory of reproduction, with gross social output value and national income as the basic indicators to reflect the total achievements of national economic activities. This accounting system has adapted to the highly centralized planning management system and played an important role, but with the reform and development of the global market economy system, its defects have become increasingly prominent. For example, it can not reflect the development of intangible production departments such as information and labor services, which is not conducive to reflecting comprehensive national strength and rationally adjusting industrial structure; Can not systematically reflect the movement of social funds, which is not conducive to national macro-management and regulation; It can't reflect the whole picture of the national economic cycle and the links between each link, which is not conducive to the country to grasp the comprehensive balance of the whole economic operation. Therefore, Eastern Europe, Russian and other countries with economies in transition and China gradually adopted the western national economic accounting system. Since 1985, China has officially adopted GDP index as the main index to assess the development of national economy and formulate the strategic objectives of economic development. At present, China has calculated and published the figures of GDP, but has not yet calculated and published the figures of GDP, national income, personal income and disposable personal income.