1 difference. Now a city plans to increase its population from 6.5438+0 million to 3 million in n years, which means that the population is increasing and the housing is not enough. 15 years later, the situation of fewer people and more houses is becoming more and more obvious. At present, among the old urban residents, the typical family structure is 7 people and 3 suites, and the only child has become a common practice. Chen's generation, grandparents, grandparents are all "post-50s" in their sixties, and they are all only children. In the second generation of Chen, mom and dad are both "post-80s". Chen Sandai, 5 years old "after 10". Twenty years later, three generations of Chen and Zhang got married. At present, Chen and Zhang have 14 people and 6 suites, and the three generations of Chen finally inherited these 6 houses (or the demolition value). If it is a business family, there may be 10 sets. The grandchildren of the fourth generation of couples, that is, the "post-80 s", are currently descendants of four families * 7 people = 28 people at present. There were only three people left in the end. 4 households * 3 houses = finally inherited by the fourth generation of couples 12 houses (or demolition value). If it is a business family, there may be more than 20 sets.
They may not keep the house of 12, but for the city, the land of 12 will not disappear. Even if you are not an old city resident, you may eventually inherit several houses (or the demolition value). Some grandparents are "post-40 s" when they are around 70 years old, so the situation of fewer houses and more houses will be very serious after 15 years.
The second difference. At present, there are more than 50 million idle houses in cities nationwide, houses under construction and for sale/kloc-0 /50,000 sets, and more than 200 million people in cities rent or board houses/5 people = more than 40 million sets of rented houses and boarding houses, from which 5 million sets of houses with high consumption and repeated self-occupation are deducted. Generally speaking, the number of non-owner-occupied houses may exceed 65.438 billion in 2065.438+00. Because the purchasing power of real estate speculators is much stronger than that of effective self-occupation, it may increase to 65.438+0.4 billion sets in fifteen years. Now everyone is hoarding idle houses. At that time, the task was to digest idle houses, so house prices could not be high.
The third difference. There is no property tax now, and the cost of investment speculation is low. It is said that the land is in short supply, the housing market is crazy and the housing prices are extremely high. 15 years later, real estate speculation has stopped and the "speculative market" has returned to the "people's livelihood market". After the big bear market, the price returned to a reasonable level. The ratio of property tax to house price will be higher and higher, more and more like the United States: it is easy to buy a house, but difficult to raise a house. High property tax leads to low house prices.
The fourth difference. Now the landlords are chasing the land in the city. Extremes must be reversed. In the next fifteen years, a large amount of funds will inevitably be diverted to chase the huge amount of rural land that will be transferred around the city. According to the principle of connected pipe, capital flow will lead to the increase of rural land prices around the city, while urban land prices will fall.
The fifth difference. Now the land is very tight, and the land price is called out after dozens of rounds of bidding at the auction venue, which is much higher than the normal price. 15 years later, it was found that when the surplus materials were auctioned, the result was always lower than the normal price.
The sixth difference. Now it is said that land will become more and more expensive. /kloc-After 0/5 years, it was found that the land in Hong Kong had hardly increased, because it could only be reclaimed from the sea. A city with a population of 2 million on the mainland can expand by 10 times as long as it has been extended to the suburbs in four directions, so the land can't be as expensive as Hong Kong.
The seventh difference. The developer's profit rate determines the level of demolition fees. In recent years, house prices have been rising continuously, so the profit of building houses is extremely high. From the determination of the demolition fee price to the opening sale, the house price has risen a lot. Now developers have the most money and the most generous demolition fee. 15 years later, developers are as "pitiful" as bosses in most industries, with difficulties in selling houses, high costs, high taxes and fees, low profits and lack of money. Developers themselves are eating vegetables, why do you want to move households to eat big fish and big meat?
The eighth difference. A positive attitude determines the level of demolition costs. 15 years later, because there are fewer people and more houses, there are many idle houses waiting to be demolished. No one lives, no one cares, and no one demolishes them. As a result, the "old lady's house" affects the city appearance and is unsightly. Therefore, developers are very anxious and forced to demolish more houses to contribute to improving the city's appearance. In this way, "the developer asks for demolition" becomes "the developer is asked for demolition", and the land for demolition is easy to get. 15 years later, in order to promote the demolition and reconstruction, the houses to be demolished still need to pay a certain property tax on the basis of tax reduction. The house to be demolished can't be occupied by oneself, nor can it be rented out, and you have to pay property tax and property fee, just like carrying a stone on your body, demolishing it early and liberating it early. At that time, there were three buildings in a certain area that needed to be demolished, and the developer only needed to demolish two. Therefore, it may become "the owner speaks well and asks for priority demolition".