Third-and fourth-tier cities have become the focus of destocking.
"Looking at the draft of the Politburo meeting, there are two paragraphs that deserve high attention: First, resolve the real estate inventory, speed up the citizenization of migrant workers, promote the reform of the housing system based on meeting new citizens, expand effective demand, and stabilize the real estate market. Second, urbanization is the only way to modernization ... We must promote the citizenization of migrant workers and accelerate the urbanization rate of registered population. " Xiaobo Liu, an economist, analyzed that from the above two paragraphs, the state regards "accelerating the citizenization of migrant workers" as the focus of real estate destocking. The specific approach is to make it easier for migrant workers to settle in cities through the reform of the household registration system; By reforming the provident fund system, migrant workers and self-employed people will be included; Help migrant workers buy houses in cities through financial subsidies, tax rebates or tax relief.
Some people in the real estate industry believe that it is obvious that the focus of this policy implementation is in the third, fourth and fifth tier cities, not the first and second tier cities. For first-and second-tier cities, the most effective way to destock is to reduce down payment and "mortgage interest deduction tax". "The focus of the new round of destocking is obviously not in the hot first-and second-tier core cities in the property market, but in the vast third-and fourth-tier cities and some deserted second-tier cities."
The multi-site destocking policy has been upgraded again.
In fact, in the past two months, it has been reported that many third-and fourth-tier cities have introduced housing subsidy policies and upgraded their destocking policies.
In order to encourage local farmers to buy houses in cities, Luoyang, Zhumadian and other cities have recently introduced various financial subsidy policies. Puyang, Henan Province became the city that tried this policy earlier. According to the Implementation Measures of Puyang Municipal People's Government on Supporting Farmers to Purchase Houses in Cities to Promote Housing Consumption, starting from 65438+February 3, farmers will be subsidized per square meter for new commercial housing 150 yuan, for the second set of improved housing 100 yuan, and for the purchase of second-hand housing, 200 yuan will be subsidized per square meter.
It is understood that some cities and counties in many provinces have introduced subsidies and preferential policies for farmers to buy houses in cities. Local government documents show that at least Sixian County, Dangshan County, Tongling City, Suzhou City and many cities and counties in Henan Province have introduced subsidies and preferential policies for farmers to buy houses in cities. At the same time, some cities in Yunnan, Sichuan, Zhejiang and Jiangsu provinces are also conducting pilot projects.
Third-and fourth-tier cities have also introduced new policies. On February 9, 65438, the office of Fuyang District People's Government of Hangzhou issued the Notice on Implementing Rules for Promoting the Healthy and Stable Development of Fuyang District Real Estate Market. The preferential policies for housing subsidies in Fuyang District are stipulated. The data shows that since 20 14, more than 50 cities have issued housing subsidy policies, mainly in third-and fourth-tier cities.
Guangzhou-Shenzhen inventory is still at a reasonable level.
An analysis report shows that the current inventory of new houses in China is about 6.869 billion square meters, and the digestion cycle is about 5.7 years. What about Guangzhou and Shenzhen?
According to industry analysis, the total inventory in Guangzhou was13.62 million ㎡ at the beginning of the year and114.25 million ㎡ at the beginning of October, but the digestion cycle decreased from 37.6 months at the beginning of the year to 2 1.3 months. This is due to the good transaction of 20 15 (the monthly transaction volume of1-kloc-0/0 was 6.33 million ㎡, up 42% year-on-year), and the pressure of chemical removal was obviously reduced.
The number of online signing sets of first-hand residential buildings in Guangzhou has been stable at more than 8,000 sets/month for three consecutive months, indicating that the market supply and demand game is relatively stable. It is worth mentioning that, according to the data of Sunshine Jiayuan, as of June 5438+February1May, the sales volume of first-hand houses in Guangzhou was 68,753 sets, which not only decreased by 5,000 sets compared with the same period of last month, but also fell below the inventory level of 70,000 sets for the first time in the past year. According to the monthly average online signing volume in the past six months, the de-chemical cycle has been reduced to 8.4 months, which is close to the lower limit of reasonable inventory cycle of 8- 10 months.
However, some insiders also said that the structural high inventory of Guangzhou property market is still there, and the pressure of digesting supply next year is quite great, so it is not appropriate to take the inventory warning lightly. He pointed out that the saleable inventory in Huadu, Nansha and other districts far exceeds that in other districts, and the subsequent supply of new goods is greater, which is not optimistic; Some land kings are piled up, housing prices are high, homogenization competition is difficult to digest. At the same time, Guangzhou's purchase restriction policy has diverted consumption power to Foshan, Qingyuan and other places, and it is estimated that there are more than 654.38+00000 sets every year.
As for Shenzhen, according to the monitoring, by the end of 1 1, the stock of new houses in Shenzhen was 4 1/10,000 square meters, an increase of 9.7% compared with1,and the stock was 384 19 sets, and the city's decontamination cycle was 6.9 months.
Throughout 20 15, the inventory of new houses in Shenzhen has been at a historical low. This is mainly related to the hot market in the first half of the year and the sharp increase in transactions. The supply of residential land in Shenzhen is very small, and more than 70% of the houses come from long-term old renovation; The self-ownership rate of permanent residents is low, only 30%. These factors lead to the highest level of housing demand in Shenzhen among first-tier cities.
The ratio of deposit to sales of new commercial housing in Shenzhen has been less than 6 months, hitting a new low of nearly 5 years. Wang Feng, director of Shenzhen Real Estate Research Center, believes that the current inventory in Shenzhen is still at a healthy and reasonable level.
20 16 prospect
The property market may play eight cards next year.
20 16 what other "destocking" cards do local governments have? Zhang Hongwei, director of the same policy consulting & research department, believes that whenever the market is depressed, local governments will take some measures to stimulate the recovery and recovery of the real estate market. Judging from the current development characteristics of the property market, there are eight possible measures for non-restricted cities (more than half of second-tier cities and most third-and fourth-tier cities).
1. Reduce the down payment of the first suite: It is estimated that the down payment ratio of the first suite will be reduced from the current 25% to about 20%.
2.RRR cut: It is estimated that there will still be 65,438+0-2 interest rate cuts in 2065,438+06, with a rate cut of about 0.5 point, and there is also an opportunity for RRR to cut interest rates by about 65,438+0 point.
3. The property market tax subsidy policy will be further implemented. At the same time, the first home loan interest rate concessions or government finance will directly give the first home loan support.
4. Strengthen monetary subsidies: further intensify the transformation of shanty towns, and the compensation policy tends to give monetary subsidies (monetary subsidies) to residents who have been demolished, rather than housing distribution in different places (in-kind subsidies).
5. Adjust the standard of ordinary houses.
6. Encourage talents to buy houses.
7. directly combine the household registration system with the purchase of real estate.
8. For specific product types, deed tax concessions or reductions should be given.
(The above answers were published on 2015-12-17. Please refer to the actual situation for the current purchase policy. )
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