Words? |? Zhikujun
Say goodbye to the old and welcome the new, and the new decade of this century officially opens.
In the past 20 19, the turbulent China auto market continued to decline, and car companies began to gather together to keep warm, break their arms and survive in the wind and rain.
Some people describe the past year of 20 19 as "the worst year in the past decade and the best year in the next decade".
However, there are too many uncertainties in the automobile market, and the fog of the continuous decline of the automobile market has not been blown away. The outbreak of COVID-19 epidemic has brought unpredictable influence to the automobile industry in China.
What is the future trend? In the fog, which way is the right direction? Facing the next decade, now is an uncertain future.
Before the Spring Festival, in the article "Tribute to 20 19| China's Adult Ceremony", think tank Jun reviewed the extraordinary 20 19 that China's automobile industry experienced, hoping to help China automobile people better see the road under their feet through the dribs and drabs and profound changes that China's automobile industry experienced in the past year.
Recently, China Automotive Thirty-member Think Tank officially launched "Intelligence Review 2020? |? In the special column of "The Next golden decade of the Automobile Industry", experts from the 30-person think tank of China Automobile were invited to analyze the future pattern and trend changes of China automobile. Following the invitation of Cui Dongshu, the think tank expert and secretary general of the National Passenger Car Market Information Association ("Intelligence Review 2020? |? Cui Dongshu: China's auto market is in danger under the influence of the epidemic. In this issue, we will talk to Zheng Yun, a global senior partner of roland berger Management Consulting Company, a think tank expert.
Facing the impact of the epidemic on the automobile market, Zheng Yun thinks that the first quarter is the peak season except the Spring Festival, according to the annual assessment of 22 million passenger cars and the regular monthly sales curve distribution. According to the impact duration of three months, it is estimated that there will be 5-8% impact in the whole year without the incentive policy of automobile sales.
Therefore, car companies and dealers should speed up product upgrading, such as using financial tools such as financial leasing to empower products, strengthening online content marketing methods, and mobilizing consumers' enthusiasm for buying.
In his view, for independent brands, while continuously improving the competitiveness of products, it is even more necessary to use financial tools at the sales end to stimulate consumers' desire to buy, including the traditional direct lease and leaseback, and also need to quickly strengthen the investment in emerging topics such as residual value management of new energy vehicles. From the perspective of consumer demand, the competitiveness can be enhanced from the perspective of intelligent cockpit and scene automatic driving function.
"The continuous life cycle of consumers and the construction of their own ecological circle is a long-term project and cannot be relaxed." Zheng Yun told think tank Jun that the subversive trend of the development of the whole automobile industry is to change the automobile from a means of transportation to a big intelligent terminal.
Where will China Auto Market Go in 2020?
Think Tank Jun: What impact will the epidemic have on China's auto market? How long will the impact last? ?
Zheng Yun: According to the original judgment, the sales volume in 2020 will increase at the market bottom level of 20 19. However, the extension of the Spring Festival holiday and the isolation of rework personnel will have a great impact on the production and sales plans of automobile manufacturers, parts companies and dealer groups. Depending on the control of the epidemic, it is optimistic that consumers will not have the confidence to shop until at least mid-March, and the overall situation is really not optimistic.
According to the sales evaluation of 22 million passenger cars a year and the regular monthly sales curve distribution, the first quarter is the peak season except the Spring Festival. According to the impact duration of three months, it is estimated that there will be 5-8% impact in the whole year without the incentive policy of automobile sales. ?
Think Tank Jun: As far as market segments are concerned, which brands, price ranges and models will be more affected by the epidemic?
Zheng Yun: Hubei is an important automobile production base. Cars produced in Hubei account for 8%- 10%, and the layout of cars is complete. After the epidemic, all brands will be affected to some extent, which depends on the inventory of brands owned by automobile enterprises with Wuhan as the vehicle manufacturing base. In addition, in the context of the epidemic, the initial demand for car purchase will be more inclined to SUV, and this sub-category may be more resistant to falling. ?
Think Tank Jun: What do you think car companies and car dealers should do?
Zheng Yun: Car companies and dealers should speed up the upgrading of product packages, such as using financial tools such as financial leasing to empower products, strengthening online content marketing methods, and better mobilizing consumers' purchasing enthusiasm. ?
Think Tank Jun: Generally speaking, do you think China auto market will continue to decline or pick up in 2020?
Zheng Yun: On the basis of last year, the lack of climbing motivation will lead to a decline this year.
Think Tank Jun: Will China's new energy vehicle market pick up in 2020? How much will the market space grow?
Zheng Yun: Compared with traditional cars, new energy vehicles will be more resistant to falling, because on the consumer side, new energy products are more and more recognized by consumers, with low TCO, and they are still attractive under the support policies such as licenses and road rights. On the supply side, 2020 is the year when many automobile manufacturers will launch new energy vehicles. In the medium term, it is still optimistic that the new energy market will continue to develop rapidly towards 20% sales in 2025.
Think Tank Jun: How do you view the competition between China brands and foreign brands during the market adjustment period? What do independent brands in China need to do to resist pressure?
Zheng Yun: For independent brands, while continuously improving the competitiveness of products, they need to make better use of financial instruments at the sales end to stimulate consumers' desire to buy, including traditional direct lease and leaseback, and also need to rapidly strengthen investment in emerging topics such as residual value management of new energy vehicles. The continuous life cycle of consumers and the construction of their own ecological circle are a long-term project and cannot be relaxed. From the perspective of consumer demand, the competitiveness can be enhanced from the perspective of intelligent cockpit and scene automatic driving function.
Think Tank Jun: 2020 is the last year of subsidies for new energy vehicles. What impact do you think subsidies will have on the development of new energy vehicles in China?
Zheng Yun: For some powerful new energy automobile brands, they have gradually formed certain advantages in cost and price, so there is no room for price adjustment at all. Because the subsidy has been settled, it is normal for car companies that have been unable to cope.
Think Tank Jun: What impact will the promotion of the double-point policy have on car companies?
Zheng Yun: Double points is still a positive incentive for car companies to develop new energy vehicles. Although there will be pains from financial subsidies to industry self-discipline, from the perspective of the sustainable development of China's automobile industry, the double-point policy needs to be adhered to.
Think Tank Jun: The draft of New Energy Automobile Industry Development Plan (202 1-2035) has been released. How to treat the phased goal of 25% sales of new energy vehicles and 30% sales of new intelligent networked vehicles in 2025?
Zheng Yun: This is still a radical goal, which needs a leap to achieve.
Think Tank Jun: Will the technological development direction of new energy vehicles change? What are the prospects of plug-in hybrid vehicles and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles?
Zheng Yun: At present, we believe that pure electricity and hybrid will definitely be the main technical routes before 2025, and the policy encourages the exploration of new technical routes. However, in new fields such as hydrogen fuel cells, the overall value chain and supply chain are still not complete, and most of them take large-scale activities as an opportunity to carry out pilot exploration, and the application field will not be in passenger cars in the near future.
Think Tank Jun: With the further expansion of China's opening to the outside world, it is urgent to adjust the share ratio of joint ventures. How to treat the stock ratio game between China and foreign countries? What does China need to do?
Zheng Yun: In the past few decades, both China and foreign countries should fully realize their respective advantages in product research and development, lean manufacturing, brand marketing and network layout. , but also established a long-term reliable partnership. Of course, this is a business, and both sides need to communicate frankly and transparently and take care of their own interests. For China, the original advantages mainly lie in marketing and manufacturing. It is necessary to maintain this advantage under the influence of new subversive trends, and at the same time do a good job in consumer life cycle management. At the same time, with the deepening of the stock ratio adjustment, I believe that domestic car companies will make great progress in product management and research and development.
Who is in charge of the ups and downs of the automobile industry?
Think Tank Jun: How to evaluate the impact that Tesla's independent factory in China will bring to China's new energy automobile industry and even China's automobile industry?
Zheng Yun: This will promote the development of new energy vehicles in China. Tesla's catfish effect is still quite obvious, and it will also affect Model. The market segment where 3 is located has a widening effect, which will also provide reference for other car companies, and the competition in this market segment will be more intense.
It will also have a huge impact on China's new energy automobile industry chain. Powertrain will promote the further development of outstanding enterprises such as Contemporary Anpu Technology Co., Ltd., and other links in the industrial chain will also benefit, such as the production and service of new energy components such as battery residual value management, battery recycling and testing, intelligent cockpit field, and consumer life cycle management field.
Objectively speaking, Tesla has brought us more attention to the new energy market. Its products have bright spots, but they are not excellent students with a particularly complete layout in the whole new energy chain. Domestic enterprises still have the opportunity to compete first and then confront each other head-on.
Think Tank Jun: What impact will Tesla bring to China's new car-making forces? Can the new forces that haven't built a car continue?
Zheng Yun: Judging from the transaction volume, whether there is Tesla has little influence on the new domestic car-making forces. Weilai, Weimar and Tucki, which are relatively advanced, have made plans in their respective market segments. Models? The domestic production of Y will have a certain impact on Weilai ES6, but Tucki and Weimar have not competed with Tesla in the market segment. The pressure of new forces to build cars may be greater, but it will not have any impact on the pattern.
Think Tank Jun: Will Tesla's domestic production have an impact on the fuel vehicle market? What does this mean for the whole automobile industry?
Zheng Yun: It won't have a big impact. In terms of sales volume, the whole new energy vehicle market will be more optimistic because of the addition of Tesla, and it will be easier to achieve the original more radical new energy market goal. At the same time, in new fields such as scene-based autonomous driving, it will promote the attention and layout of the overall market.
Think Tank Jun: Will China's advantage in the supply chain of new energy vehicles, which has been painstakingly managed for many years, eventually become "someone else's wedding dress"? Is it still possible for China's own brands to achieve "lane-changing overtaking" by relying on new energy vehicles?
Zheng Yun: There will be no phenomenon of "making wedding dresses for others". Now the global supply chain is relatively transparent. In China's new energy market, which is guided by policies and followed by industries, many supply chain enterprises with global competitiveness have emerged, which is the basis for China's independent brands to achieve "lane change overtaking".
China's own brands also have their own advantages, and they have a deeper understanding of the needs of consumers in China, so they should respond faster. In the context of the transformation of vehicles to intelligent terminals, China's own brands should have more advantages and rely on new energy vehicles to achieve "lane-changing overtaking".
Think Tank Jun: What do you think of the alliance between SAIC and GAC?
Zheng Yun: It's more an attitude. The topic of alliance has been discussed among OEMs for a long time, but there are many difficulties and concerns in landing. OEMs are reluctant to try this in their own way. We can't expect immediate results. For many new topics, such as autonomous driving, it does not mean that the cooperation between SAIC and GAC will produce new breakthroughs. The challenge is whether the specific operation form of the alliance can solve some fundamental problems, such as the acquisition of core technical talents. If there is no difference between SAIC and GAC, cooperation may still be impossible. ?
The alliance shows more the attitude of China's independent brands under the trend of "new four modernizations", and everyone is actively exploring how to better build an automobile ecosystem and learn from each other's strengths. We also expect that the alliance between SAIC and GAC will have bright output, jump out of some traditional state-owned assets restrictions and do some more market-oriented competition, but this is more challenging.
Think Tank Jun: What do you think are the similarities and differences between the alliance between China car companies and the alliance between international giants such as Volkswagen Ford, FCA and PSA?
Zheng Yun: At different stages of the development of the automobile market, China automobile enterprises are more eager to carry out in-depth cooperation in areas where subversive trends are about to appear. However, international brands are more engaged in macro-cooperation in terms of brand and product mix and regional market competition pattern. Personally, I think that when the automobile industry enters the next revolutionary cycle, the object of cooperative alliance should not be discussed only among peers.
Think Tank Jun: After the reorganization of Zebra, Ali gained a controlling stake. How to treat the dispute of discourse right between Internet companies and car companies in the process of cooperation?
Zheng Yun: Zebras are of great significance to China's automobile industry. For cross-industry cooperation, both car companies and internet companies should look for business development opportunities in the overall strategic chess game from the perspective of macro-strategy. For zebra, Ali's actual control is more conducive to further sustainable development relying on YunOS, which is a good result.
Think Tank Jun: The relationship between car companies and Internet companies is very complicated. At present, most car companies have reached cooperation with a number of Internet giants at the same time, and Internet giants are also trying to expand their circle of friends. How to treat this competitive and cooperative relationship?
Zheng Yun: At present, it is still in the primary stage of "staking a horse", and the expansion is to make itself more flexible in operation. To form a more stable pattern, it takes about three or four times to reconcile contradictions, such as forming a relatively focused standard in autonomous driving, such as forming a more mature solution in consumer data processing.
Think Tank Jun: The cooperation boundary between Internet companies and car companies is becoming blurred. Do Internet companies want to build cars?
Zheng Yun: Internet companies have realized that traditional car companies have their own housekeeping skills and it is not easy to build a car.
Think Tank Jun: Some people say that intelligent networked cars are opportunities for new forces to survive, not because they produce electric cars. what do you think?
Zheng Yun: The subversive trend of the development of the whole automobile industry is to change the automobile from a means of transportation to a big intelligent terminal. For the new forces, it is really necessary to take the lead from the perspective of intelligent cockpit to create a differentiated competitive advantage. At the same time, there is no burden for the new forces to build cars, and it is easier to focus on the satisfaction of customer experience.
Attachment: Expert members of China Automotive Thirty-member Think Tank (in no particular order)
Fu Honorary Chairman of China Automotive Engineering Society
Wang Binggang, head of the national expert group on innovative engineering of new energy vehicles.
Anqing Heng, director of China Automobile Industry Advisory Committee and former chairman of BAIC Group.
Zuo Yanan, former chairman of JAC.
Chairman of Zhao Fuquan World Association of Automotive Engineers, President of Tsinghua University Institute of Automotive Industry and Technology Strategy.
Shen jinjun? President china automobile dealers association
Ying Zhao? Researcher, Institute of Industrial Economics, China Academy of Social Sciences.
Lin Lei? Partner and Managing Director of Dacheng Capital
May Song Lin? Weimar Automobile chief data officer
He LUN? Vice President of Netcom Automotive Research Institute
Zhong Shi? Senior auto media person
Deputy General Manager and CSO of Smart Enterprise of Zhang Junyi Ping An Group
Liu Xiaozhi, founder and CEO of Yashilong Technology Co., Ltd.
Xu Xiangyang? Professor, Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Executive Deputy Director, National Passenger Car Automatic Transmission Engineering Technology Research Center.
Cai Wei? Professor harbin university of science and technology, Chief Scientist of Automotive Electronic Drive Control and System Integration Engineering Research Center of Ministry of Education, founder of Jin Jing Electric.
Wu Songquan, Senior Chief Expert of China Automotive Technology Research Center.
Shi, vice president of Tencent Car Federation, CEO of Nanjing Eagle Eye Electronic Technology Co., Ltd.
Gu Jianmin? Chief Technology Officer of Valeo Group in China
Cui Dongshu? Secretary-General of the National Passenger Car Market Information Association
Zheng? Hey? Global Senior Partner, roland berger Management Consulting Company
This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.