My hometown is in northern Guangdong, only 320 kilometers away from Shenzhen. If you take the high-speed train, 1 hour takes 45 minutes to Shenzhen and 45 minutes to Guangzhou.
Although it is close to the Pearl River Delta, it is a pity that it is not within the scope of Greater Bay Area, but based on this, the current real estate situation in third-and fourth-tier cities is still ok.
Since 20 13, a large number of new districts have sprung up in response to the banner of promoting urbanization at that time. At that time, my hometown also followed the trend and set up a high-tech zone. I haven't seen high-tech industries for so many years, but I have seen a number of houses.
Until two days ago, I could see a lot of houses still under construction. I bought a house with five phases, but it is said that there is a planned 10 phase, and there is a supermarket in Country Garden 2-3 kilometers away next door. Now, new products have been launched, and new developers are still developing land, and they are all big developers, such as Poly and R&F.
Many houses are basically common problems in third-and fourth-tier cities. The saturation of the old city, the cancer of residents' new houses in third-and fourth-tier cities, and the drastic shed reform in recent years have basically become the standard of every third-and fourth-tier city, but such high-tech zones are not high-tech industrial zones, but more high-tech residential zones.
Pieces of houses and the ever-flowing population have always made me have a question: who can I sell so many houses to?
1
There are only three kinds of people who can buy houses in third-and fourth-tier cities: people who buy houses in county towns in the process of urbanization, people who just need to buy houses locally, and investors who have heard the news.
Let me talk about the first one, the process of urbanization. Since 20 15, house prices have generally increased all over the country. The logic of this round of housing price increase in third-and fourth-tier cities is to borrow inventory, especially the east wind of monetization of shed reform. Before 14, most of the shed changes were physical resettlement, that is, directly demolishing the house to compensate your house, but simply updating the stock. However, under the call of 15 destocking, the shed was changed to monetized resettlement.
The proportion of monetary resettlement for shed reform has increased from less than 30% in 20 15 to 60% in 20 17.
The state is also encouraging monetary resettlement, and the special loan for shed reform reached the highest value in 20 16. In other words, after the house is demolished, you will lose money when you buy a house. Residents have a lot of spare money. For the sake of currency preservation, they will basically consider buying real estate, thus releasing a large number of housing demand. Real estate in third-and fourth-tier cities has also become hot, causing expectations of rising house prices.
In the past three years, many people should have realized that the houses in the third and fourth lines of their hometown have quietly arrived at 1000+, which is largely due to the demand for buying houses pushed up by the monetization of sheds in previous years.
The second point is the spillover demand generated by the crowding-out effect in first-and second-tier cities. If you don't buy houses in first-and second-tier cities, investors can only buy houses in third-and fourth-tier cities honestly, thus releasing a lot of housing demand.
The same is true from the data.
In 20 17, the sales area of commercial housing in China reached a new high, reaching 167 billion square meters, of which the market share of third-and fourth-tier cities was as high as 64.3%, and the monetization of shed reform also contributed 20.9%. The house prices in many hot-spot third-and fourth-tier cities at least doubled.
The house in my hometown also rose from 4000 in 2065,438+05 to 7000 in 2065,438+07.
However, the vigorous monetary shed reform has come to an end after all, and the proportion of monetized resettlement is gradually shrinking. The proportion of 20 18 monetized shed reform was reduced to 50%, and 20 19 was reduced to 40%. The demand for house demolition and resettlement almost broke out, and the rise in house prices lacked support, so there may be a downside risk.
After 17, many houses in third-and fourth-tier cities stopped rising, and most of them started sideways. This year, under such special circumstances, housing prices in some third-and fourth-tier cities began to fall.
During May Day, I specially went to the real estate in my hometown new area, and most of them were on sale. The lowest total price was 580,000 yuan, and I bought a small three-bedroom apartment of 90 square meters, which was less than 7 square meters, which really dropped a little.
2
In addition to the demand brought by urbanization, the most important thing for houses in third-and fourth-tier cities is to rely on local demand.
The fundamental secret of rising house prices actually lies in people, and only with people can house prices be supported.
As for the explanation of population, it is impossible to kill with a stick. There are so many third-and fourth-tier cities in China, with net population inflow and net population outflow.
How to distinguish and distinguish specifically?
I can only say that the vast majority of the population in third-and fourth-tier cities are basically in a state of net outflow, and even if the resident population is increasing, it may be in a state of net outflow.
For example, in Zhaoqing, the latest data shows that the permanent population of Zhaoqing increased by 35,400 in 20 19, but in fact, the registered population of Zhaoqing is hundreds of thousands more than the permanent population. The increase in the permanent population here may be due to the natural population growth, rather than the increase in talent mobility. In fact, Zhaoqing is still a city with a net outflow of population. Even one of the nine cities in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area needs to be vigilant.
Another example is Zhuhai, which is also a third-tier city, but has maintained a net inflow of population. In 20 19, the growth rate of permanent residents ranked first in Guangdong province with a growth rate of 7%, so such a city can start with confidence.
Generally speaking, the advice that can be given is that even if the budget is limited, please stare at the third-and fourth-tier cities in the metropolitan area to buy.
Focus on: Shanghai, Shenguanhui, Guangfo, Suzhou, Xichang, Nanjing and Hangzhou are developed economic circles, and Beijing, Tianjin, Chengdu, Changsha, Zhuzhou and Xiangtan, Chongqing and other 15 metropolitan areas are emerging metropolitan areas. The probability of trampling on pits in third-and fourth-tier cities in these metropolitan areas will be lower.
In 20 19, "shrinking cities" appeared for the first time in the Key Tasks of New Urbanization Construction in 20 19 issued by China Development and Reform Commission. According to the survey data, 22 cities may be shrinking in the past three years.
What is this concept? In some places, the population is decreasing and the cities are shrinking.
We should pay special attention to these "shrinking cities". In the future, these cities will either withdraw from counties, cities or even towns or merge with neighboring cities. Without the support of population and industry, the downside risk of housing prices will be even greater.
Nowadays, metropolitan areas and urban agglomerations are the direction of future urban development, which will inevitably lead to the rise of a small number of third-and fourth-tier cities, while most third-and fourth-tier cities are facing atrophy and extinction.
The new population can't keep up with the supply of new houses, and the supply and demand are greater than the demand, so the cycle of new houses will naturally slow down, not to mention the second-hand housing market is not active.
So those who are still rushing to buy a house on the third and fourth lines, I advise you to be cautious.
three
Investors who heard the news early really made a profit. On 20 14, my cousin went back to his hometown and bought a house with an average price of 4k. Later, 18, he sold it for 6k+ and earned more than 100.
Although the income is not as much as that of first-tier cities, it is still a steady investment. It was because I saw the sweetness that I entered in 17. I didn't expect the high position to take over, but now it is firmly trapped.
For many third-,fourth-and fifth-tier cities, high-speed rail is an opportunity for them to get closer to first-and second-tier cities, but it is also a double-edged sword, constantly transporting people to first-and second-tier cities, causing population outflow.
Therefore, it is not enough to judge whether a third-and fourth-tier city has investment value. If there is a subway or light rail, it is the best opportunity.
If a third-and fourth-tier city has a subway or light rail that can directly connect with first-tier cities or strong second-tier cities (or is planned), and the population is in a state of net inflow every year, then such a city is a rising third-and fourth-tier city in the future, and the rest can be basically abandoned.
For Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, we can give priority to Foshan, Dongguan, Huizhou and Zhuhai, while Jiangmen and Zhaoqing can give up.
four
On the last day of May Day, I went to Bo Er's home, which is less than 3 kilometers away from my new home. The building where Bo Er's family lived was the earliest development and the most mature supporting facilities in the whole new district at that time. The underground parking lot was full, and we finally found a temporary parking space on the street. I read a lot of foreign license plates. Bo Er said that many owners, like them, only come back to live on holidays occasionally, and most of the time they are still vacant, basically holding the idea of appreciation and selling in the future.
It seems that I am not the only one in into the pit, and my hometown is just a microcosm of the vast third-and fourth-tier cities. For the buyers who have been in into the pit, I can only say that I am optimistic, and I will wait and see for more than 10 years.
I heard that the real estate I bought has launched new products, and also engaged in special activities. The sales department also crowded a lot of people. Look at those people who are still trying to get back to their hometown to buy a house. Are they like batches of green leeks?