For a long time, the central government has not criticized urban housing prices by name.
Since the fourth quarter of 20 18, the trend of real estate in China has changed from "resolutely curbing the rise in housing prices" to "stabilizing land prices, stabilizing housing prices and stabilizing expectations". It seems that the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has not invited people to tea on behalf of the central authorities for a long time.
The reason is simple: real estate should obey the overall situation, and real estate regulation should obey the overall situation.
What is the overall situation? I don't need to elaborate.
However, just yesterday, April 16, the National Bureau of Statistics released the sales prices of new commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities in March. In the interpretation of the data, it is rare to criticize the rapid rise of housing prices in several cities by name.
It is noteworthy that compared with the same period last year, more than 70% of urban housing prices rose year-on-year. Among them, the sales prices of new commercial housing in Hohhot, Guiyang and Dandong increased by more than 20% year-on-year. According to industry insiders, for places with obvious fluctuations in house prices, it is necessary to increase regulation. -CCTV original
In these cities, the increase in house prices has been booked by the central government.
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It is the standard action of the National Bureau of Statistics to announce the sales price of new commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities once a month.
The interpretation of the data by Xinhua News Agency, CCTV and People's Daily can be regarded as the overall evaluation of the central government's real estate regulation and control work in various places.
The data released in March is like this.
Looking at the data alone is really boring, especially in the case of "stable housing prices", which basically does not rise or fall.
But if you look at the news specially compiled by CCTV Finance, you can analyze a lot of "overtones".
Overall trend—
Obviously, Xiaoyangchun, a so-called second-tier hotspot city, does not seem to be reflected in the data. The growth rate of first-and second-tier cities has decreased, while the third-and fourth-tier cities are not as cool as most experts think, but actually have increased.
that this is not the important question. Dandong once again occupies the C position in the 70 largest cities in China, with an increase of 1.9% from the previous month, leading the country.
The last time was a blessing for Comrade Tolkien, who stopped the east wind brought by the nuclear test on the peninsula.
However, why this time, we can also see the incomprehension and worry of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development from the text.
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First-tier cities, the situation is normal, with two ups and two downs, with a small range.
Obviously, the four front lines have deeply understood the profound meaning of "stabilizing housing prices". The regulation is loose and tight, and the housing prices rise and fall, and there is no big move. The price increase is less than 1%.
First-tier cities are not the focus of the report, but third-tier cities.
Explain the rise in housing prices in third-tier cities, CCTV News said so.
The sales price of new commercial housing in 35 third-tier cities rose by 0.7% month-on-month, an increase of 0.3 percentage points over the previous month.
Among them, housing prices in Nanchong (1.0%), Changde (1.5%), Jinzhou (1.5%), Qinhuangdao (1.4%) and other cities rose by more than 1%. -CCTV original
The most important point, in the words of Liu Weimin, Institute of Market Economy, National Research Center, is the interpretation that house prices in these four cities exceed 1%.
In the process of urban infrastructure construction, these cities are becoming more and more perfect, attracting more and more people and carrying more and more capacity for industries.
Note: The full name of National Research Center is the State Council Development Research Center, which is directly affiliated to the State Council for comprehensive policy research and decision-making consultation. Its main responsibility is to provide services for the leaders of the State Council.
But we don't know who this Comrade Liu Weimin is.
But since Comrade Liu was on CCTV, he represented the above meaning to a certain extent.
In other words, these four cities are developing well, and house prices should go up.
However, for typical third-tier cities, the price increase in several cities exceeded 1% in March.
For example (month-on-month growth in March compared with February):
Dandong-1.9%
Wuxi-1.0%
Anqing-1.0%
Pingdingshan-1.3%
Beihai-1. 1%
Dali-1.3%
But why didn't these cities enter the list of four cities? I can't fully explain these cities without completely comparing their demographic changes and industrial development data.
However, it is obvious that for the majority of third-tier cities, especially those with better economic development, the central government's focus on stabilizing housing prices is to control the decline and slightly increase, and appropriate increases should be affirmed or even encouraged.
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However, for those cities that are more than 20% year-on-year (note that they are year-on-year, that is, compare March 19 and March 18), the central government has issued a serious warning.
It is noteworthy that compared with the same period last year, more than 70% of urban housing prices rose year-on-year. Among them, the sales prices of new commercial housing in Hohhot, Guiyang and Dandong increased by more than 20% year-on-year. According to industry insiders, for places with obvious fluctuations in house prices, it is necessary to increase regulation. -CCTV original
Hohhot -22.8% (year-on-year data, compared with last March, the same below)
Guiyang -20.6%
Dandong -20.2%
It is normal for the above three cities to be named. Who told you that the year-on-year increase exceeded the red line?
However, there are two year-on-year growth rates that have exceeded the red line, but they have not been named. Xi 'an-increased by 24% and Dali-increased by 2 1.9% respectively.
I think, after reading this report, the leaders in Guiyang and Hohhot are definitely not satisfied.
In terms of status, we are all provincial capitals.
On the price increase, Guiyang in Hohhot is smaller than Xi 'an.
On the impact of housing prices, Guiyang in Hohhot is not as good as Xi 'an.
Is it because Xi has become a national central city and we are not?
Hey, it makes no sense.
However, the author suspects that Xi 'an has no name, which may be due to the change of Xi 'an population data.
Last year, Xi 'an led the country in human resources. Is it because of this that it has become the "gold medal for avoiding death" in this city?
However, jokes are jokes. The last sentence of the report, "Where there are obvious fluctuations in house prices, we should strengthen regulation", and hit the point. For cities with a year-on-year increase of more than 20%, the state has shown a yellow card.
At least these cities will not allow "warm-up" regulation in the near future.
The floating interest rate of banks has been raised and will not be lowered in the near future.
Whether to introduce "cooling down" regulation like Changsha and conduct another market inspection depends on personal political consciousness.
In short, a pot of "West Lake Longjing" of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development can also be defeated.
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This report is very informative.
Apart from that list, two red lines are the most noteworthy.
Most importantly, the year-on-year growth rate of all monitored cities in China should not exceed 20%, no matter whether you are first-line, second-line or third-line.
In third-tier cities, the chain-on-chain increase principle can reach 1%, but it cannot exceed 2%.
As for the red line of second-tier cities, please keep an eye on the four big brothers in the north, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, especially the big brothers.
Because, 20 19, he is the city that knows "real estate" best in China.
Whether the real estate market in China can rise does not mean whether it can be bought, but whether it can rise rapidly. In Koharu in April, which cities can buy and which cities can only see but not buy? If you are interested, you can add "Mi Zhai Song Fu Gui" to discuss this issue. There will be a large number of people who can't get through for a while, please wait patiently, thank you!
Today's recommendation:
According to the statistics of Xi 'an in Ke Rui, Xi 'an property market 15 weeks (2019.4.8-2014), the newly approved area of commercial housing19600 m2, of which the newly approved area of commercial housing/.
1. How many land transactions were made in Xi 'an last week?
2. How many projects have been opened? What is the chemical removal rate?
3. How was the house price in Xi last week?
4. Which projects were the most popular last week?
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