How to judge the trend of real estate prices?

The two ultimate factors that determine the price of real estate are supply and demand, and all other factors affect the price either by affecting supply or by affecting demand. If the supply exceeds the demand, the real estate price will decrease; Demand exceeds supply, and real estate prices are rising. In order to fully understand the factors affecting supply and demand, we must first understand the composition of real estate prices.

The price composition of commercial housing mainly includes land development fees; Engineering design fee; Construction and installation costs; Equipment engineering cost; Other engineering development fees; Commercial housing circulation fee; Real estate enterprise profits and taxes.

The above items constitute the basic content of commercial housing prices in China. Real estate enterprises in various regions generally include the above components when calculating the price of commercial housing. However, there are some differences in the calculation methods of real estate price composition in different regions. This difference is mainly due to the different specific conditions of commercial housing development in different regions and the different housing price policies of local governments.

The level and rationality of the above expenses directly affect the construction cost of the house, that is, affect the formulation of the house price. In addition to the above hard indicators, there are also some soft indicators that also affect housing prices.

1. Social factors

Social factors have a great influence on real estate prices, mainly including the following aspects:

(1) Population distribution. The most important social factor is population distribution. If the population in a certain area increases, the demand for real estate will increase, or if the population is concentrated in a certain area, the demand for real estate in this area will also increase, and the real estate price in this area will generally rise.

(2) Family composition. The change of the traditional concept of family composition has also had a certain impact on the real estate price. For example, the extended family system centered on the vertical connection between father and son has basically disappeared, and it has been replaced by a small family centered on husband and wife, which has increased the demand for residential units, especially in cities.

(3) Urban conditions. Urban development will increase the demand for residential land and land price level; The construction of public facilities will also raise the land price level in this area; Education and social welfare will affect the social and cultural level and living standard, and then affect the real estate price.

(4) Architectural style and quality. The upgrading of architectural style and quality will increase the construction cost, and the real estate price will inevitably rise.

2. Administrative factors

The administrative factor is that the government supports or restricts the development of real estate from the perspective of public welfare, which generally includes the following contents:

(1) Land use planning and control. There are many laws and regulations on land use in China, mainly including Land Law, Building Law and Urban Planning Law. Land use planning and control based on these laws and regulations have great influence on real estate prices. As land is divided into industrial zone, residential zone, commercial zone and other different types, land prices will change greatly.

(2) Control conditions such as land and building structure and disaster prevention. Real estate itself must pay attention to safety, but also to ensure the safety of the public. For example, real estate development is not allowed to collapse, and buildings should have fire protection. These regulations also have an impact on real estate prices.

(3) Real estate tax system. The state's control of land rent and rent will affect the real estate price and real estate tax system, and will have a direct or indirect impact on the supply and demand of real estate, thus causing fluctuations in real estate prices.

(4) Housing policy. What kind of housing policy the state implements, whether financial institutions and local public organizations assist the supply of land and housing, and the trend of the state controlling and assisting individual housing construction will inevitably affect the real estate price.

3. Economic factors

Changes in economic activities directly affect the price of real estate. The impact of economic activities generally includes the following aspects:

(1) level of savings and investment. The improvement of savings and investment level shows that the total expenditure of urban residents in China has increased, and most of the expenditure has been spent on housing, so economic growth has affected the demand for real estate to a certain extent.

(2) Financial and financial conditions. The financial situation directly affects the real estate price. The economic downturn will lead to the tightening of monetary policy. If this situation continues for a long time, not only the demand for real estate will decline, but also the supply of real estate, which will have a great impact on real estate prices. In addition, the state's policy of adjusting the economy through fiscal and taxation means also has a great impact on real estate prices.

(3) Technological innovation and changes in industrial structure. Technological innovation is not only the driving force of investment activities, but also the foundation of economic growth. The change of industrial structure has a great influence on equipment investment and enterprise investment, so both of them will have a certain impact on real estate prices.

(4) tax burden. The change of tax burden affects the finance of enterprises, and the increase of tax burden usually inhibits industrial activities and leads to the change of real estate prices.

(5) Price, wage and employment level. Price changes lead to changes in monetary value and affect real estate prices. From the perspective of wages and employment level, the real estate price in cities with high per capita income is high, and vice versa.

(6) Transportation system. The situation of transportation system directly affects the development and decline of a region, and the opening of new transportation will inevitably promote the development of land and regional economy, thus raising the price of real estate.

4. Regional factors

Regional factors refer to the regional characteristics produced by the combination of natural conditions and social, economic and administrative factors in a specific real estate area, and their influence on the real estate price level in this area. According to the different types of real estate, the conditions that need attention are also very different.

(1) industrial zone. We should pay more attention to the following regional factors: the location relationship with product market, raw material procurement market and related industries; Construction status of roads, ports, railways and other transportation facilities; Power resources and drainage costs; Supply and demand of the labor market; Danger of public hazards such as dirty water and air pollution; Administrative control.

(2) Residential area. The regional factors that should be paid attention to in residential areas are: sunshine, temperature, humidity, wind direction and other climatic conditions; The occupation, education level, social class and other living environment of local residents; The width and structure of the street; Distance from downtown and transportation facilities; The layout of commercial street; Water, heating, electricity and gas supply facilities; Distribution of schools, parks and hospitals; Probability of floods, earthquakes and other disasters; Degree of noise, air pollution, environmental pollution and other public hazards; Natural landscape, etc.

(3) business district. The factors that should be paid attention to in business circle are: the size of hinterland and the situation of tourists; Customer's mode of transportation and traffic conditions; Business category and competition status; Creativity and credibility of operators in this area; Prosperity; Income level, etc.

5. Individual factors

The individual factor of real estate price refers to the influence of its individual characteristics on real estate price.

Individual factors: mainly refers to the location, area, topography, geology and foundation of the land; The width, depth and shape of the land; Sunshine, ventilation, dry and wet conditions; The relationship between adjacent streets, public facilities and hydropower facilities; Area, structure, materials, equipment, construction quality and cost of the building; Restrictions on buildings by various laws and regulations; Harmony between architecture and its environment.

To sum up, the factors affecting real estate prices are very complicated, and it is difficult for most real estate investors to judge the trend of real estate prices. The best way is to analyze the development trend of supply and demand of local real estate, the current real estate policy of our government and the details of the local real estate market.