At present, only the point system for buying houses without households in Shanghai is called "priority policy", but the specific details have to wait for the official follow-up explanation.
"Five-year regular sales" is the most concerned policy of "New Shanghai Seven Articles", which is similar to the regulation policy introduced before the Spring Festival in Hangzhou. On October 27th, 65438/kloc-0, Hangzhou issued a regulation policy, one of which was that "if the winning rate of new commercial housing projects within the city's restricted purchase scope is less than or equal to 10%, they shall not be transferred within five years from the date of obtaining the certificate of immovable property rights". Like Hangzhou, Shanghai also offered a "restricted sale" after the overheating of the first-hand housing market to curb the influx of investment and speculative funds into the property market.
Combined with the recent intensive policies in some big cities, Yan Yuejin, research director of Yiju Research Institute, believes that the regulatory curtain for comprehensively solving the housing problem in big cities has been officially opened this year. Many people, including consultants and intermediaries, agree with Yan Yuejin that the current regulation in Shanghai is to stabilize housing prices and prevent the market from overheating.
Yan Yuejin pointed out that "giving priority to buying houses for five years" is actually a trap of the previous purchase policy; At the same time, it also refers to the practice of other cities, and sets the conditions for restricting the sale of priority subscriptions, so as to keep out the real estate speculators who want to obtain housing through priority purchases. Similarly, this move can also reduce the market expectations of those properties with more customers.
High premium interview for housing enterprises.
Another person in the industry believes that Shanghai will once again increase the regulation of the property market after the start of the Year of the Ox. The fuse may be that the land market heats up first, and high premium plots appear, worrying about the land market temperature or passing it on to the sales port. This is mainly to stabilize housing prices and curb overheating in the market.
On February 20th, Sunac Jianfa Consortium won the pure homestead in Putuo District with a total price of 6.452 billion yuan, with a floor price of 84,300 yuan/m2 and a premium rate of 36. 15%. The plot belongs to a railway crossing with a total construction area of less than 80,000 square meters. Without self-sustaining requirements, it can be said that it is a real scarce land. However, on the east side of this plot, it is the homestead with a total price of 3.06 billion yuan won by Dahua Group in June 5438+February last year, when the floor price was only 47,400 yuan/square meter. The land price has nearly doubled in two months, and the unit price of the surrounding second-hand houses is close to 60,000 yuan/square meter. "Flour is more expensive than bread", although it can't completely point to the hot land market, it must be that the regional plate is overheated.
Soon after, the official account of "Shanghai Putuo" WeChat posted a message. In view of the high premium transaction of the plot, the Putuo District Government immediately interviewed the relevant responsible persons of Sunac Shanghai and the project company, and the interview was presided over by the relevant responsible persons of the District Planning and Resources Bureau and the District Housing Management Bureau. During the interview, the district government reiterated the requirements of the state and the city for real estate regulation and control, and said that it would unswervingly implement the determination that "houses are used for living, not for speculation" in order to achieve the goal of "stabilizing land prices, housing prices and expectations". It is clearly stated that the transferee is required to fully realize the seriousness of the policy, make full mental preparations, and reasonably adjust expectations.
However, in cities with "price limit", there is a common phenomenon: a new offer is often upside down and there is room for speculation. The government can lock in the holding period, increase the cost of real estate speculation and deter speculative demand. In order to reduce market expectations, the "New Shanghai Seven Articles" also put forward land price-limited bidding. The insiders believe that the floor price determines the future selling price, especially the price of flour and bread is close, the market is expected to rise, and buyers are willing to enter the market. Land price limit helps to stabilize expectations. Subsequently, the corresponding land acquisition methods will be formulated to clarify who can win the land after reaching the price limit.
In addition, the leased plot provides a separate supply plan, which is separate from the marketable commodity plot. Previously, the two were incorporated into the supply plan, but the leased land could not form an effective supply. This can fully ensure the sufficient stability of the land for sale, and at the same time, sufficient supply will also help to shift the land price.
The traditional sales season of Xiaoyangchun is coming, and the market trend has attracted much attention. Similar to the situation in Hangzhou property market, although Hangzhou implemented a "big ban" on real estate speculation funds at the end of 1, it is still difficult to stop the winning rate of a wave of red disk less than 10% years ago. After Shanghai's "12 1" policy, there has also been a phenomenon of multi-person lottery in first-hand real estate.
In order to prevent the property market from overheating, Shanghai continues to make up for the shortcomings in the regulation policy, and draws lessons from the practices of other hot cities, emphasizing strict implementation first and then seeing the effect. It is not ruled out that a series of regulatory measures will continue to squeeze speculative demand.
Li Xiaoxiao, a senior analyst at Tongce Research Institute, pointed out that the "New Shanghai Seven Articles" focus on Articles 2 and 7, and several other policies on rectifying market order and strengthening market management have been made before. In this document, only the strict implementation of policies is emphasized.
Second other cities have implemented price-limited bidding. At present, some popular sectors in Shanghai are facing price inversion, and the government is facing enormous market pressure, demanding strict implementation of the price limit policy. Setting the house price in advance in the land transfer link and bidding for the land price independently by real estate enterprises will help to control the land price in the early stage and achieve the goal of stabilizing the house price.
Seventh housing sales restrictions only include "new commercial housing purchased in accordance with the preferential policies for housing purchase". At present, only three properties in Shanghai are piloting the priority purchase policy, and the subscription situation is general, which has little impact on market expectations at present.
Strengthen intermediary management and control
In the "New Shanghai Seven Articles", the intermediary management will be further strengthened and the normative behavior of the intermediary market will be controlled. Shanghai has entered the stock market, and intermediaries play an important role in trading. By controlling and standardizing the behavior of intermediary enterprises, the speculative intention is suppressed. It can be seen that this year's property market is mainly to prevent overheating. If the expected effect cannot be achieved, the possibility of continuing to raise prices will not be ruled out.
The causes of the real estate market are very complicated, too cold or too hot, not a word "imbalance between supply and demand". In Shanghai's second-hand housing market, the turnover has remained at 39,000 sets in recent months, and the intermediary is considered to have a boosting effect.
Before the regulation, the highest increase in house prices was in the core area of the inner ring in downtown Shanghai. In contrast, the central region is in the stage of compensatory growth. At the end of last year, the listing price of a 90-square-meter house in a community in Pudong Central was more than 6 million yuan. It has risen to 9 million after the Spring Festival, but it has never been sold. According to the feedback from the intermediary salesman, although the house price has risen to 80,000 yuan/square meter, there are many people who want to buy a house recently, and there is no suitable listing.
265438+20 th Century Business Herald reporters visited some stores and interviewed some buyers and sellers. It was found that because some intermediaries monopolized houses by exclusive VIP, the high transaction price gave the owners confidence and made them think that they could sell their houses at a better price through some intermediaries, which led some intermediaries to adhere to the policy of balancing the interests of owners and buyers and returning prices to rationality, but the living environment was worrying.
The intermediary smelled a sensitive smell. Around the Spring Festival, only Baoshan Dahua plate opened five new intermediary stores. These intermediary stores are in the expansion cycle. It is understood that Red Star Macalline Ai Jia, owned by Red Star Macalline, and several acres of real estate owned by Cui Yuan, which is controlled by Fangduoduo, have gradually expanded from the outer ring to the urban area since the end of last year, opening stores on a large scale.
In order to grab the housing, some intermediary stores promised the owners to sell at a high price, which boosted the housing price to some extent. Another intermediary salesman pointed out that "exclusive housing" is a monopolistic behavior, resulting in the house may not be sold in a short time, and the customer's bargaining space is also less.
The transaction fell, Xiaoyangchun is no longer?
Intermediaries pointed out that the introduction of the New Deal shows that the transaction price of second-hand houses is mainly stable and tends to be rational in the later period. But at present, we need to consider the price trend; The transaction volume has dropped a lot.
"Recently, the market turnover has fallen sharply, and the transaction cycle and the viewing cycle are very long." The aforementioned intermediary salesman reflected that since the new policy, the cycle and speed of second-hand housing transactions have slowed down a lot, but most landlords have a good mentality. Some owners recently lowered their prices by about 0.05%-0.07%.
In fact, since the second half of last year, the amount of second-hand housing in Shanghai has remained at a high level every month, which has been reduced a lot. The main reasons for the current decline in transactions are: the inventory itself is not too much, and the scope and quantity that can be seen are also small; After the implementation of the "12 1" New Deal, the value-added tax on second-hand houses was exempted from "2 to 5", and the change of taxes and fees also increased the difficulty of selling houses; In addition, some intermediaries do exclusive housing, and customers have restrictions on viewing houses.
According to the feedback from the salesmen of several intermediary stores, whether Xiaoyangchun can appear as scheduled depends on the market turnover and customer response in March. As the data of second-hand houses have not been made public in February, from the transaction data of first-hand houses, Xiaoyangchun may be difficult to appear.
According to the third-party data, in March 1, all 12 1 sectors in Shanghai stock market have not yet reached the overall rise, and the differences among the sectors are still obvious. According to the data from February 1 to February 2 1, the number of first-hand housing transactions has been halved year-on-year.
It is true that no matter what the subsequent market trend is, Shanghai's attitude of blocking real estate funds from all aspects is already obvious. On the same day, the Office of the Leading Group for the Steady and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market in Hangzhou issued the Notice on Further Regulating the Order of the Real Estate Market, proposing to restrict the purchase of legal auction houses and strictly investigate the requirements for operating loans and consumer loans.
The latest regulation in Shanghai and Hangzhou is only 1 month from the last round of regulation, and the policies were released on the same day. A macro background is that at the end of this year 1, Ni Hong, Vice Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, led a team in Shanghai and Shenzhen, pointing out that the city government should fully understand the importance of maintaining the stable and healthy development of the real estate market, unswervingly adhere to the position that houses are used for living, not for speculation, and should not use real estate as a short-term means to stimulate the economy. Recently, Ni Hong also led a team to Hangzhou, Zhejiang, and Wuxi, Jiangsu to investigate and urge the implementation of a long-term mechanism for the stable and healthy development of the real estate market, reiterating that "housing is not speculation", not taking real estate as a short-term means to stimulate the economy, earnestly implementing the main responsibility of the city and ensuring the implementation of the decision-making arrangements of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council.