First of all, the total inventory in Hangzhou is really high, but there is a serious imbalance among regions. There is almost no new land in the old city, and the old houses can't be demolished, which leads to the high price of new houses. But the second new house may not even be as good as the new house, let alone the old house twenty or thirty years later.
The purchase restriction is generally moderate, and it is speculated that it is only a temporary means to deal with the short-term rapid rise. If Hangzhou wants to continue to attract talents, the price jump is not good, so ZF has successors. For example, if you buy a house with a foreign household registration, you need to have a record of continuous payment of social security. On the basis of killing the staff from other places in Hangzhou, limit investment. Those who say that buying a house is free from restrictions are simply funny. If they were the owners of Wenzhou real estate speculators, they would have registered in Hangzhou. If you are an investor in Shanghai, it is impossible for you to enter Hangzhou for a house.
Therefore, if housing prices continue to grow wildly, a more stringent purchase restriction policy will appear with a high probability. Basically, foreign investment will be eliminated, and the rest is the demand of local residents in Hangzhou. Therefore, in the remaining time of 20 16, the probability that house prices will continue to skyrocket is very small, and the inertia will increase slightly, and then it is more likely to stabilize. As for the way to 20 17, it depends on the region. The main city and Qianjiang New City, the core area of Binjiang and the core area of Haichuang Park are likely to remain stable, and may also rise slightly if the currency is loose. Relatively distant places, such as Linping and Xiasha, often have a large supply at the same time. Personally, I feel that there will be a cooling-off period, the price of new houses may be borne, and second-hand houses may not hold up first. The most important thing is whether 20 17 will keep monetary easing? If the Fed does not raise interest rates at the end of 65438+February, then the probability of 17 is ok. If the interest rate is raised, it may be transmitted in the second half of 17. If money is tightened, investors will be further reduced. The price is determined by supply and demand. The demand is less, but the supply is still large.
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