There are only 20 100 billion housing enterprises left.
In 2022, the scale competition of housing enterprises braked suddenly, and the number of over 100 billion housing enterprises was reduced by half compared with last year, leaving only 20. Sales declined, debts expired, housing enterprises faced with liquidity difficulties, and bad news of layoffs and defaults kept coming from the industry. However, Liu Shui, research director of the Enterprise Department of the Central Reference Institute, believes that real estate is an obvious cyclical industry. With the implementation of a new round of support measures in 2023, industry confidence will be enhanced, and the sales of housing enterprises will be significantly improved. Housing enterprises should give consideration to safety and development to meet the new cycle of the industry.
From 20 15 to 202 1, the real estate industry has achieved seven consecutive years of growth. But by 2022, the industry scale growth has pressed the stop button. According to the data released by Ding Zuyu Real Estate Appraisal Society in 2023, in 2022, the transaction volume of commercial housing nationwide was 13.3 trillion yuan, and the transaction area was10.36 billion square meters. Compared with the scale of 202 1 18.2 trillion yuan and 179 billion square meters, the decline rate is over 20%.
The sales scale of commercial housing in large and medium-sized cities has also generally declined. Ding Zuyu pointed out that the average transaction area of commercial housing in 100 cities nationwide decreased by 40% year-on-year. The transaction area of new houses in Chongqing, Wuhan, Hangzhou, Ningbo, Changsha and other cities decreased by more than 50% year-on-year, and even decreased by 70% in Chongqing, with an annual turnover of 5.79 million square meters.
Ding Zuyu pointed out that only 40% of 100 real estate enterprises were acquiring land before this year, and 80% of them were concentrated in 22 cities. On the other hand, since 2020, urban investment enterprises have sprung up everywhere. Since the centralized land supply, the proportion of urban investment and land acquisition has increased from 3 1% and 5438+0% in 2026 to 46% in 2022.
In 2022, the sales threshold of each echelon of the top 100 real estate enterprises was significantly lower than the same period of last year, and both were lower than the same period of recent years. Among them, the threshold of TOP 10 housing enterprises' sales transaction amount decreased by 4 1.9% year-on-year to 16735438+0 billion yuan. The sales threshold of TOP30 real estate enterprises was 50.72 billion yuan, down 55.8% year-on-year. By the end of 65,438+February, the sales thresholds of TOP 100 and TOP200 real estate enterprises have also been greatly reduced to1161000000 yuan and 2.39 billion yuan respectively. In addition, in 2022, only 20 large-scale housing enterprises exceeded 1000 billion, and the number of 100 billion housing enterprises decreased significantly.
Reasons for the sudden decline of 100 billion housing enterprises
In 2022, the China real estate market as a whole continued the downward pressure since last year, with low industry confidence and insufficient market demand and purchasing power. Affected by epidemic factors, market supply and demand and transactions showed no obvious signs of recovery, and corporate sales in each quarter were lower than in previous years.
The growth rate of real estate development investment dropped from 4.4% at the end of 2002/kloc-0 to -8% in the third quarter of 2022, which dragged down GDP growth by about 1.5 percentage points, fixed assets investment by about 3 percentage points and retail sales of social consumer goods by about 4.5 percentage points.
Throughout 2022, almost all indicators of real estate have gone out of a continuous downward curve. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the investment in real estate development decreased by 9.8%+0- 1 1 in June 2022, of which 19.9%+0 1 in June 2028. Commercial housing sales decreased by 26.6% year-on-year; The funds in place of real estate enterprises decreased by 25.7% year-on-year, and decreased by 35.4% year-on-year in June 5438+065438+ 10.
In the face of the downturn in the property market, in 2022, over 300 provinces and cities issued nearly 1,000 policies. However, due to the lack of confidence of buyers, the market is still in the process of bottoming out, and the downward trend has not really reversed. Industry insiders predict that in order to restore the confidence of buyers, it is expected that relevant departments will continue to exert their strength on the demand side in 2023.
What about housing enterprises in 2023?
As netizens expected: all the bad things are in the winter of 2022.
The three-year epidemic has finally come to an end. There is no doubt that boosting the economy is the theme of the next 2023. At the end of the year, Liu He, Vice Premier of the People's Republic of China reiterated that real estate is a pillar industry of the national economy, and high-level officials wrote in the Strategic Plan for Expanding Domestic Demand (2022-2035) to promote the healthy development of residents' consumption. The Central Economic Work Conference put stabilizing real estate in the task of preventing and solving major economic and financial problems, and proposed that the real estate industry should make a smooth transition to a new development model.
It is foreseeable that in view of the downturn in the property market, the policy in 2023 will focus on guiding the real estate industry to achieve a soft landing as soon as possible, and driving the sales of commercial housing, real estate investment and land market to stabilize and rebound.
What is a good product? The criteria for judging are not based on housing enterprises, but on customer feelings. According to the Carnot model, when a house can meet the basic needs, is cost-effective and can provide some surprises, buyers will think it is a good product. In the past, under the high turnover mode, residential products focused on standardization, but after the changes in epidemic situation, policies and customers, product diversification in the residential market will become a trend.
In order to seize this trend, housing enterprises need to return to customer needs, constantly explore the potential changes in customer life scenarios and life concepts, and provide differentiated products with surprises. At present, the industry generally focuses on apartment functions to meet the needs of customers' health, wisdom and value.
Under the storm, the industry has awakened from the traditional three-high model of high turnover, high leverage and high debt, and began to return to productism.
In 2023, only by seeing the situation clearly, grasping the policy and market opportunities, actively studying and understanding customers, realizing the timely response of product supply to market demand changes, and smoothing the virtuous circle of demand-product-new demand, can the supply and demand sides succeed in the new cycle and new model market.