After the news of the cancellation of the purchase restriction spread for a long time, Langfang City, Hebei Province finally waited for the official announcement of the purchase restriction and the loose adjustment of the sales restriction policy. Can the property market around Beijing, which has been silent for a long time, be ignited again?
Data Map: Tongyan expressway Yanjiao Exit Interchange Hub. Liu
Langfang officially announced the cancellation of purchase restriction
"Beijing Back Garden" and "the first town around Beijing" ... all kinds of names revolve around Yanjiao Town, Langfang, Hebei Province, which is only 30 kilometers away from the center of Beijing and across the river from Tongzhou. Among them, the name that can directly reflect its characteristics is probably "Sleeping City".
This is because in Yanjiao, a group of people "live in Beijing and sleep in Yanjiao". They work in Beijing, but because of the high housing prices in Beijing, they choose to buy a house or rent a house in Yanjiao, go out early and return to work in Beijing.
Recently, the "Sleeping City" has undergone new changes. According to the people's government of Langfang City, Hebei Province, the "Six Measures to Support the Healthy Development of the Real Estate Industry" recently announced by Langfang City shows that the restrictive purchase conditions that are not suitable for the current real estate market situation such as household registration and social security (individual tax) are cancelled. At the same time, the housing sales restriction period requirements in the "three northern counties" and surrounding counties (cities) around xiong'an new area have also been completely cancelled.
In addition, "policy spree" such as reducing the down payment ratio of housing provident fund, subsidizing the purchase of the first suite, and increasing the amount of provident fund loans are also presented one by one. For example, for households who purchase ordinary self-occupied housing by loans, the lower limit of the interest rate of the first set of commercial personal housing loans is adjusted to be no less than the quoted interest rate of the loan market in the same period minus 20 basis points, and the weighted average interest rate of new personal housing loans in August 2022 in the city is lower than that in April by 30 basis points.
"There are no household registration and social security restrictions on buying a house, and there are no restrictions on housing transfer, and the relaxation is relatively strong; Moreover, the areas covered by the policy are relatively large, especially in cities such as Beisan County and xiong'an new area, and the scope of relaxation is relatively comprehensive. " Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of the research institute, commented.
The industry generally believes that this is a big move around the Beijing property market. Prior to this, in the five years since the introduction of Langfang's "most restrictive purchase order", Yanjiao experienced a roller coaster in which house prices were halved.
Turning point, at 20 17.
The story of the property market around Beijing can be traced back to around 20 12, and the average price of real estate in Yanjiao was only seven or eight thousand yuan a square meter. With 20 15, Tongzhou, which is more than kilometers away from Yanjiao 10, became the sub-center of Beijing, and the Beijing property market heated up sharply on 20 16, and the huge price difference greatly increased the attraction of Yanjiao.
"Since 20 16, the housing price in Yanjiao has risen, mainly due to the housing price increase in Beijing, which has led to a large amount of housing demand spilling over to Beijing and the help of loose monetary policy." Zhongyuan Real Estate Research Institute analyzed that.
In addition to real property buyers, there are many real estate speculators who have heard of this "fertile soil". Leverage, the highest point is 20 17, and the highest unit price of Yanjiao house has soared to nearly 50,000 yuan per square meter.
But the "roller coaster" soon reached the node where it fell. From June 2065438 to June 2007, Langfang's purchase restriction was upgraded: if non-local registered households can provide local tax payment certificates or social insurance payment certificates for more than three years, they will be restricted to 1 apartment, including new commercial houses and second-hand houses; Local household registration is limited to 2 sets.
Most people who buy houses around Beijing are people who work in Beijing and pay taxes and social security. This part of the buyers has been greatly reduced, and the scale of market transactions has dropped rapidly. According to the data of the think tank center of the research institute, the average transaction price of new houses in Langfang reached a high of 1 1364 yuan/m2 in 2065438, and then fell to 9628 yuan/m2 in 2022, falling below 10,000 yuan for the first time in four years.
"Langfang's real estate market, especially the commercial housing in the three northern counties (Dachang Xianghe Gu 'an), has experienced a great decline in volume and price in recent years. Since it reached a high point in 20 17, many real estate prices have dropped by 50% or more, which is very rare in key and hot areas in China. Li, chief researcher of the Housing Policy Research Center of Guangdong Urban Planning Institute, introduced.
Since the beginning of this year, affected by the local epidemic, the transactions around Beijing, Gu 'an and Xianghe have been even more depressed. According to Zhuge's housing search data, Langfang's transaction volume in the first half of the year was only 6,763 sets, only 40% of last year's transaction level. Many people in the industry believe that from the perspective of stabilizing the real estate market, stabilizing growth, ensuring the delivery of houses and benefiting people's livelihood, there is an urgent need to introduce a bailout policy in the area around Beijing.
The relaxation of restricted sales has long been a clue. In June this year 17, the official website, Langfang Municipal Government, announced six policies and measures to support the virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry. However, the first measure was not announced at that time, only "slightly". Compared with the other contents of today's policy understanding card, it is basically consistent with the contents of "Six Articles in the Gallery".
Data Map: At the gate of a residential area in sanhe city, passengers are queuing to take a customized commuter express. Photo by Shu Gao
Is there any attraction around Beijing?
"From the perspective of policy effects and market trends, the previous policies of canceling the purchase restriction in Langfang City and Beisan County have been implemented, and the down payment ratio has also been implemented by the first set of 20% and the second set of 30%. The mortgage interest rate has been implemented at a minimum of 4.25%, but the market has not recovered." Chen Wenjing, director of market research in the index department of the institute, said.
On the one hand, the housing supply in Beijing has gradually increased in recent years, and at the same time, the epidemic prevention and control is strict, and commuting around Beijing has been affected to some extent, and Beijing's spillover demand has basically disappeared; On the other hand, in recent years, the development of surrounding industries in Beijing is less than expected, and the introduction of population is limited. In the downward phase of the market, the pace of local just-needed entry into the market has also slowed down.
"Therefore, even if policies such as restrictions on purchases and sales are abolished, the boosting effect on the trading market may be limited, and the adjustment situation of Langfang real estate market may be difficult to change in the short term." Chen Wenjing said.
Li also believes that the current market sentiment is very weak, and the future of the property market around Beijing is not very optimistic, and it is difficult to have a significant rebound in the short to medium term.
However, he also mentioned that the New Deal is of positive significance to meet the rigid demand and improving demand, especially the housing demand of some new residents in surrounding Beijing, when the current investment demand has completely withdrawn and the policy of regulating funds and credit is still effective.
"With a down payment of 300,000 to 400,000 yuan, you can buy a two-bedroom apartment of almost 90 square meters in Yanjiao, which is unthinkable in Beijing. Even if commuting is inconvenient, checkpoints are troublesome and the journey takes several hours, I will get married, raise children and provide for the elderly. Whether this is attractive to foreigners working in Beijing, 920,000 commuters around Beijing must have an answer. " A citizen who bought a house in Yanjiao told reporters.