Chairman of Chengdu Qi Li Real Estate Development Co., Ltd.
Shan Zhan da hai
Deputy general manager of Chengdu standard real estate consultant co., ltd.
Li Jie
General manager of Chengdu tianyi tianying real estate consultant co., ltd.
Interpretation of the six articles of the state
Focus: Why are housing prices getting higher and higher?
Spread of mountains and seas: high housing prices under monopoly
First of all, we should know that macro-control refers more to the part of regulating investment and profiteering, with the aim of maintaining the healthy development of the market. House price is a market matter, and regulation is a planned matter. Once it is not handled well, it is easy to go wrong.
In addition, there are also cases. For example, in some cities, the government has reduced housing prices, but land prices and construction costs have not decreased. In the end, some big companies with strong economic strength survived. These oligarchs jointly raise prices, and house prices will skyrocket in a short time. This kind of situation is what no one wants to see.
Liu Xiaoqi: the blowout of demand
Basically, it is such a process: the introduction of macro-control → holding money to wait and see → restraining demand → (the cost is unchanged, the house price has not fallen, but the demand still exists) the demand has soared → the house price has risen. Therefore, some people say that the result of regulation is that house prices will rise again, because urbanization is inevitable and demand will not disappear.
Li Jie: The cost is rising.
In fact, the effect of "National Eight Articles" is obvious, which effectively corrects the excessive housing prices and housing markets in Shanghai, Suzhou and Hangzhou, and warns buyers and sellers in other regional markets to invest rationally.
As for the continuous rise of house prices nationwide, it is because the real estate market and related industries in most cities are growing healthily. The cost of real estate development has not decreased, but has increased, and land prices, design and other expenses are rising.
It is impossible for developers to do the business of reselling money. If the cost does not fall, the house price will naturally not fall.
Focus: dissecting the composition of housing prices
Li Jie: Cost is everything.
The main problem is cost. Compared with the products a year ago, the real estate works supplied by the same regional market today can obviously feel that the design level is higher, the building quality is better, the materials are finer, the supporting facilities are more perfect, and the energy saving, comfort and safety are more prominent. In this way, development enterprises can survive at the expense of constantly increasing costs and surpassing previous projects.
Due to the vigorous development of the real estate market, the upstream industries of the real estate industry are also booming, which makes the land more expensive, the price of seedlings soaring, the price of main materials rising, and the shortage of labor and machinery ... In order to successfully complete the project, developers have to increase costs;
Developers are duty-bound to shoulder social obligations such as protecting the rights and interests of consumers, protecting the rights and interests of migrant workers, raising industry standards, building upgrading standards, and financial risks. Because this industry is related to the national economy and people's livelihood, the real estate development industry, as a pillar industry in China, shoulders the obligation of sneezing for the local market and related industrial chains and taking on colds and illness.
Liu Xiaoqi: Misunderstood the profit.
I quite agree with the above statement. Let me give you an example. Now developers want to do a project, not only to consider the cost of land price, garage, design, but also to undertake many public obligations, such as planning and building a large number of public facilities, which will eventually be transferred to housing prices.
There is another misunderstanding. For example, the developer invested 6.5438+million yuan and finally earned 20 million yuan. Many people think that the net profit of the developer is 6.5438+million yuan, without considering that the whole construction period is three years, and the average profit rate should be divided by three.
Focus: social obligations of developers?
Liu Xiaoqi: He has taken on too many social obligations.
Because the developer is the terminal manufacturer of the house, when the house price is too high, its spearhead will inevitably point to the developer. As a developer, I must clarify here. In order to really reduce housing prices, the state should not only regulate the final product, but also comprehensively regulate all production links at the source of the product. I hope this proposal can arouse the state's great attention to the cost composition of this special product, and the state should not blindly increase the cost of developers.
In order to reduce housing prices, local governments at all levels should take corresponding measures. For developers, one of the cost components is the cost of land. How can the government formulate reasonable and effective policies to effectively control our housing prices? Second, the cost of capital, such as developers to help the construction industry pay "millions of deposits." This is obviously unreasonable. There is a contract between the developer and the construction party, and the wages of migrant workers are paid by the construction party, not the developer. In order to make a profit, the cost of all this will eventually be transferred to the house price. Therefore, governments at all levels should consider whether it will affect the development cost when formulating policies. Will it affect the house price?
Mountain spreads the sea: developers survive in the cracks
It is reasonable for developers to pursue reasonable profits, but they have been living in the cracks. On the one hand, the national government constantly requires products and projects to be high-grade and complete, so that developers can bear social responsibilities and obligations that they should not bear. On the other hand, the government does not allow developers to set prices too high. I don't know, supporting expenses such as civil air defense, garage and public facilities are all passed on to the house price.
To give a simple example, the housing standard of the Planning Bureau must be equipped with 0.7 parking spaces. Imagine that among 100 people, 70% must be able to afford not only a house but also a car. This standard is very high. At present, the garage in Chengdu is not easy to sell and no one rents it. The state has also restricted the car rental price, so that developers have to pass on the cost of the garage to the house price, which will naturally be higher.
Focus: down payment ratio of house purchase
Liu Xiaoqi: Raising the down payment ratio will cause public dissatisfaction.
"It is necessary to increase the down payment ratio of ordinary people to 40% or 50%." I don't agree with this view. Since the country wants to make most people afford to buy a house, it must not do so. Especially for some young people at present, if the down payment ratio is increased by 40% or 50%, then buying a house is even more daunting for them.
In developed countries, even buying a sofa can be used as a bank mortgage. Why can't I buy a house? I think it's completely feasible as long as a perfect reputation mechanism is established. If the government blindly raises the down payment, it will seriously affect the market, cause disadvantages to consumers, and it is easier to stimulate consumers' grievances. Although it is impossible to pay down 10% or 20%, a lower down payment can at least satisfy their psychology of spending in advance.
Shan Chuanhai: Raising the down payment will curb the demand for home purchase.
Previously, the central bank had proposed to raise the down payment to 50%, and many people on the Internet were paying attention to and discussing this issue, but the final result was that it was generally believed that this situation was unlikely to happen. Because this is very harmful to the demand suppression of real estate, it may destroy about half of the demand. In Chengdu, the average house price is 500,000-600,000. If the down payment is half to 200,000 to 300,000, it is not easy for consumers who buy a house at one time. Then, they will wait until the house price rises. In this way, they can never afford to buy a house, which is easy to cause people's dissatisfaction.
Li Jie: It should be treated differently.
In recent years, the real estate market can have a good situation of both supply and demand, which cannot be separated from the strong support of the mortgage policy. If banks continue to increase the down payment ratio of mortgage loans, it will undoubtedly have a great impact on curbing the total transaction volume of housing products in the real estate market. On the positive side, by raising the consumption threshold and reducing the market demand, the profit expectation of developers and the investment enthusiasm of speculators can be effectively suppressed. But for the market, first of all, the market risk of developers will increase. Secondly, due to the widening gap between supply and demand and the extension of the project development cycle, the development cost, operating cost and interest cost will inevitably increase. Third, it will inevitably lead to a large stock of land in the market and a high land acquisition price, while house prices and demand cannot support the contradiction between supply and supply prices. As one of the macro-control measures of "National Six Articles", the down payment ratio of residential products is raised. I think it can only be targeted at the consumer groups who buy the second and above properties.
Focus: real estate information disclosure
Liu Xiaoqi: The data should be classified professionally.
As the competent department, the data published by the housing management system is more real and scientific. The publication of relevant information and data forms an early warning mechanism for the market and is a necessary means to regulate the market. But it can be reported in more professional categories, including opening volume, construction volume, completion acceptance volume and sales volume. Developers and property buyers can get what they want.
Mountain spreads sea: data transparency can eliminate panic
Knowing how many goods are on the market, developers can see them at a glance, and make reference and reference, and then make effective and correct judgments on the market. Timely and constantly adjust the supply structure of products. At the same time, it also lets consumers know how many goods are available in the market for them to make effective choices and avoid unnecessary psychological panic.
The information and data of the real estate market are relatively transparent, which is more conducive to the benign development of the market. Morning Post reporter Li Xiong Guan Min's remarks only represent the views of the guests.